LSMLGPTs are not þe singularity; 20,000 SubStack subscribers!; Jean Tirole on spheres of activity & selves; & Palmer on greedy right-wing nutcases, Posen on Britain's need for structural reform...
I do not know whether I take it seriously. It requires (1) Russian collapse and (2) American decision that suppressing Naziism is not worth the cost. And since the cost to a country with an atomic weapons monopoly is not that high, I see Nazi victory in the Caucasus-Volga and in the Battle of the Atlantic followed by the transformation of Germany into a lake of radioactive glass
Re: "maybe there are AR uses for allowing us to grok the world around us "
I was pretty disappointed that Google Glass never really got traction. I want a device that can see the faces of people at a party, and annotate the ones who are in my contacts book, to let me know who they are and how I know them. Apple's headset is obviously overkill for this, you need something that is less obtrusive.
But if output does not increase in the products/activities in which AGI increases labor this implies a decrease in the MPL of many workers and a need to change jobs, including new jobs that do not yet exist. We do not WANT a wealth increasing technology to concentrate wealth (as container ships and LD communications did) but what to DO?
I think this is THE question. It would be impossible for an economy to "adjust" to the numbers that Brad mentions without massive dislocations. What uses would there be for resources (workers) who were "freed" (fired) at that scale?
So have you read this Mercatante book? And do you take it seriously? I will grant this much: in retrospect it may be obvious that Germany had no chance of victory, but even in 1942 that was not yet clear to most contemporary observers.
Volker Ulrich, in his excellent Hitler biography, reckons that the Nazi enterprise was doomed once they invaded Czechoslovakia. He doesn't spell out why, but I think he means that after that it was no longer possible to get results by diplomacy, since their treaties were proven to be worthless. Anyway, that is the earliest point I know of that anyone has identified as the "point of doom."
Posen: If these are "emerging market thoughts," every country should think like an emerging market. Labour running on an explicit return to the EU platform, would be a clear signal of a regime change.
ESG: Not likely the second best way to deal with externalities. Second best is regulation + subsidies of substitutes. In what kind of world will ESC raise the cost of capital invested in fossil fuel production by enough to lead to any measurable change in the cost of emitting CO2? It's probably even less effective than blocking FF production or transportation projects!
" ...by carefully addressing the question of ergodicity, many puzzles besetting the current economic formalism are resolved in a natural and empirically testable way."
Too bad he did not give an example of a real live problem (not a theoretical puzzle) and its non-ergodic solution.
I suspect this really just points to the well know fact that uncertainty about the future is not well modeled as variance around a mean.
As for discounting, I think the issue here is making THE discount rate serve three separate functions a) cost of capital, b) time preference and c) uncertainty.
Brad: Are you interested in probing the Ole Peters 'ergodicity' question? I would be interested in what you had to say. In one sense it's part of a series of 'misuse of math' accusations that have needled economics for a while: aggregation controversies, unit roots, Phillip Mirowski's "You can't use Newton's math without Newton's assumptions", etc. But Peters' seems like a cooler objection: if only because you can sing "er-do-di-ci-ty, er-go-di-ci-ty" to the old Police song...
Yes indeed. I need one, badly, fuck with Dunbar's law and such…
I do not know whether I take it seriously. It requires (1) Russian collapse and (2) American decision that suppressing Naziism is not worth the cost. And since the cost to a country with an atomic weapons monopoly is not that high, I see Nazi victory in the Caucasus-Volga and in the Battle of the Atlantic followed by the transformation of Germany into a lake of radioactive glass
Re: "maybe there are AR uses for allowing us to grok the world around us "
I was pretty disappointed that Google Glass never really got traction. I want a device that can see the faces of people at a party, and annotate the ones who are in my contacts book, to let me know who they are and how I know them. Apple's headset is obviously overkill for this, you need something that is less obtrusive.
Yes: virtual nametags are the killer app for AR...
Also summarizable, transcripts, annotated, analysis of class lectures and dicussions.
The guy who had that job used to be called a nomenclator. He was usually a slave in charge of PR.
But if output does not increase in the products/activities in which AGI increases labor this implies a decrease in the MPL of many workers and a need to change jobs, including new jobs that do not yet exist. We do not WANT a wealth increasing technology to concentrate wealth (as container ships and LD communications did) but what to DO?
I think this is THE question. It would be impossible for an economy to "adjust" to the numbers that Brad mentions without massive dislocations. What uses would there be for resources (workers) who were "freed" (fired) at that scale?
So have you read this Mercatante book? And do you take it seriously? I will grant this much: in retrospect it may be obvious that Germany had no chance of victory, but even in 1942 that was not yet clear to most contemporary observers.
Volker Ulrich, in his excellent Hitler biography, reckons that the Nazi enterprise was doomed once they invaded Czechoslovakia. He doesn't spell out why, but I think he means that after that it was no longer possible to get results by diplomacy, since their treaties were proven to be worthless. Anyway, that is the earliest point I know of that anyone has identified as the "point of doom."
Posen: If these are "emerging market thoughts," every country should think like an emerging market. Labour running on an explicit return to the EU platform, would be a clear signal of a regime change.
ESG: Not likely the second best way to deal with externalities. Second best is regulation + subsidies of substitutes. In what kind of world will ESC raise the cost of capital invested in fossil fuel production by enough to lead to any measurable change in the cost of emitting CO2? It's probably even less effective than blocking FF production or transportation projects!
" ...by carefully addressing the question of ergodicity, many puzzles besetting the current economic formalism are resolved in a natural and empirically testable way."
Too bad he did not give an example of a real live problem (not a theoretical puzzle) and its non-ergodic solution.
I suspect this really just points to the well know fact that uncertainty about the future is not well modeled as variance around a mean.
As for discounting, I think the issue here is making THE discount rate serve three separate functions a) cost of capital, b) time preference and c) uncertainty.
Brad: Are you interested in probing the Ole Peters 'ergodicity' question? I would be interested in what you had to say. In one sense it's part of a series of 'misuse of math' accusations that have needled economics for a while: aggregation controversies, unit roots, Phillip Mirowski's "You can't use Newton's math without Newton's assumptions", etc. But Peters' seems like a cooler objection: if only because you can sing "er-do-di-ci-ty, er-go-di-ci-ty" to the old Police song...