BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2021-09-11 Sa

Things that went whizzing by that I want to remember:


Beth MollUnvaccinated Are 5X More Likely to Catch Delta, 11X More Likely to Die: ‘Three fresh CDC studies show vaccines holding up against delta…. Fully vaccinated people are about five times less likely to become infected with delta, 10 times less likely to be hospitalized with COVID–19 from delta, and 11 times less likely to die from the variant…. Fully vaccinated people were about 11 times less likely to get an infection in the pre-delta period, compared with the unvaccinated (with a 95 percent confidence interval of 7.8 to 15.8). That ratio dropped to 4.6 less likely in the post-delta period (with a 95 percent confidence interval of 2.5 to 8.5). For hospitalizations prior to delta, fully vaccinated people were 13 times less likely to wind up in the hospital than the unvaccinated (confidence interval of 11.3 to 15.6). After delta, that ratio dropped slightly to 10 times less likely (confidence interval of 8.1 to 13.3). The fully vaccinated were 16.6 times less likely to die of COVID–19 prior to delta (confidence interval of 13.5 to 20.4) and 11.3 times less likely to die after delta (confidence interval of 9.1 to 13.9)…. For vaccine protection against infection, they estimated that effectiveness dropped from 91 percent to 78 percent with delta. For protection against hospitalizations, effectiveness appeared to go from 92 percent to 90 percent, and for death, from 94 percent to 91 percent. One troubling note was that the declines in protection were more pronounced in older age groups, with those ages 65 and older seeing larger drops… 

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Conor Kelly’A pretty massive gap in COVID case rates has opened up between counties that voted for Trump last Nov and those that voted for Biden. It’s the largest such gap of the pandemic thus far. Right now, counties Trump carried by 10 or more points have over 2x higher case rates… LINK: <https://twitter. com/CohoKelly/status/1436515303324848132>



Aimee Mann (2019): Pleasantville NY <>:

Share Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality



David Reifschneider & David WilcoxAnother Reason to Raise the Fed’s Inflation Target: An Employment and Output Boom: ’In 2012, the Federal Reserve formally adopted an inflation target and set it at 2 percent, in line with the level chosen by many other central banks. In hindsight, this setting left policymakers with too little room to cut interest rates when they want to fight recessions. Many researchers have noted that if central banks raised their inflation targets—either individually or in concert—they could do a better job in the long run of keeping inflation near its target and the workforce fully employed. This Policy Brief highlights an additional and less-noted consequence of raising the inflation target modestly: The economy could enjoy a temporary but substantial boom in employment and output as it adjusted to the increase in the target. Model simulations suggest that if the target were lifted to 3 percent, the unemployment rate could average 3⁄4 percentage point or more below its sustainable level during the first 15 years after the higher target is announced… 

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Jeet HeerRobert E. Lee Loses Again: ‘Du Bois ends by making a crucial distinction between military valour and moral courage: “It is the punishment of the South that its Robert Lees and Jefferson Davises will always be tall, handsome and well-born. That their courage will be physical and not moral. That their leadership will be weak compliance with public opinion and never costly and unswerving revolt for justice and right. It is ridiculous to seek to excuse Robert Lee as the most formidable agency this nation ever raised to make 4 million human beings goods instead of men. Either he knew what slavery meant when he helped maim and murder thousands in its defense, or he did not. If he did not he was a fool. If he did, Robert Lee was a traitor and a rebel – not indeed to his country, but to humanity and humanity’s God”… LINK:

The Time of Monsters
Robert E. Lee Loses Again
Robert E. Lee, like many of his Confederate comrades, was better at fighting the war of reputation in the history books than the actual military contests of the battlefield. In defeat, Lee worked diligently to burnish his reputation. He thereby planted the seeds for the Lost Cause myth that consoled the white South. The l……
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Derek Thompson’Quick thought on the remote work study, which got some people riled up. The 20th century office is a bundle of REAL WORK—desk work, meeting spaces—and SORTA WORK—lunch, chats, serendipitous convos. The biggest advantage of offices isn’t REAL WORK. It’s the SORTA WORK stuff. What I think we only barely understand—because it’s really really hard to study—is how much does in-person “Sorta Work” matter for creativity and productivity? Is idle chatter a critical carrier wave for psychological safety? Or is easily replaceable by Slack, Twitter, etc? My bet for now is that: 1. The Harvard Business Review Mafia has almost certainly overplayed the benefits of serendipity. 2. The pro-WFH group probably underrates how psychologically discombobulating it can be for extroverts to interface w/ peers via only screens for too long… 


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