ScratchPad: 2024-05-21 Tu: Not "Bipartisanship", but Rather a Collapse of Republican Obstructionist Discipline; OpenAI's Girlfriend in Canada; & MOAR...
A scratchpad…
A scratchpad…
Journamalism: It is not a new bipartisan majority, but rather a collapse of Republican obstructionist Senate party discipline.
Dan Drezner is unhappy, somewhat, with David Leonhardt <https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/19/briefing/centrism-washington-neopopulism.html>. I endorse what Drezner says—the argument is wrong in its claims about increasing social conservatism, obtusely inattentive in its neglect of the Republican rejection of democracy, and fails to note that on balance economic growth is best served by effective “centrist” industrial policies plus expansive neoliberal immigration policies. But there is more that is wrong. And more serious that is wrong. The vote counts I see are, with yeas and nays for Democrats and Republicans:
2021 Covid Relief: 50-0, 0-49
2021 Infrastructure & Jobs: 50-0, 19-30
2022 CHIPS & Science: 49-0, 17-33
2022 Veterans’ Health: 47-0, 41-11
2022 Gun Violence: 49-0, 18-33
2022 Postal Service: 48-0, 31-19
2022 Same-Sex Marriage: 49-0, 12-36
2022 Electoral Count Reform: 49-0, 19-29
2023 Debt Limit: 46-4, 17-32
2023 Marijuana: 48-0, 6-44
2023 Russian Uranium Imports: 47-0, 20-29
2024 Aid to Ukraine: 48-0, 22-29
2024 TikTok Divestiture: 48-0, 32-19
Notice anything interesting about these “bipartisan” majorities? They are made up of 15 less-crazy Republicans and all of the Democrats. What this reflects is two things. First, on a partisan level, it reflects the collapse as counterproductive and self-destructive of the High Mitch McConnell legislative strategy of blocking everything to make the Democratic president appear a big failure—the fact that fifteen plus Republican senators are no longer willing to hold the High Mitch line they were willing and eager to hold when a Black man was president. Second, on a policy level, there has been a substantial shift away from High Neoliberalism as well—a shift that I think is more pronounced among Democrats than Republicans:
Dan Drezner: ‘I have serious doubts… about two… elements…. The first is his claim that the median voter has become more socially conservative over time. That is, how to put this, crazy talk…. The two concrete examples of bipartisan social legislation that Leonhardt cites in his story are gun safety and same-sex marriage — and both of those bills moved policy in a liberal direction. The only area where voters shifted in a more conservative direction is on immigration…. Focus on the past few years for now. The U.S. economy has easily outperformed…. The key reason? All that darn immigration! Leonhardt has captured a decided shift in American politics… towards something resembling economic populism. But I do not see… more socially conservative views…. [And] the economic growth folks want to ascribe to neopopulist policies is emanating from the vestiges of neoliberalism…. And to repeat… the GOP slide towards not caring about actual votes is more important than anything anyone writes about neopopulism… <https://danieldrezner.substack.com/p/a-very-partial-centrism>
Crypto & Other Grifts: Certainly the “pausing” of the Sky voice smells 100% like guilt—like we need to minimize damages because we have no defense against a name-and-likeness suit given the precedent of Vanna White v. Samsung Electronics. Yet another point for the Board that tried to fire Sam Altman. Yet another reason for Microsoft to quickly figure out how not to find itself held hostage by chaos monkeys:
John Gruber: OpenAI & Sam Altman Ripped Off Scarlett Johansson’s Voice, Supposedly Using an Unnamed Soundalike Voice Actress: ‘If they had never contacted Johansson… that’d be one thing. But to negotiate with her to provide her voice officially, and go ahead with a soundalike after she turned down the offer? Some choice: work with them or get ripped off. How in the world did Sam Altman expect to get away with this?… Given the mix of arrogance and the tidbit in Johansson’s statement about Altman reaching out again just two days before OpenAI’s demo, does anyone actually believe this “Sky” voice was not trained on recordings of Johansson herself?… Strong… “girlfriend… in Canada” vibes… <https://daringfireball.net/linked/2024/05/20/openai-johansson-voice-ripoff>
Journamalism: Nicely encapsulated:
Scary Lawyerguy: ‘Of the many double standards employed by the media, Biden needing every speech to be some combination of Lincoln and Cicero while Trump's public appearances are 90 minutes of word salad, non sequiturs, and dictatorial musings that get no push back, is among the worst… <https://x.com/scarylawyerguy/status/1792301844741427239?s=51&t=fzvtammep23oCxG1ongLxA>
Agreed. If Biden were ever to give one single speech as incoherent and lie-filled as Trumps’s standard speeches are as a matter of course, I think there would be a banner headline atop the New York Times.
Ens***ification: Google searches with and without the “&udm=14” switch:
What I get from this: the advertising-supported web that led to the truly evil panel on the right—even though it is not trying to sell me ads on this particular page!—needs to join the Choir Invisible as soon as humanly possible…
Re: "It is not a new bipartisan majority, but rather a collapse of Republican obstructionist Senate party discipline."
Back in the Clinton/Shrub era , I coined what I called the Lieberman Law: With a few Republicans and all but a few Democrats, you can do a lot of good. With a few Democrats and all but a few Republicans, you can do a lot of evil.
OpenAI really have acted like entitled brats. And also in other actions. Altman seems to be running with other egomaniac tech titans of the Thiel persuasion. Didn't he recently want to raise $$$$$$$tn to build a vastly bigger version of GPT? Does he need computronium? Does he need to capture all speech via surrepticious surveillance devices (like keeping your phone recording your speech all the time)? The Saudis, amongst many, would love an AI driven panopticon. Big Brother is definitely watching you in this scenario.