Briefly Noted: For 2021-07-01 Th
Things þt went whizzing by þt I want to remember...
First:
All I am asking is þt people remember þt þeir model & forecast are a model & a forecast—þt neiþer are “reality”. In þe public discussion, þe right line is: The risks are much greater on þe downside þan þe upside. FULL STOP. More opens þe door for bad actors to confuse people… <https://twitter.com/delong/status/1410591136738004993>
&:
Cecilia Rouse & al.: Distinguishing Between Signal & Noise in Recent Jobs Data: ‘The onset of the COVID–19 pandemic resulted in historically large job losses, and its retreat this spring has allowed millions of Americans to return to work. On average since January 2021, the U.S. has added about 500,000 new jobs per month. However, job growth has also been noticeably volatile month-to-month since January. This volatility in job growth during the pandemic reflects both real volatility—economic reverberations of the pandemic shock—as well as heightened measurement error due to the challenge of collecting statistical data amidst a pandemic. These considerations warn against placing too much weight on any single data point in assessing the current state of the economy, even as the worst of the pandemic in the U.S. fades away…
&:
J. Bradford DeLong: MAGA Maoism :: Project Syndicate :: Jun 30, 2021: What could possess one of America’s two main political parties to transform itself into a cult of personality in which obsequiousness trumps merit? An examination of the Communist Party of China during Mao Zedong’s Cultural Revolution suggests some striking parallels.…
There were always an ample number… who saw… chaos as an opportunity…. Deferentially doing Mao’s bidding could yield career advantages…. And he was old, low on energy, and rapidly on his way to meet Karl Marx in the great beyond…. Those with any modicum of power or self-respect are cut off at the knees. Trump knows they would seek to sideline him as soon as they gained power or forged its own links to the base…. The overwhelming majority of Republicans cling to Trump…. And why shouldn’t he? Trump is dangerous to cross, has a charismatic link with a gullible base, and will not be a political force for much longer. He is old, low on energy, and on his way to meeting Roy Cohn in the great beyond…
One Video:
Lawrence C. Reardon: A Third Way: The Origins of China’s Economic Strategy: ‘Traces the evolution of the coastal development strategy… special economic zones in 1979… fourteen open coastal cities, the Hainan SEZ, and eventual accession to the global trade regime in 2001…. Deng Xiaoping and Zhao Ziyang tackled large-scale smuggling operations, compromised with Chen Yun’s conservative views, and overcame Deng Liqun’s ideological opposition…. Reardon argues that Zhao was the true architect of China’s opening strategy. Readon’s… A Third Way: The Origins of China’s Current Economic Development Strategy insights about the crucial period of the 1980s…
LINK: <https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=37kj81NQKCk&list=PLYlx1JnW9W-Ngl-qM-b3qYZGAR5cfFbHR&index=8>
Very Briefly Noted:
Wikipedia: List of Speakers in Plato’s Dialogues<https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_speakers_in_Plato%27s_dialogues>
Ruby Blondell: The Play of Character in Plato’s Dialogues<https://static1.squarespace.com/static/58d6b5ff86e6c087a92f8f89/t/5913e27d17bffcd4d13e91d9/1494475396924/The_Play_of_Character_in_Plato__039_s_Dialogues.pdf>
John Maynard Keynes: The Mammon of Unrighteousness:: Three Quotes from Keynes’s 1931 Harris Lectures in Chicago… <https://www.bradford-delong.com/2004/07/the-mammon-of-unrighteousness.html>
George Orwell: Confessions of a Book Reviewer <https://www.orwellfoundation.com/the-orwell-foundation/orwell/essays-and-other-works/confessions-of-a-book-reviewer/>
Wikipedia: Township & Village Enterprises <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Township_and_Village_Enterprises>
Jonathan Karl: ’Donald Trump has some words to say about Bill Barr and Mitch McConnell (“another beauty”). It’s a rather lengthy statement that seems to confirm the rage he feels toward his former AG… <https://twitter .com/jonkarl/status/1409361276216696832>
CIA: The CAESAR, POLO, & ESAU Papers: ‘Cold War Era Hard Target Analysis of Soviet and Chinese Policy and Decision Making, 1953–1973… <https://www.cia.gov/readingroom/docs/overview.pdf>
Gregory Han: ’I demand from now on all rice be served this way… <https://twitter. com/typefiend/status/1409876479517790211>
Seth Cotlar: ’Ask most liberals what they want for the conservatives of America and they’ll tell you “access to affordable health care, a clean environment to live in, good schools, and economic opportunities”… <https://twitter. com/SethCotlar/status/1409664846002483200>
