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Þe Real Job Growth Number for August Is: 77,000
A 187,000 estimated seasonally adjusted change in employment from mid-July to mid-August, on top of a -110,000 revision to þe estimate of July's level. Exactly what a soft landing would look like...
Exactly what a soft landing would look like, were we to be having one.
A 187,000 estimated seasonally adjusted change in employment from mid-July to mid-August, on top of a -110,000 revision to the estimate of July's level. Thus the real job-growth number you should be looking at is: 77,000. We think employment in mid-August was, seasonally adjusted, 77,000 more than it was in mid-July.
That is definitely a cooling labor market.
And wage growth from July to August in fact undershoots what is in line with a 1%/year productivity growth trend, a 2.5%/year CPI inflation-rate target, and a constant labor share:
And the unemployment rate jumped from 3.5% to 3.8%, as many more people told survey workers that they are now looking for jobs but have not found them yet.