Omicron
(As of 2021-12-03)
What we know now: (1) Substantial evasion of immunity from prior infection, which should carry with it at least some evasion of immunity from vaccination:
Juliet R.C. Pulliam & al.: Increased Risk of SARS-CoV–2 Reinfection Associated with Emergence of the Omicron Variant in South Africa: ‘Analysis of routine surveillance data from South Africa suggests that, in contrast to the Beta and Delta, the Omicron variant of SARS-CoV–2 demonstrates substantial population-level evidence for evasion of immunity from prior infection… <https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.11.11.21266068v2.full.pdf>
(2) Omicron appears to be more infectious than early variants, even aside from its evasion of immunity;
Eric Topol: ’Omicron’s doubling time in Gauteng exceeds the prior variants of concern, but the question as to whether in can displace Delta as the dominant variant there and globally looms <https://t.co/cMPX6RvuRR>
(3) We can hope that it is less deadly, but hope is not a plan:
Clive Cookson, Oliver Barnes, & John Burn-Murdoch: The Race to Decipher Omicron: Will It Take Days, Weeks or Months?: ‘Labs around the world are scrambling to answer three fundamental questions: Is Omicron more transmissible than previous variants? Can it evade the immunity conferred by previous Sars-Cov–2 infection or vaccination? And does it cause more severe disease? Peter Openshaw, a professor of medicine at Imperial College London, says preliminary evidence suggests the answers to the first two questions are, “Yes, but no one knows to what extent”. Though Omicron seems to transmit faster than previous variants in South Africa, it is less clear that it can outcompete Delta across the world. Soumya Swaminathan, the WHO’s chief scientist, says it is ‘premature to draw any conclusions about the efficacy of vaccines against Omicron’ As for symptoms, “there’s just not enough information about how severe Omicron is”, he adds. “My assumption is that for now we treat it as if it is about as severe as Delta”…
LINK: <https://www.ft.com/content/e742a4bf-3e72-4551-bf72-df73cb35436f>
Andrew Meldrum: The AP Interview: Scientist Says Omicron Was a Group Find: ‘JOHANNESBURG (AP) — The Botswana scientist who may well have discovered the omicron variant of the coronavirus says he has been on a “rollercoaster of emotions,” with the pride of accomplishment followed by dismay over the travel bans immediately slapped on southern African countries. “Is that how you reward science? By blacklisting countries?” Dr. Sikhulile Moyo, a virologist at the Botswana Harvard AIDS Institute Partnership, said in an interview Thursday night with The Associated Press. “The virus does not know passports, it does not know borders,” he added. “We should not do geopolitics about the virus…. We should be collaborating and understanding”…
Spreading fatser than Delta did, and maybe won't outcompete Delta seem to me to be nearly incompatible things. Although the distribution of pre-existing immunity is likely different in say the USA than is South Africa. Unfortuately we won't be able to know until substantially more data comes in. Similarly for its severity. And severity is likely also dependent upon the patient's prior exposure (which variant and/or which vaccine). Thats too many variables to pin down until a large volume of data is collected.
"Wait and see" does not sound like a plan, but unfortunately right now that's what public health officials are having to do in response to omicron.