Discussion about this post

User's avatar
JH's avatar
Jun 28Edited

Well yeah, you can criticize the Great Man theory of history. Class struggles, social trends, and predictable technological advances have a lot of influence on history.

As a teenager I loved Isaac Asimov's Foundation series. Psychohistory seemed quite plausible. With a large enough sample size, statistical formulas, and a thorough knowledge of human history and psychology, the future should be predictable. Professor Peter Turchin is still trying to make this work. I wish him luck. But random events tend to happen, and they make a very big difference.

George Washington's coat was pieced by musket balls in the French and Indian War. Hitler survived three well planned assassination attempts between 1939 an 1944. Czar Nicholas could have easily sent someone to kill Lenin when he was living in Zurich. The Shah of Iran could have easily had the Ayatollah Khomeini killed when he was living outside Paris. And if Trump's would be assassin had aimed an inch to the right in the summer of 2024...

So the great man theory is valid. You can't discount it just because you don't like it. Social movements tend to be shaped by great men (or women.) Occupy Wall Street, Black Lives Matter, the protests in Hong Kong against Communist China's accelerated takeover; all these movements largely dissipated because of lack of competent and charismatic leaders. So the Great Man theory of history cannot be ignored.

Michael Dawson's avatar

Brad, do you see Age or Rev and Age of Cap as advancing a distinctive hypothesis, or are they just great because they are proofs of the power of the not-Great Man method? I can't seem to summon Hobsbawm's main thesis there, but maybe that's just a sign I need to look again?

2 more comments...

No posts

Ready for more?