Skewness in stock returns, AI hype, & mean reversion; transverse Mercator projections; Bell Labs in 1973; & Burke, Levine, Williams, & Fallows on warmongers, Ripple as a Schrödinger's security...
Regarding Jim Fallows' piece on the ProPublica story, I posted rather extensive comments on this based on my knowledge of the issue. In my long distant past I was involved in a number of policy groups on the Biological Weapons Convention and the Wuhan story has been blown all out of proportion. Go to the link Professor DeLong provided and go to the comments section if you are interested.
I didn't make it to Bell Labs until 1983. Lots of VAXs in the computer centers and terminals at desks by then (and Raquel's picture probably already taken down.) Special submittal to the CRAYs for the super-duper.
Propublica - "They might regain some of their credibility in my eyes"
Resonates on an emotional level, but distinctly overstated. We are left with perhaps a more realistic assessment of their credibility, moving forward. (I had the impression at the time that this was one of the many echoes of the SBF money shower.)
Billionaires and dictators are demented gamblers who got lucky? You are hacking my confirmation bias. But in the specific case of Putin, I do not believe that he expects *material* gains from annexing Ukraine. The commodities that Ukraine has are also possessed by Russia in abundance. I think he is a true believer: he really thinks that a viking slave trader was baptized a thousand years ago and that this created a mystical union between (non-existent) Ukraine and (non-existent) Russia.
As for the economic folly of warfare in the modern age, if you have not read Azar Gat's book "War in Human Civilization", I highly recommend it. It is a "big picture" book of the type you seem to like.
Regarding Jim Fallows' piece on the ProPublica story, I posted rather extensive comments on this based on my knowledge of the issue. In my long distant past I was involved in a number of policy groups on the Biological Weapons Convention and the Wuhan story has been blown all out of proportion. Go to the link Professor DeLong provided and go to the comments section if you are interested.
I didn't make it to Bell Labs until 1983. Lots of VAXs in the computer centers and terminals at desks by then (and Raquel's picture probably already taken down.) Special submittal to the CRAYs for the super-duper.
I think we had also moved on from programming to the music soundtrack of "Rockford Files" and "Kojak"
Propublica - "They might regain some of their credibility in my eyes"
Resonates on an emotional level, but distinctly overstated. We are left with perhaps a more realistic assessment of their credibility, moving forward. (I had the impression at the time that this was one of the many echoes of the SBF money shower.)
Billionaires and dictators are demented gamblers who got lucky? You are hacking my confirmation bias. But in the specific case of Putin, I do not believe that he expects *material* gains from annexing Ukraine. The commodities that Ukraine has are also possessed by Russia in abundance. I think he is a true believer: he really thinks that a viking slave trader was baptized a thousand years ago and that this created a mystical union between (non-existent) Ukraine and (non-existent) Russia.
As for the economic folly of warfare in the modern age, if you have not read Azar Gat's book "War in Human Civilization", I highly recommend it. It is a "big picture" book of the type you seem to like.
https://www.amazon.ca/War-Human-Civilization-Azar-Gat/dp/0199236631/ref=sr_1_1?crid=12TJE3QG962RI&keywords=azar+gat&qid=1689896617&s=books&sprefix=azar+gat%2Cstripbooks%2C97&sr=1-1