BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2021-07-30 Fr

Things that went whizzing by that I want to remember: First: I had been thinking that mRNA vaccines gave you 1/8 the risk of catching the virus, 1/20 the risk of passing it on, and 1/50 the risk of dying from it. But this appears to suggest that the numbers are more like 1/8, 1/8, 1/25. And with the Delta variant having an R[0] of 7.5 suggests that the epidemic is almost fully self-sustaining in a fully vaccinated population. And it also raises the possibility that, unless infection-acquired immunity is stronger than mRNA vaccine immunity, it needs only one small mutation to become self-sustaining no matter what the primed-immune-system status of the population...

Read →