First: Against Meritocracy:
If you have a test or another activity to select who is “the best”, you had better make damned sure that the test or activity accurately measures or reflects what you really want done. In the limit, you optimize for test-takers—and people who have devoted all of their time to become expert test-takers have spent none of their time learning to do anything else. They are thus likely to be far from “the best” at what will be their real job.
How can you tell if you are falling into this trap? Divide your population up into groups. See how well the best test-takers are spread out among those groups, If there is no reason to think that those who will actually be best at the real job are anything other than uniformly distributed among the groups you have chosen, and yet if it turns out that those who score highest on the test are strongly concentrated—then it is highly likely that you are missing huge numbers of potential candidates, and wasting a huge amount of talent.
Rajiv Sethi ran across a very interesting paper on Finland that is on point here:
Rajiv Sethi: Notes on a Remarkable Finding from Finland: ‘Ursina Schaede and Ville Mankki…. A change in the manner in which… teachers were selected…. A first stage based largely on scores on a high school matriculation exam, followed by a second stage…. For a number of years, acceptance into the second stage was based on a quota, ensuring that at least 40 percent… were male…. The first post-quota cohort… graduated in 1994…. Students differentially exposed to the quota-constrained cohorts of teachers ended up with better educational attainment and labor force participation…. “Male quota teachers contributing positive qualities to the school environment that are not sufficiently captured by the selection criterion in absence of the quota.”… Important characteristics (unmeasured by scores) were not identical across male and female applicant pools. The quota was picking up individuals with these characteristics by proxy…
LINK:
One Video:
Take Any Square Root by Hand <https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HBdVVFqTrUU>:
One Picture:
Adam Gurri: ’Like “norms,” which is very related, it’s used to mean a lot of different things…. Decid[e] which characteristics you care about and build… your taxonomy from there. This… was… best for norms:<https://t.co/myQw5T4xw> <https://t.co/G9ufEVRe00>
Suresh Naidu: ’This is actually a pretty good typology of “institutions”… norms (conventions vs customs vs mores) and laws and modes of enforcement… collective expectations… Nash equilibrium… collective evaluations… Pareto optimum)…
Adam Gurri @adamgurri
@Noahpinion Like "norms," which is very related, it's used to mean a lot of different things. So it's just about deciding which characteristics you care about and building your taxonomy from there. This (unironically, I know it's crazy big) was the best for norms https://t.co/myQw5T4xwd https://t.co/G9ufEVRe00Very Briefly Noted:
Donna Ferguson: Bambi: Cute, Lovable, Vulnerable… Or a Dark Parable of Antisemitic Terror?: ‘A new translation… reasserts its original message… <https://www.theguardian.com/news/2021/dec/25/bambi-cute-lovable-vulnerable-or-a-dark-parable-of-antisemitic-terror>Wikipedia: Kingdom of the Lombards <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kingdom_of_the_Lombards>
Ian Millhiser: The Supreme Court showdown over Biden’s Covid–19 vaccine policies is happening now: ’Biden’s vaccination policies could save thousands…. The Supreme Court could toss them… anyway… <https://www.vox.com/2021/12/22/22848155/supreme-court-vaccine-mandate-osha-cms-covid-joe-biden>
Dennis C. Rasmussen: Fears of a Setting Sun <https://press.princeton.edu/books/hardcover/9780691210230/fears-of-a-setting-sun>
Matt: ’The cons keep making the argument that California is on the brink of collapse when it’s actual problem is that the demand to live in California far outstrips the supply of homes in the state…
Caitlin Flanagan @CaitlinPacific
I’m not sure who benefits from the collapse of California. It has to be intentional because it’s so thoroughgoing and happening so quickly. But I can’t figure out the true engine and the reward.Scary Lawyerguy: ’If President Hillary Clinton was on tape asking the GA Secretary of State to “find” 12,000 votes so she could be declared the winner of his state, the DOJ would have already indicted her (and rightly so). Trump actually DID THIS and is under no threat…
John Robb: ’Doggerland was completely flooded by rising sea levels around 6500–6200 BCE <https://t.co/tNqcJbopGt>…
Nilay Patel: ’Every “interactive TV” experiment… fun filler content hidden away in dusty unused corners of apps <https://t.co/XQ7k6Z5f6s>…
Adam Tooze: Books We Read in International & Global History<
Paragraphs:
Martin Sandbu: The Case for the Affordability of Universal Basic Income: ‘I would implement basic income… as a negative income tax…. One-third… of the amount… households have to spend after taxes and transfers… £7,150 a year, or almost £600 a month… LINK: <https://www.ft.com/content/3788b99e-7b8c-4641-8250-6f6823f1a7f6>
Anne Laurie: ANTHRAX!!!1!!: ‘David Gilbert, at Vice: "People Got Sick at a Conspiracy Conference. They’re Sure It’s Anthrax…. Claim… first made by Joe Oltmann on his Conservative Daily podcast earlier this week… coughing and sneezing on camera…. The conference, run by Tulsa businessman Clay Clark, was headlined by figures like disgraced former national security adviser Michael Flynn, former Trump adviser Roger Stone, and MyPillow CEO Mike Lindell. Eric Trump, the son of former President Donald Trump, also spoke at the event. “There’s a 99.9% chance it’s anthrax,” Oltmann said…. No one had tested positive for anthrax poisoning…. None of the other 3,500 attendees… reported suffering…f anthrax…
LINK: <https://www.balloon-juice.com/2021/12/22/wednesday-evening-open-thread-anthrax1/>
Luke Muehlhauser: How Big a Deal Was the Industrial Revolution?: ‘Gains and losses in (these measures of) human well-being during the pre-industrial era are miniscule compared to the gains made during the post-industrial era, and there is a sharp upward trajectory change for all these measures shortly after 1800. This provides a qualitative, as well as loosely quantitative picture of the magnitude of change I have in mind when I speak of “transformative” change…. To many readers, it will not be a surprise that such a transformative change occurred shortly after the industrial revolution. What is perhaps more surprising is to consider how many major historical events seem to have not produced anything close to such a transformative change…. No other transitions in recorded history are remotely comparable…
LINK: <http://lukemuehlhauser.com/industrial-revolution/>