2 Comments
⭠ Return to thread

Loved it all.

But Brad, we may have an imminent problem at hand. I've been looking at a lot of the price categories (consumer, producer and wages, annual % changes or year-on-year % change). The best of consumer price are advancing at a sub-1%-2% rate, more of them at sub-1% than sub-2% (exception: tourism and traditional Chinese medicine (go figure!)). The headline consumer price index is deflating. Most producer prices, by industry category, are deflating too (exception: non-ferrous metals i.e., mainly precious metals and rare earth elements, liquor, refined tea and tobacco). Urban employment has stalled or is falling. Wage growth has slowed markedly, though still positive. The dreadful sense I'm getting is that of a burgeoning downdraft in most all prices.

Question: Do policymakers in China know the meaning of a General Glut?

They're tinkering around with interest rates, mortgage rates and with little-bitty changes to this that or the other.

Expand full comment

There is a lot of room between bail out everyone and allow deflation. Maybe they should aim for FAIT of 2% p.a. :)

Expand full comment