Trumpist Chaos-Monkey Feces-Flinging in Trade Policy Continues. & It Is Turning into a Foreign-Policy Dumpster Fire...

Trump desperately wants to be on the phone with Xi Jinping, the dog has poked its nose into the steel trap, and corrupt media pretending to sanewash everything they can by pretending it is all 11...

Trump desperately wants to be on the phone with Xi Jinping, the dog has poked its nose into the steel trap, and corrupt media pretending to sanewash everything they can by pretending it is all 11-dimensional chess from people who think AI is a steak sauce…

In the left-hand ring of the chaos-monkey three ring circus that is the Trump administration, I see this AM that the Bessent Affinity within the Trump administration is trying to make something that might resemble a move of sorts.

The Bessent Affinity is now retconning all the Trumpist chaos-monkey feces-flinging in trade policy. They are going all-in. It all always was, they say, an 11-dimensional chess strategy to resurrect the Obama Trans-Pacific Partnership that Trump blew up on Day 1 of his first presidential term.

And I see four Politico reporters—Megan Messerly, Ari Hawkins, Phelim Kine, and Felicia Schwartz—pretending, unprofessionally, to take it seriously.

They ask no hard questions, but imitate lapdogs begging for treats:

Megan Messerly, Ari Hawkins, Phelim Kine, & Felicia Schwartz: Trump wants to make a deal with China. Here’s how he’s trying to make that happen <https://www.politico.com/news/2025/04/16/trump-china-trade-strategy-00291979>: ‘The administration’s theory of the case is that tariff deals with other countries will isolate China — and urge them to come to the table…. [as] the U.S., will isolate China, disrupt the Chinese supply chain and threaten to cut the country off from the rest of the world…. Announcements from companies moving manufacturing operations to the U.S. and its broader sectoral-based tariff strategy… [are] key components in getting Xi to cooperate…. “Once you see a lot of countries — not just in southeast Asia or Asia, but all over — you’ll see that they’re willing to make deals with America, and that exerts pressure on China to hopefully come to the table,” the official said…. “Get all of Asia but China to the table, incentivize them with lower tariffs and U.S. companies will leave China,” said one person close to the White House. “And yes it makes sense. It’s happening already…”

And this naturally drives Dan Drezner—recently having moved from his job at Tufts in Medford to become Whateley Chair in Thaumatropic Energies and Dimensional Rift Studies at Miskatonic in Arkham—into Shrill Unholy Madness:

Dan Drezner: The Trump Administration Is Just Grasping at Trade Policy Straws Now <https://danieldrezner.substack.com/p/the-trump-administration-is-just>: ‘Look who discovered a decade-old trade gambit!… Why… is this such an exasperating read?

Because the context is damning…. This is exactly what the Obama administration was attempting…precisely the argument President Obama made in a Washington Post op-ed that advocated for congressional approval of the TPP…. [And] prior to articulating it, the second Trump administration took about every conceivable action to sabotage this strategy…. As hard as this task would have been under normal circumstances, Trump has made it that much harder for the U.S. to corral any allies…. Trump officials [are] attempt[ing] to sanewash the epic clusterfuck of last week, but I ain’t buying…. China is better prepared to prosecute this trade war…. Trump’s madman gambits have, predictably, fallen flat. Other than that, everything is fine…

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Plus, over in the right-hand ring, Duncan Black watches Bloomberg join in. Bloomberg, too, pretends that chaos-monkey trade policy really was actually always 11-dimensional chess to resurrect Obama’s Trans-Pacific Partnership strategy:

Duncan Black: Have They Seen a Map? <https://www.eschatonblog.com/2025/04/have-they-seen-map.html>: ‘Just completely dumbasses: “[Gavin Bade & Brian Schwartz:] The Trump administration plans to use ongoing tariff negotiations to pressure U.S. trading partners to limit their dealings with China, according to people with knowledge of the conversations. The idea is to extract commitments from U.S. trading partners to isolate China’s economy in exchange for reductions in trade and tariff barriers imposed by the White House. U.S. officials plan to use negotiations with more than 70 nations to ask them to disallow China to ship goods through their countries, prevent Chinese firms from locating in their territories to avoid U.S. tariffs, and not absorb China’s cheap industrial goods into their economies…”

While Xi Jinping and company say that that dog won’t hunt.

Or, rather, that if the dog wants to get its nose out of its self-inflicted trap—to not blow up U.S. inflation from trade supply-chain breakdown inside the United States—then what the dog needs to do is to come to heel, lie down, and be quiet:

Duncan Black: Has China Seen Donald Trump? <https://www.eschatonblog.com/2025/04/has-china-seen-donald-trump.html>: ‘[Bloomberg News:] I imagine China gets why this is hilarious, even if the people writing it up don't: “China wants to see a number of steps from President Donald Trump’s administration before it will agree to trade talks, including showing more respect by reining in disparaging remarks by members of his cabinet, according to a person familiar with the Chinese government’s thinking. Other conditions include a more consistent US position and a willingness to address China’s concerns around American sanctions and Taiwan, said the person, who asked not to be identified to discuss internal thinking…”

And Trump begs Xi Jinping to rescue him from his predicament. If you really think they have to make a deal with you, you don’t say “the ball is in their court” and beg them to reach out:

Duncan Black: CALL ME PLEASE <https://www.eschatonblog.com/2025/04/call-me-please.html>: ‘Humiliating stuff: “President Donald Trump called on China to reach out to him in order to kick off negotiations aimed at resolving the escalating trade fight between the world’s two largest economies. ‘The ball is in China’s court. China needs to make a deal with us. We don’t have to make a deal with them’, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said Tuesday, reading what she said was a statement Trump dictated…”

And let me quote MOAR from the “China Open to Talks If Trump Shows Respect” piece. China wants not just Trump to say “never mind” about trade war and come to heel with respect to rhetorical China-bashing, but also to accept China’s position on the (hopefully long-run) ultimate status of Taiwan:

Bloomberg News: China Open to Talks If US Shows Respect, Names Point Person <https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-16/china-open-to-talks-if-trump-shows-respect-names-point-person>: ‘Beijing also wants the US to appoint a point person… [to] help prepare a deal that Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping can sign when they meet…. Trump has hit China with tariffs of 145% on most goods since taking office, prompting Beijing to retaliate and threatening to wipe out most trade between the world’s biggest economies….

