The Current State of U.S. Trade "Negotiations": Opinions of Shape of Earth Differ

“Trade talks” where the U.S. cannot even start to talk about trade because their are no goals, no trusted staff, and no internal administration plan. It’s chaos-monkey non-“policy” in action: Scott...

“Trade talks” where the U.S. cannot even start to talk about trade because their are no goals, no trusted staff, and no internal administration plan. It’s chaos-monkey non-“policy” in action: Scott Bessent is saying talks between the U.S. and some forty Asian countries are going “very well”. They are—very well for China. Not for the U.S. Scott Bessent tells lies. Chaos without a plan means that U.S. non-policy is sabotaging itself, as the farce sets U.S. credibility on fire…

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Scott Bessent tells lies. The lies are in the service of an attempt to cover up what everyone knows is the truth: The Trump administration is structurally incapable of negotiating anything.

Nobody has the baton.

Trump has no ability to focus or evaluate.

Congress has not and will not give Trump trade promotion authority—the power to tie an entire deal up into a single package and submit it to congress for an up-or-down vote.

Trump claims to have already negotiated “200 deals”. Bessent says he is talking about sub-components of ongoing negotiations. But nothing is agreed to, ever, until everything is agreed to: whatever these are, these are at best proposals, not “deals”. And they are almost surely not even that—there is no staff to write them down, and nobody has been told what the Trump administration wants, other than “something big”. Why not? Because the Trump administration has no desires or plans—just grievances and irritations:

Jaron Schneider: Japan Can’t Get an Answer on What the US Wants From a Trade Deal: Report <https://petapixel.com/2025/04/21/japan-cant-get-an-answer-on-what-the-us-wants-from-a-trade-deal-report/>: ‘Economic Revitalization Minister Ryosei Akazawa was in Washington DC until Friday last week but left without finalizing a deal with Trump’s trade teams…. “Japanese negotiators are complaining that the problem with the trade negotiations with the White House, what’s delaying concrete progress and a real deal, is the US keeps changing its ask in terms of exactly what it wants, said one financial CEO who speaks regularly to country officials…”. “The Japanese have just been in Washington. Their experience apparently was they went to talk to the American leadership on this matter, and the American leadership said, ‘What are you offering?’ And the Japanese said, ‘Well, what is it that you want?’ And the Americans could not explain what they wanted,'” [Ch] Freeman says. “This is a cockamami approach to negotiation…”

Without clear negotiating mandates, and without a functioning interagency process, America brings nothing to the table but threats—and empty ones at that. Foreign leaders see that the administration can neither commit to nor deliver on its promises. Even traditionally pro-American partners like Japan are wary of engaging, sensing that any agreement would only set them up for future bullying. For it is now clear that agreeing to do what Trump wants gets you nothing, for he will have forgotten that he owes you a favor within thirty minutes.

The supposed "negotiations" are thus hollow. The White House's chaos-monkey approach has destroyed trust, eroded leverage, and left the U.S. appearing unmoored on the world stage.

Meanwhile, China, looking very good, fills the vacuum America leaves behind.

Bessent:

Richard Macaulay: Bessent Says US Trade Talks With Asia Going 'Very Well' <https://www.bloomberg.com/authors/ASyEaflTb74/richard-macauley>: ‘US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told ABC News that trade discussions with Asian countries are “moving along very well”…

Donald Trump does not have trade promotion authority. He cannot cut tariffs or make other concessions. He cannot even say he will bundle up everything and submit it to an up-or-down vote to the congress. Every concession he makes to another country will have to be relitigated, item by item, in the congress. All Trump can do is say that he will abandon his chaos-monkey antics—and even that is not credible.

So what is there to negotiate?

And Bloomberg is enabling Bessent’s lies by mammoth sanewashing:

Alastair Gale, Soo-Hyang Choi, & Shruti Srivastava: Asia Takes Lead in Race for Interim Deals to Avoid Trump Tariffs <https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-27/asia-gains-lead-in-race-for-interim-deals-to-avoid-trump-tariffs>: ‘Speaking Sunday on ABC News’ This Week with George Stephanopoulos, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said there are 18 important US trading partners, including China which is undergoing a “special negotiation.” With the other 17, “We have a process in place, over the next 90 days, to negotiate with them,” Bessent said. “Some of those are moving along very well, especially with the Asian countries.” Last week Bessent said the US and South Korea could reach an “agreement of understanding” on trade as soon as this week…. The US and South Korea signed a free-trade agreement in 2007 that required more than a year to hammer out and took until 2011 for Congress to ratify. It then was re-negotiated under the first Trump administration for several more months in 2018…. With the US and China still at an impasse and other major Asian economies charting a faster track, US trading partners in North America and Europe are still trying to understand the basic parameters. Those include the scope of talks and who’s running trade policy in Washington, while sounding less worried about speed…

Remember: South Korea played ball with Trump in 2018. And did that get it into the “green box”? No.

A more realistic picture, which accords with what I am hearing:

Abe Newman: <https://bsky.app/profile/abenewman.bsky.social/post/3lnkqm7x2l22c>: ‘Just back from 2 weeks in Asia…. Key takeaway…. The Administration is not ready for the negotiations. Japanese colleagues (who are likely the most willing to try and strike a deal) keep asking what the US wants. The response... 'something big". Without a clear ask, there can be no deals. Its not just lack of information. US bullying wears down willingness to negotiate. Partners increasingly see the US as not asking for loyalty but dominance. Even Japan, then, sees concessions as a road to more demands and not a new equillibrium. And other countries are watching. As Japan talks drag on/lead to fake concessions, others are wondering why they should engage. Ultimately, the administration has undermined its own position. US has threatened to snap back full tariffs in 90 days but the US could not withstand the market pressure of those sanctions i.e. the snap back is not credible. And our partners know that.

Moreover, partners starting to realize that there is no credible decision-making process in the US. This is not an expert-led, interagency negotiation. Decisions made in hallways and flip flop based on moods. Why agree to restructure your economy on a whim. And negotiations with China only reinforce US weakness: “This game of chicken has done nothing but enable Xi Jinping to boost his standing in and outside China, while the United States appears uninformed and unmoored.” And US strategy is further hit by gutting of US expertise. How do you simultaneously start 190 negotiations in 90 days, while undermining the staff necessary to conduct those negotiaions? If negotiations are the goal of tariffs, it looks like Administration has tanked its strategy from the outset -- no plans, no staff, wrong escalation ladder, no commitment mechanism. The outcome will produce stagflation at home and undermine US credibility abroad…

Any questions? Anyone? Anyone? Bueller?