Noah Smith: ’One thing I think people don’t realize about motte-and-bailey rhetoric is that sometimes the bailey *is actually true, and people only retreat to the motte due to extreme social pressure… <https://twitter. com/Noahpinion/status/1409933207194112002>
Paragraphs:
Abraham Lincoln: Pro-Slavery Theology: ‘The sum of pro-slavery theology seems to be this: "Slavery is not universally right, nor yet universally wrong; it is better for some people to be slaves; and, in such cases, it is the Will of God that they be such. Certainly there is no contending against the Will of God; but still there is some difficulty in ascertaining, and applying it, to particular cases. For instance we will suppose the Rev. Dr. Ross [2] has a slave named Sambo, and the question is “Is it the Will of God that Sambo shall remain a slave, or be set free?” The Almighty gives no audable answer to the question, and his revelation—_the Bible_—gives none—r, at most, none but such as admits of a squabble, as to it’s meaning. No one thinks of asking Sambo’s opinion on it. So, at last, it comes to this, that Dr. Ross is to decide the question. And while he consider[s] it, he sits in the shade, with gloves on his hands, and subsists on the bread that Sambo is earning in the burning sun. If he decides that God Wills Sambo to continue a slave, he thereby retains his own comfortable position; but if he decides that God will’s Sambo to be free, he thereby has to walk out of the shade, throw off his gloves, and delve for his own bread. Will Dr. Ross be actuated by that perfect impartiality, which has ever been considered most favorable to correct decisions?But, slavery is good for some people!!! As a good thing, slavery is strikingly perculiar, in this, that it is the only good thing which no man ever seeks the good of, for himself. Nonsense! Wolves devouring lambs, not because it is good for their own greedy maws, but because it [is] good for the lambs!!!…
LINK: <https://quod.lib.umich.edu/l/lincoln/lincoln3/1:27.1?rgn=div2;view=fulltext>
Matthew Yglesias: “Future“ & the Future of Media: ‘The crucial thing is this wouldn’t just be a news site with a left-of-center brand (there are plenty of those), but rather one that deliberately tried to elevate left-of-center ideas that are popular with swing voters. Conventional media… [has] young college graduates who live in big cities making stuff that appeals to their friends, who are also young college graduates who live in big cities. It gives a leftward spin… but also a politically toxic framing…. Cultivate an older, more working-class audience… mix straight news with coverage that focuses on the concrete material stakes in government. Jon Tester delivering for Montana public lands. Joe Biden delivering an expanded Child Tax Credit. ARP funding keeping cops and teachers alike employed. You could also do inverse-Fox and elevate the most unpopular right-wing ideas. Bring a well-connected Republican economist on to talk about how the minimum wage should be $0. Find a House backbencher who agrees and interview him. Get conservatives talking about how this is what they’d do if political considerations didn’t stop them…
LINK: <https://www.slowboring.com/p/future-media>
Zachary Carter: The Second Death of Milton Friedman: ‘the secret to Friedman’s success in the world of ideas was his ability to influence American liberals… Rank-and-file conservative voters simply didn’t buy what Friedman was selling…. Friedman argued that a free market economy liberated from every possible stricture of government oversight would serve as an effective way to root out racism from American society… [as] racist policies would put the companies that practiced them at a competitive disadvantage…. Not many conservatives believed it back in the 1960s, either. Goldwater supporters didn’t back him because they expected him to wage a more rigorous crusade for racial justice than President Lyndon B. Johnson—they pulled the lever for Goldwater because they thought he would uphold the Jim Crow social order…. [But] by persuading a good chunk of his political opponents that he shared their values and social goals, Friedman built support for a policy program that ultimately undermined those very liberal objectives. Democrats… did adopt much of his economic worldview, believing it could be adapted to the party’s broader social agenda. The ring of power did not have to be destroyed, but could be harnessed for progressive purposes…
LINK: <https://zacharydcarter.substack.com/p/milton-friedman>
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