The rapid onslaught of US tariffs has engendered broad public support in China for retaliation, giving Xi a political incentive to rebuff Trump’s repeated demands for a phone call. The US leader on Tuesday again called on China to reach out to him in order to kick off negotiations to resolve the trade fight…. Trump’s demands remain unclear, and tariff levels on China would need to remain high to achieve his goal of balancing trade and attracting manufacturers to the US….

Michelle Lam… “There is a bit more clarity on what China is looking from: respect, consistency and a point person…. So now the ball is in US court on whether they can meet these demands. But that is still difficult — especially if the aim is to contain China’s rise.”… The most important precondition for any talks is that Chinese officials need to know such engagement will be conducted with respect…. Beijing has recently expressed notable displeasure with comments Vice President JD Vance made about “Chinese peasants”…. Lin Jian… called the remarks “ignorant and disrespectful,” in what was a rare direct rebuke of a senior US leader…. Officials in Beijing also want to know that Washington is ready to address… the prevailing perception… that the US has enacted policies designed to contain and suppress China’s modernization…. China also wants the US to address its national security concerns, particularly over Taiwan…

This may well turn into the greatest foreign-policy defeat for the United States since the end of the Vietnam War, at least.

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But those are just the side rings.

It is very important to recognize how broad the stupidity, the cruelty, and the destructiveness is.

It is not just trade: it is everywhere:

Matt Yglesias: It’s not just trade <https://www.slowboring.com/p/its-not-just-trade>: ‘Trump is addressing scientific research, public health, and other crucial issues with the same lack of care…. Trump’s extremely dubious ideas about trade policy…. But… Trump is a huge liar…. His business community allies [promised] that this was just populist chum…. Then came Liberation Day, on which his business allies learned that he is crazier than they thought. After several days of begging and pleading and stock market losses, he was persuaded to partially reverse course. But what will happen next with Trump and trade? I have no idea….

But I also know something… I wish his business allies would more seriously consider, which is that the slipshod manner in which he makes trade policy is not unique to trade policy….

Laura Loomer…is a nut job every bit as much as Peter Navarro…. During all the tariff drama, she scored an Oval Office meeting with Trump and purged six officials from the National Security Council, as well as the head of the National Security Agency…. There was no official explanation given by the White House for any of it, a true banana republic vibe…. Bill Ackman or the right-of-center members of venture capital Twitter view Trump… [as] doing lots of great stuff but just got it wrong on the reciprocal tariffs…. [But] we looking at Navarro-level personnel and Liberation Day-quality decision-making across a broad swathe of issues, except without… direct financial market feedback….

Killing poor kids in Africa: A recent analysis in The Lancet says that without stable PEPFAR programs, nearly 500,000 children in Africa are likely to die of causes related to HIV/AIDS over the next five years. That’s pretty bad…. I don’t really know why. Maybe they’re assholes. Maybe it got mixed up with abortion. Maybe they’re careless people who break things…. [But] the stock market doesn’t really care if poor kids in Africa die….

Kneecapping education research: Wrecking global trade is the craziest thing Trump has done in terms of touching a hot stove. Wrecking foreign aid is the most morally hideous thing he’s done. Somewhere in between is his administration’s frankly bizarre attack on program evaluation for American education… so crazy that Stuart Buck’s first reaction was that it must be some kind of mistake. But it’s not…. And the same is true for the administration’s broader attack on scientific research.

A parade of problems: Late last Wednesday, the Trump administration unexpectedly retreated from DOGE’s cutbacks to the Social Security Administration that had undermined basic customer service functions…. The point is that I do not think anyone’s takeaway from this should be that Trump is a prudent guy who corrects his errors. The lesson is that Trump is a reckless person who has empowered sloppy people to make sloppy decisions. Sometimes those decisions backfire in a way that is high-profile and obvious, in which case he may back down after days of controversy. Equally sloppy, equally bad decisions… fly under the radar….

Harms accrue over the long term, like the harms of gutting education research or basic science. Who knows what Loomer is doing to the national security apparatus beyond the fact that she’s already gotten a bunch of people canned and is now gunning for the general counsel at the Pentagon…. These guys really will do things that are incredibly crazy and stupid. They are, in fact, doing many such things…. We could be blundering into a war or fatally compromising counterterrorism efforts with amateur hour antics. This feels like eleven controversies ago, but the National Security Advisor did accidentally add a prominent journalist to a private group chat on which he and other principals were discussing detailed military plans….

The anti-Houthi military campaign appears not to be working, which is the kind of thing that happens when sloppy people are making decisions…. Linda McMahon seems to be confusing AI (artificial intelligence) with A1 (steak sauce)…. Yet another indication that the people making decisions in the Trump cabinet are perhaps not very well-informed. And that’s a problem that has broader and deeper implications than Trump’s business allies seem willing to admit…

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