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Martin Wolf's avatar

These are not mutually exclusive hypotheses. Maybe you needed most of these things because the leap into modernity was in fact highly unlikely. It needed a great deal of luck.

John Quiggin's avatar

Alternative: A long Bradbury moment. Allusion is to an Australian skater who unexpectedly won Olympic gold when all of his more favored rivals crashed. In this view, escape from the Malthusian trap was the par outcome. But the depredations of Timur the Lame and Genghis Khan knocked most of Eurasia out of the race, leaving only the long-standing puzzle of China's failure to maintain its lead.

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