I Do Not See "Overheating" This Year...

Yes, there will be some inflation—base effects and sectoral shifts and simply the speed of reopening will create bottlenecks in the system, and those with pricing power will take advantage. But—unless the coronavirus plague has done a lot more damage to the economic division of labor than I believe—it will not be because production and employment are in any manner above stable-inflation “potential”. Think of whatever inflation might happen as skidmarks and burning rubber, rather than any form of boilover...

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