PROJECT SYNDICATE: The U.S. Economy Defyïng Eeyore Expectations: Enjoy the Soft Landing
My October column: In a world where economic pessimism often dominates, the U.S. economy’s recent resilience stands out. Even after aggressive monetary tightening, the American economy has...
My October column: In a world where economic pessimism often dominates, the U.S. economy’s recent resilience stands out. Even after aggressive monetary tightening, the American economy has navigated a remarkable soft landing. What's behind this unexpected success? What storm clouds still on the horizon?
The U.S. added 254,000 jobs in September plus positive previous two-month revisions. Real income & productivity growth have also been revised upward. The economy is stronger than I had expected by a substantial margin. Despite my concerns that the Fed might overcorrect and push the economy into recession, the post-pandemic recovery has been very robust indeed. For now, let’s appreciate the luck and skill of the Federal Reserve, the extraordinary resilience of the U.S. economy and the soft landing it has achieved against all odds.
Enjoy the Soft Landing
October 9, 2024
Macroeconomic forecasting often rewards pessimists, because, even absent a disaster, new challenges almost always emerge where we least expect them. For now, though, the US economy appears to be firing on all cylinders, even after a historically rapid cycle of monetary-policy tightening.
BERKELEY—The COVID-19 pandemic created both a short- and a medium-term challenge for American economic policy. The immediate challenge was to maintain consumers’ incomes in the face of sweeping lockdowns, supply-chain disruptions, and shifts in aggregate supply. This meant striking a balance between avoiding a depression and not goosing the economy with so much liquidity as to turbocharge inflation….
READ MOAR at Project Syndicate: <https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/us-economy-soft-landing-proving-robust-september-job-numbers-by-j-bradford-delong-2024-10>
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