BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2021-07-30 Fr

Things that went whizzing by that I want to remember:

First:

I had been thinking that mRNA vaccines gave you 1/8 the risk of catching the virus, 1/20 the risk of passing it on, and 1/50 the risk of dying from it. But this appears to suggest that the numbers are more like 1/8, 1/8, 1/25. And with the Delta variant having an R[0] of 7.5 suggests that the epidemic is almost fully self-sustaining in a fully vaccinated population. And it also raises the possibility that, unless infection-acquired immunity is stronger than mRNA vaccine immunity, it needs only one small mutation to become self-sustaining no matter what the primed-immune-system status of the population:

Yasmeen Abutaleb, Carolyn Y. Johnson, & Joel Achenbach‘The War Has Changed’: Internal CDC Document Urges New Messaging, Warns Delta Infections Likely More Severe: ‘The delta variant… cause[s] more severe illness than earlier variants and spreads as easily as chickenpox, according to an internal federal health document that argues officials must “acknowledge the war has changed.” The document… strikes an urgent note…. Vaccination… the best defense…. Vaccinated individuals infected with delta may be able to transmit the virus as easily as those who are unvaccinated…. “I finished reading it significantly more concerned than when I began,” Robert Wachter, chairman of the Department of Medicine at the University of California at San Francisco, wrote in an email…. There are 35,000 symptomatic infections per week among 162 million vaccinated Americans…. On May 13, people were told they no longer needed to wear masks indoors or outdoors if they had been vaccinated. The new guidance reflects a strategic retreat in the face of the delta variant…. The CDC’s revised mask guidance stops short of what the internal document calls for. “Given higher transmissibility and current vaccine coverage, universal masking is essential to reduce transmission of the Delta variant,” it states…. The vaccines are not as effective in immunocompromised patients and nursing home residents…. A person working in partnership with the CDC on investigations of the delta variant, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak, said the data came from a July 4 outbreak in Provincetown…. The person said the data was “deeply disconcerting” and a “canary in the coal mine” for scientists who had seen the data… 

LINK: <https://github.com/braddelong/public-files/blob/master/cdc.pdf> <https://github.com/braddelong/public-files/blob/master/readings/post-war-has-changed-2021-07-29.pdf>

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Adam Tooze(50th anniversary of German unification: Bismarck, Realpolitik, & Birth of a Nation <https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yF4INCn-sew>

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Very Briefly Noted:

Substack
Letter joins Substack to help independent writers work together
Clyde Rathbone, Monish Parajuli, and Dayne Rathbone of Letter. When we first saw Letter, a platform for written debate, we immediately recognized it as a fellow traveler. Here was a platform that encouraged thoughtful discussion among people who were incentivized to seek understanding rather than internet points, to argue in good faith instead of droppin……
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Paragraphs:

Nathan LaneManufacturing Revolutions: Industrial Policy and Industrialization in South Korea: ‘South Korea dramatically altered its development strategy with a sector-specific industrial policy: the Heavy Chemical and Industry (HCI) drive, 1973–1979…. I use the sharp introduction and withdrawal of industrial policies to study the impacts of industrial policy—during and after the intervention period…. (1) HCI promoted the expansion and dynamic comparative advantage of directly targeted industries. (2) Using variation in exposure to policies through the input-output network, I show HCI indirectly benefited downstream users of targeted intermediates. (3) I find direct and indirect benefits of HCI persisted even after the end of HCI.. the eventual development of directly targeted exporters and their downstream counterparts. Together, my findings suggest that the temporary drive shifted Korean manufacturing into more advanced markets and created durable industrial change. These findings clarify lessons drawn from South Korea and the East Asian growth miracle… 

LINK: <https://osf.io/preprints/socarxiv/6tqax>


Rumman Chowdhury’Friends, I am tired. I work hard to build good things and bring in the right people. Parity is no different. For the second time in two weeks, I have to fight a major media outlet for basic recognition of my work. The gaslighting is real. The erasure is real: “To set the record straight: Parity 2.0 wouldn’t exist without @ruchowdh. In between Accenture and Twitter, Rumman worked tirelessly on Parity for a year. She got customers, proved the model, validated the need, and invented a new way to identify bias in AI beyond ‘just data’.” Both Liz and I interviewed with @CadeMetz for this piece. He is well aware that (1) I was the CEO of Parity and incorporated it, and (2) I didn’t just ‘build a tool’ and move from a (nameless) role at Accenture to a (nameless) role at Twitter. He acknowledges this in the signal chats I am having with him. I explicitly asked him if he agreed with the context of the article. His response was to have a conversation to “explain how we put a story together and the (very careful) choices we make.” I will not entertain a conversation where I have to convince someone that my work deserves credit. This is not a matter of opinion, this is a matter of facts. I will also not entertain another conversation where I prove my worth to someone AS THEY SHOWCASE MY WORK. This is how people get erased. The history of Parity, as codified by the NYT, is that someone else started it. I’m a footnote that barely existed. This is what VCs will see. This is what potential clients will see. This is what the amazing future press will talk about. Because, mark my words, Parity is going to change an already stagnating industry by introducing new ideas and new modes of working. The dilemma I am stuck with-do I take constant time out to validate my existence with people like Cade? Do I take the call with him at 6pm (my first calendar opening, literally since 8:30am) to beg that he acknowledge my existence? Or, do I draw a line in the sand and refuse to acknolwedge the gate keepers of the major media outlets who seem to think that my work is good enough, but my name and my face aren’t? Knowing full well that by doing so, I become yet another person whose work is erased over time. I know that Liz will do everything to ensure that doesn’t happen. But a quick google search, and the Times article, will do the damage. So what, friends, do i do?

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