In Spite of All the "Don't Worry" Whispers from Scott Bessent's Affinity, the Rest of Us Are Not Outside But Inside the Chaos-Monkey Cage with Trump
Our chances for anything that could be properly labelled anything as positive as “controlled disorder” over the next four years are slim; yes, Scott Bessent & others will try to keep Trump inside...
Our chances for anything that could be properly labelled anything as positive as “controlled disorder” over the next four years are very slim; yes, James Bessent & others will try to keep Trump inside his chaos-monkey cage—but the rest of us will not be outside, but rather locked inside with him…
A leader who lives in a world of disinformation & misinformation & operates on the principle of “kayfabe”—that is “professional”-wrestling slang for “be fake”, with the consonants reversed, you see. More: his words empower others to act on delusions. What more could amplify the risk of policy disaster? The uncertainty surrounding Trumponomics is its defining feature. Markets hope for restraint, and for “stock market number go up!” to rule all decisions. History & the experience of Trump I tells us, instead: expect chaos, which is not likely to be good…
Will Trumponomics Bring Boom or Bust in 2025? Some argue that Donald Trump’s election heralds robust US economic growth, fueled by tax cuts and deregulation, while others insist that his economic plans, if implemented, will blow up the federal budget, revive inflation, and erode the foundations of long-term US prosperity. In this Big Question, we ask J. Bradford DeLong, Maurice Obstfeld, Tara Pincock, and Michael R. Strain what they will be watching for in the coming year to decide which side is right.. <https://www.project-syndicate.org/onpoint/will-trumponomics-bring-boom-or-bust-in-2025
Michael Strain hopes that Trump’s focus on the stock market may restrain his worst impulses as Trump’s Treasury Secretary pick, Scott Bessent, uses his fear of stock-market declines to deflate chaotic policy balloons. Larry Summers sees that is delusional and expects some unholy genetic-engineering chimera of Richard Milhouse Nixon and Juan Domingo Peron. Maury Obstfeld sees disastrous trade policies producing substantive economic decline likely accompanied by inflation to. Tara Pincock sees another upward leap in income and wealth inequality unaccompanied by any significant overall economic growth. And I think the only honest answer is William Goldman’s: nobody knows anything. In Goldman’s application, nobody knew anything about what would happen after a movie project got the green light. In our case, nobody knows anything about what the policies of the Trump II administration will turn out to be. But to the extent that past performance is a guide to future results—which it often is—the results of chaos are likely to be bad.
