9 Comments
Jan 5, 2022Liked by Brad DeLong

Sold!

Expand full comment
author

Thx...

Expand full comment
author

Thx...

Expand full comment

Done.

And congratulations! I'm pleased that you haven't wasted the last 30 years!

Expand full comment
author

God! That would be a truly horrible prospect!

Expand full comment

It would be! But things can always be worse. What if, in the counterfactual, you had spent 30 years and billions of dollars on gravitational wave detector except that it turned out not to work ...

Most people reading Kuhn seem taken by his notion of scientists trapped like flies in amber by their "paradigms"; but I focus more on the thing he is trying to explain, the incredible perseverance in the face of risks that these scientists exhibit.

Expand full comment
author

But it is accepted that almost all of physics ideas will turn out to be badly wrong...

Expand full comment

If depends one what you mean by "failed to work". A negative result would have been even more profound and fertile than the positive result we have. As it is, gravitational wave detectors are detecting all sorts of gravitational waves, just as had been predicted. There was already a lot of evidence for them, so the surprises are in the details, frequencies, resonances and so on. Not detecting anything would have required a serious rethinking of general relativity, especially in light of so much evidence in its favor.

P.S. I got the impression that the existing gravitational wave detectors were originally proposed in the late 1960s or early 1970s. I remember hearing at least one proposal in 1971. It was basically the Michelson-Morley experiment but with lasers and looking for transient waves rather than a persistent current.

Expand full comment
author

Still, there is a conflict here: the ruthless status supremacy gained by priority in discovery is a marvelous human motivation device, but it does keep people from understanding how much it is the case that they also serve to stand and wait. It is productive for science. It is not terribly mentally healthy for scientists

Expand full comment