Dan’s subhead: “Gulf War Three is not going well for the United States”. I believe Dan Drezner knows more than I do about what is currently going on with the Epstein-Netanyahu-Trump War on Iran...
This link is pretty amazing. In a crowded urban city the IDF can find and kill one Iranian commander in Lebanon; and anyone with a smart phone can watch it happen:
And yet, does it matter? Iran will just send a new commander to assist Hezbollah. Casualties are irrelevant if you think your dead soldiers go to paradise and get to have sex with 72 virgins.
This is the ultimate forever war. Maybe western civilization and western values will prevail in the long run, but given world demographic trends, this is not at all certain.
One thing less often mentioned is that oil production will not come back after the war like a baseball game after a rain delay. A strait closed for even two more months could cause the loss of a few million barrels of oil a day, at least for many months and perhaps permanently.
This link is pretty amazing. In a crowded urban city the IDF can find and kill one Iranian commander in Lebanon; and anyone with a smart phone can watch it happen:
https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/irgc-officer-who-commanded-hezbollah-missile-unit-killed-in-israeli-airstrike-in-lebanon-idf-says/
And yet, does it matter? Iran will just send a new commander to assist Hezbollah. Casualties are irrelevant if you think your dead soldiers go to paradise and get to have sex with 72 virgins.
This is the ultimate forever war. Maybe western civilization and western values will prevail in the long run, but given world demographic trends, this is not at all certain.
One thing less often mentioned is that oil production will not come back after the war like a baseball game after a rain delay. A strait closed for even two more months could cause the loss of a few million barrels of oil a day, at least for many months and perhaps permanently.