DeLong's Grasping Reality: Economy in the 2000s & Before

Earnings Sentiment; or, This Is Nuts!! When's the Crash?!: CHART OF THE DAY
Wall Street sell-side analysts are now unmoored from reality. Next four-year S&P500 nominal earnings growth totalling exp(0.23 x 4) - 1 = 150%? The…
 • Brad DeLong
CROSSPOST: ARINDRAJIT DUBE: A Minimum Wage Natural Experiment Has Been Running for Over a Decade
Arin's subhead: "When 30 States Raised Minimum Wages, What Happened to Pay and Jobs?" The minimum wage job-loss apocalypse that never arrived. At work…
 • Brad DeLong
The AI Jobs Apocalypse Is Not in the Data: CHART OF THE DAY
A labor market in rough balance is a strange place to look for an AI-driven jobs collapse. The full-time typist has disappeared, but very few jobs are…
Interesting from Tim Duy of SGH Macro: The Incredible Warsh Fed
Behind the superpaywall because I don’t have rights to quote this completely from what Tim Duy writes for SGH Macro. Tim says that with the accession to…
 • Brad DeLong
CROSSPOST: RENÉE DiRESTA: Red Mirage, Blue Shift, Online Cope
!Spencer Pratt and the 2026 Fraud Script: Majority illusion, mail ballots, and the coming election-night panic. How a viral mayoral longshot, a…
 • Brad DeLong
So Far Inflation's Return Limited to Energy. So Far: CHART OF THE DAY
Monetary policy risk returns as new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh begins cosplaying Arthur Burns in the 1970s. Inflation is back. The oil shocks are too. The…
 • Brad DeLong
My Notes on the Progression from Context to Prompt to Harness Engineering in making GPT LLMs Useful: (TUESDAY) MAMLMs
The Age of Harness Engineering: taming the stochastic parrots before they eat your seed-corn codebase. We’ve scaled the models and blown out the context…
 • Brad DeLong
The Public Sphere & "Civility": HOISTED FROM THE ARCHIVES
From 2018-05-29: When Andrew Sullivan’s definition of “civility” means “you know and stay in your place”, or good faith for me, bad faith for thee. A…
 • Brad DeLong
Thoughts Springing from Ronald Meek's Take on the Scottish & French Stage Theorists of the Enlightenment: HICKS LECTURE OUTTAKE
Stage Theories After Steampower: Meek, Marx, Hicks, the Info‑Bio Tech-Attention Economy, & much much MOAR…
 • Brad DeLong
"AI" Is Eating Platform Monopolist Free Cash Flow, Not the World: CHART OF THE DAY
New empirical evidence on AI‑boosted coding, the apparent absence of a matching surge in valuable products, and the persistent unreliability of large…
 • Brad DeLong
CROSSPOST: NOAH SMITH: Friends Don’t Let Friends Cite George Borjas
Noah’s subhead for this piece of his post: “Borjas again”. Failed replications are embarrassing, but they happen. However, they need to be not too…
 • Brad DeLong
Burning 2.1M Tokens Version of Misadventures in Vibe-Programming: LAUGH OF THE DAY
A 26 billion‑parameter mixture-of-experts LLM loses its mind, burning three War & Peace’s of tokens uselessly as it searches for memories it never…
 • Brad DeLong
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