Investors gamble on DJT shares as potential political leverage. The marginal Wall Street investor holding the stock of DJT right now implicitly believes that the expected present value of future...
I saw the headline that a Trump podcaster promises to castrate himself on TV if Trump loses Iowa. Hyperbole, I hope and expect. How does one imagine such an idea unless one is a member of the latest Heaven's Gate? In other words, DJT and various betting markets are often ways to demonstrate fealty to their lord and savior, without expectation of financial remuneration. It would be similar to buying branded tennis shoes, bibles, etc.
Also, what are the odds that large players, including Russia, would throw some coin in that direction just to give the appearance that Trump had obvious popular support, in order to add weight to contesting the results? It would be similar to the flood of biased polls a few weeks ago.
I guess that podcaster has hung onto his nuts, even if he lost his marbles.
The result offer no contest. Trump has won, probably both branches of government to add to the already corrupt, unelected, 3rd branch. Will he succeed to purging the civil service, agencies, and even the top brass of the military to ensure absolute loyalty?
The Age of Uncertainty is upon us. Will the US really deport 3% of its population, cut federal expenditures by 6% of GDP, enter trade wars that halt Chinese imports and punish American farmers? Can Treasuries maintain liquidity if the Fed lacks independence, the Treasury forces issuance to cheap T-bills, and China stops buying? And how will an unbridled Trump respond to the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune? Low corporate taxes feel good, high volatility not - so much.
This doesn't seem right to me. You can pull the holders list on Bloomberg, and it by and large doesn't look like a list of people/firms trying to curry favor with a future president, or even institutions speculating on the value of a token that others will buy to curry favor with a president. Only 25% of the float is held by institutions in the first place (MSFT 78%) and among them it's a combo of passives (vanguard, blackrock, state Street, geode) and market making algorithmic traders (citadel, Jane st, de shaw). Scattered in there are firms that as Matt L has described, are in the transportation business of DJT, not the storage business. I.e. they are feeding the stock to retail buyers (booked long or short) and buying from insiders at a discount. It's a meme stock.
If you want to do a "favor" to Trump and be noticed, you can cut him a huuuge campaign check (ehem, Elon) or book a block of rooms at Mar a Lago, or any of a million different ways. Buying DJT on open market doesn't cut it.
Perhaps though, Trump would magnanimously divest his shares after the election - to avoid conflict of interest of course - and would be really grateful to those who stepped up to provide liquidity at that time.
I'd think the bet, assuming a Trump election, is either (a) that it will become some kind of media empire (as Trump appears to think, though he might just dump it) or (b) enough people will see it that way that one can get out quickly with a substantial profit.
I agree and would like to amplify. A likely play, should Trump win, is that Trump says important things only on DJT, and this forces many, many people to be on it - resulting in powerful growth.
Maybe this is the threat that has pushed Elon to be so front-and-center, because he has so much invested in Twitter, which got a big boost from Trump's presidency.
I saw the headline that a Trump podcaster promises to castrate himself on TV if Trump loses Iowa. Hyperbole, I hope and expect. How does one imagine such an idea unless one is a member of the latest Heaven's Gate? In other words, DJT and various betting markets are often ways to demonstrate fealty to their lord and savior, without expectation of financial remuneration. It would be similar to buying branded tennis shoes, bibles, etc.
Also, what are the odds that large players, including Russia, would throw some coin in that direction just to give the appearance that Trump had obvious popular support, in order to add weight to contesting the results? It would be similar to the flood of biased polls a few weeks ago.
I guess that podcaster has hung onto his nuts, even if he lost his marbles.
The result offer no contest. Trump has won, probably both branches of government to add to the already corrupt, unelected, 3rd branch. Will he succeed to purging the civil service, agencies, and even the top brass of the military to ensure absolute loyalty?
The Age of Uncertainty is upon us. Will the US really deport 3% of its population, cut federal expenditures by 6% of GDP, enter trade wars that halt Chinese imports and punish American farmers? Can Treasuries maintain liquidity if the Fed lacks independence, the Treasury forces issuance to cheap T-bills, and China stops buying? And how will an unbridled Trump respond to the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune? Low corporate taxes feel good, high volatility not - so much.
You may well be right, but I note the DJT price history looks rather similar to the betting probabilities of the election outcome. If so, couldn't that mean is is also a "meme stock"? https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/nov/04/presidential-election-betting-odds-polling
This doesn't seem right to me. You can pull the holders list on Bloomberg, and it by and large doesn't look like a list of people/firms trying to curry favor with a future president, or even institutions speculating on the value of a token that others will buy to curry favor with a president. Only 25% of the float is held by institutions in the first place (MSFT 78%) and among them it's a combo of passives (vanguard, blackrock, state Street, geode) and market making algorithmic traders (citadel, Jane st, de shaw). Scattered in there are firms that as Matt L has described, are in the transportation business of DJT, not the storage business. I.e. they are feeding the stock to retail buyers (booked long or short) and buying from insiders at a discount. It's a meme stock.
If you want to do a "favor" to Trump and be noticed, you can cut him a huuuge campaign check (ehem, Elon) or book a block of rooms at Mar a Lago, or any of a million different ways. Buying DJT on open market doesn't cut it.
Perhaps though, Trump would magnanimously divest his shares after the election - to avoid conflict of interest of course - and would be really grateful to those who stepped up to provide liquidity at that time.
DJT may be a business. But for the next day or two it surely is a big liquid prediction market.
It is _not_ a media business: it is a _schandeh_.
I'd think the bet, assuming a Trump election, is either (a) that it will become some kind of media empire (as Trump appears to think, though he might just dump it) or (b) enough people will see it that way that one can get out quickly with a substantial profit.
And the second makes good sense to me.
I agree and would like to amplify. A likely play, should Trump win, is that Trump says important things only on DJT, and this forces many, many people to be on it - resulting in powerful growth.
Maybe this is the threat that has pushed Elon to be so front-and-center, because he has so much invested in Twitter, which got a big boost from Trump's presidency.