SCRATCHPAD: 2024-07-25 Th: Horowitz and Andreesen Think Trump Views Them as Friends Rather than Prey...
A scratchpad…
A scratchpad…
Crytogrifts: Elon Musk appears to believe that if he gives Trump money for his campaign now, Trump will not impound and sequester Teslas green Pigouvian–subsidy money next year if he wins the presidency. Marc Andreesen and Ben Horowitz believe that if they give money and fundraise for Trump now, Trump will do favors for the cryptogrifter industry next year. They seem to think that Trump is relational—establish a relationship with him, and you will then do each other favors. But that is not how Trump works. Trump is transactional, not relational. Give Trump money now, and he will take it and say thank you. Ask for a favor in return at some time in the future, and he will ask you: “what’s in this for me?” If you have a reputation as someone who keeps their promises, you might induce him to do you a favor in return for your making him a promise he believes. But the reverse does not work because Trump's word simply is not good. This is an example of a broader principle: For some reason, plutocrats often think kleptocrats are their friends and allies. But that is not the case. Kleptocrats regard plutocrats as their prey:
Elizabeth Lopatto: The moral bankruptcy of Marc Andreessen & Ben Horowitz: ‘Marc Andreesen and [Ben] Horowitz[‘s]… podcast… is an extraordinary performance…. Andreessen concedes that their major problems with President Joe Biden—the ones that led them to support Trump—are what most voters would consider “subsidiary” issues. “It doesn’t have anything to do with the big issues that people care about”…. These subsidiary issues take precedence for Andreessen and Horowitz over, say, mass deportations and Project 2025’s attempt to end no-fault divorce… personal liberty—abortion, the rights of gay and trans people, and possibly democracy itself—in favor of crypto, AI, and a tax policy they like better. For Horowitz, “probably the most emotional topic” is crypto—a16z started a $4.5 billion crypto fund in 2022, and the pair believe that the Biden administration has been deeply unfair to crypto. In Horowitz’s view, the Biden administration “basically subverted the rule of law to attack the crypto industry”… <https://www.theverge.com/2024/7/24/24204706/marc-andreessen-ben-horowitz-a16z-trump-donations>
The thing about oligarchs is that all of them have been spectacularly lucky; there is no other way of becoming an oligarch. And the thing about being extraordinarily lucky is that change is inherently bad for you, because there are vastly more changes that make you worse off than make you better off. Thus every oligarch has a vested interest in maintaining the status quo - being "conservative" in the natural language sense.
Conservatives tend to prefer allying with reactionaries rather than democrats because the former want to preserve social hierarchies whereas the latter want to flatten them. The fallacy in this thinking is that reactionaries want to replace the people at the top of the hierarchy, and they usually succeed. But conservatives never learn.
Silicon Valley techbros do add a special ingredient to this fallacy: they are all persuaded that they have reached their present position by creating the future. They think that they will be able to direct change, to bend it to their advantage. They will not, because their agents the reactionaries will choose the changes that benefit themselves, not their erstwhile allies. And even if the techbros could control change, there would still be unforeseen consequences; "even the very wise cannot see all ends", and these people are very far from being very wise.
Horowitz has long held sociopathic tendencies, exacerbated by the simplistic libertarian tendencies in parts of Silicon Valley. This is, sadly, a natural progression.