Lecture Rehearsals: 1. Beginnings: Crossing þe Watershed Boundary of 1870
Rehearsal videos for the very start of the course
1. Beginnings
1.1. Grand Narrative (94:36)
1.1.1. Lecture—Grand Narrative
The big picture of human history, with a focus on the Long 20th Century 1870-2010 & the primacy over that period of the economic (20:04):
Readings:
DeLong, Slouching Towards Utopia pp. 1-20, Introduction: My Grand Narrative <https://github.com/braddelong/public-files/blob/master/readings/2021-07-31-slouching-%23tocopyedit.pdf>
1.1.1.1. Lecture—(Optional) Introduction to Polanyi (12:00)
Readings:
Fred Block: Introduction to Karl Polanyi: "The Great Transformation" <https://github.com/braddelong/public-files/blob/master/readings/block-intro-polanyi.pdf >
1.1.2. Lecture—Where Utopia?
The wealth that the world has accumulated since 1870 has been such that nearly anyone alive back then would think we ought to have been able to use it to build a real utopia. Yet we have not. Why not? Some musings… (14:15):
1.1.3. Lecture—Viewing 20th Century Growth
There are a number of different lenses through which we can view economic growth in the Long 20th Century. Here I survey a selection of them… (37:58):
1.1.4. Lecture—Recap
A recapitulation of the big themes of the course (10:19):
1.2. Globalization (83:47)
Readings:
DeLong, Slouching Towards Utopia ch 1 <https://github.com/braddelong/public-files/blob/master/readings/2021-07-31-slouching-%23tocopyedit.pdf>
W. Arthur Lewis (1997): Evolution of the International Economic Order, selections <https://github.com/braddelong/public-files/blob/master/readings/book-lewis-evolution-selections.pdf>
1.2.1. Lecture—Recap of the Grand Narrative
A reminder of what we have done and seen before… (17:47):
1.2.2. Lecture—Technological Growth Estimates
Six watershed boundary-crossing events: (1) The pre-1 secular civilizational acceleration. (2) The post-150 Late Antiquity Pause. (3) The Medieval Reacceleration—& the rise to growth-pole status of the Dover Circle. (4) The 1500 coming of the Imperial-Commercial Age. (5) The 1770 coming of the Brtitish Industrial Revolution Age. (6) The 1870 coming of the Modern Economic Growth Age, the Long 20th Century (07:13):
1.2.3. Lecture—Global North & Global South
Gross international economic divergence in very long-run historical perspective (15:30):
1.2.4. Lecture—Globalization in the Late 1800s
The globalized world of the late 1800s, plus two vignettes: Herbert Hoover and Leon Trotsky (27:32):
1.2.5. Lecture—Pre-WWI Globalization: Lev Bronstein
How an involuntary migrant saw the world during the slaughter of World War I (08:56):
1.2.6. Lecture—The Global Career of Herbert Hoover
One very smart, aggressive man on the make in the globalized world of the 20th century, rising farther and faster than anybody else, possibly ever (10:45):
1.2.7. Lecture—Steampunk Counterfactual Worlds
Two scenarios about what the present and the future been like had there been no Industrial Revolution, or no transition to Modern Economic Growth (15:45):
1.3. Crossing the Watershed-Boundary (46:00)
1.3.1. Lecture—Revving-Up the Growth Engines
Why and how the post-1870 course of technological progress was so very different (22:30):
Readings:
DeLong, Slouching Towards Utopia? ch 2 <https://github.com/braddelong/public-files/blob/master/readings/2021-07-31-slouching-%23tocopyedit.pdf>
2021-09-07 Tu 1.3.2. Lecture—Science, Technology, and Enterprise
The industrial research lab, the modern corporation, and the globalized market are themselves built on top of other important institutions: science, engineering, limited government and property rights, and entrepreneurs as culture heroes. Where did those come from? And how do they work? (23:30):
Readings:
William Baumol (1990): Entrepreneurship: Productive, Unproductive, & Destructive <https://github.com/braddelong/public-files/blob/master/readings/article-baumol-entrepreneurship.pdf (Links to an external site.)>
Michael Polanyi (1962): The Republic of Science <https://github.com/braddelong/public-files/blob/master/readings/michael-polanyi-republic-growth.pdf (Links to an external site.)>
Slides: <https://github.com/braddelong/public-files/blob/master/econ-115-slides-1-beginnings.pptx>
What are the grounds for believing that the Malthusian constraint has been vanquished for the long horizon? None at all that I can see. Under Malthusianism, the mechanism of mean reversion is obvious. But if we have exactly as many children who survive to reproduce as is convenient to us, what guarantees that we will choose exactly replacement? Or a little less than replacement? Or a little more?
I fear that the answer to this question will be disagreeable. But this is surely the most consequential question in human society, more consequential even than global warming. The person who can answer it will deserve a dozen Nobel prizes, and if you can steer a PhD candidate toward a successful answer then you will have achieved, by proxy, an immortal victory.