In 2023, I think that "centrism" is crypto-fascism in a clown suit. And in 2011? Well that depends on what Drezner thought he was doing. If he had taken note of the casualty lists coming back from the front, registered the Slaughter of the Moderates within the GOP, and doggedly persevered in a defensive action, aware that the position looked hopeless but determined to give the party a chance to recover up to its last breath, well then I have to respect and admire fearlessness in the face of death. And to be sure, Daniel M. Drezner is a nice man, and a smart one too. But I clicked through the link to his substack and I did not see any hint that he was aware of the situation. At some point, one is obliged to make a realistic assessment of the situation and take action accordingly. Perhaps 2016 was that point; but I think it might have come earlier.
I think there's room to see the slide of conservatism into and through the 2000s as a genuine attempt a good faith governance being derailed by a toxic but small group caught in the conservative political apparatus.
The way the party grappled with McCain's loss without accountability towards the legislatures that built the opposition machine in the 90s and the executive circle that failed the US public in Iraq, Katrina, and the financial crisis. That should have been a clear sign to anyone paying attention to politics that the party was aimless and lost.
By 2016, it was clear the party was aiming in the most awful direction.
"The only reason to believe that there will be a recession in the next year is the inversion of the yield curve. ..... But does yield curve inversion right now represent rational forecasts of bond traders? Or is it the result of the fact that the bond market now has a huge number of people in it who have, throughout their careers, always won by betting that bond prices will go up?:"
That hypothesis is looking increasingly likely. The doomsayers said that the recession will be here in 12 months since the yield curve first inverted last year. That hasn't happened or seems unlikely to happen so far given the recent data on the economy. The diehards now insist that you've got to give 12-18 months, on average, for the inverted yield curve-led recession to appear. They seem to be saying that it is too soon to sit back and relax. But you're right to observe that an entire generation or two of bond traders have surfed the bond bull market since circa 1980-85, though they did see some wrenching episodes (thanks to Europe) on the way. On another related issue: the broader shape of the Conference Board's Composite Leading Economic Indicator is swayed a lot by the inverted yield curve. If you have doubts about the underlying reason for the yield curve's inversion, then you must also maintain a healthy doubt about that Leading Indicator.
Christopher Klein: That's a very implausible end to that tale. TB germs surviving the pyre? (Or am I getting it all wrong?). As kids, we were assigned a collection of short stories in an English course. One of them was The Mark of Vishnu, by Kushwant Singh (Google it). It dealt nicely with superstition and ignorance (and in a more persuasive way).
I'll start worrying about China when as many Americans seek Chinese passports as Chinese seek American passports. Heck, I'll even adjust for the population differential and throw in an extra factor of two for good luck.
US Economy: Just how much of these extraordinary profit increases have been due to raising prices born by the consumer?
Has the Gini coef. continued to rise as these profits are acquired by the already very wealthy? Is it a coincidence that demands for unionization at retail establishments is on the rise, notably at Starbucks that continues to stymie union recognition?
Hong Kong. <a href="https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/HKG/hong-kong/gdp-growth-rate">GDP Growth</a>. It has been slipping for decades, but Xi Jinping's authoritarian changes seem to have really worsened the situation. On a personal note, I briefly visited HK in 1998 a year after Britain handed it over to China.. The week that I was there, The South China Post newspaper had zero listed ads for job vacancies - a first I was told.
What would interest me is whether this sort of authoritarian government takeover has historically demonstrated similar effects in other nations?
Heimberger: Thanks for the double negative! Even if one reasonably expects deficits (during non-recessions) ceteris paribus to be a drag on growth, that would hardly lead one to thing that accumulated deficits (debt) would show up as lower growth, too many ceteris non paribus. I guess it’s always worth holding up a cross to the ghost of Ken Rogoff but I hope this is not a distraction from the need to raise taxes to reduce deficits.
Industrial policy: There should be one policy instrument for each objective. Since there are many different objectives for “industrial policy,” one should there to be many different instruments. The use of just one, subsidizing capital investment, should make one suspicious even without taking account of that not being the first best instrument for any of the objectives put forward.
Global warming: The accumulation of CO2 in the atmosphere has many costs; higher temperatures in cities is one of them. What else is new? Is this the only evidence that the emission of CO2 into the atmosphere is a negative externality best addressed with Pigou taxation of the emission?
Drezner: Call yourself a hippopotamus if you like as long as you keep supporting sensible neo-liberal policies. 😊
Hausmann, et al: Sure, but is this an advance over Hayek?
Hausmann et al: Yes, it does look like an advancement over Hayek, especially in measurement. It is always good to know that some prior honcho wasn't making it all up, however persuasive that person's underlying logic or observation. Plus, what Hausmann et al seem to be uncovering/measuring is within-country advances in "complexity" and how markets harness it over time. They also examine cross-country differences that probably yield some new insights. For example, the insight where a country's measure of its current "complexity" relative to its current per capita income could be predictive of future growth was interesting.
In 2023, I think that "centrism" is crypto-fascism in a clown suit. And in 2011? Well that depends on what Drezner thought he was doing. If he had taken note of the casualty lists coming back from the front, registered the Slaughter of the Moderates within the GOP, and doggedly persevered in a defensive action, aware that the position looked hopeless but determined to give the party a chance to recover up to its last breath, well then I have to respect and admire fearlessness in the face of death. And to be sure, Daniel M. Drezner is a nice man, and a smart one too. But I clicked through the link to his substack and I did not see any hint that he was aware of the situation. At some point, one is obliged to make a realistic assessment of the situation and take action accordingly. Perhaps 2016 was that point; but I think it might have come earlier.
"And in 2011?" You're probably a very nice and generous person. You could've asked "And in 1995?" instead.
I think there's room to see the slide of conservatism into and through the 2000s as a genuine attempt a good faith governance being derailed by a toxic but small group caught in the conservative political apparatus.
The way the party grappled with McCain's loss without accountability towards the legislatures that built the opposition machine in the 90s and the executive circle that failed the US public in Iraq, Katrina, and the financial crisis. That should have been a clear sign to anyone paying attention to politics that the party was aimless and lost.
By 2016, it was clear the party was aiming in the most awful direction.
"The only reason to believe that there will be a recession in the next year is the inversion of the yield curve. ..... But does yield curve inversion right now represent rational forecasts of bond traders? Or is it the result of the fact that the bond market now has a huge number of people in it who have, throughout their careers, always won by betting that bond prices will go up?:"
That hypothesis is looking increasingly likely. The doomsayers said that the recession will be here in 12 months since the yield curve first inverted last year. That hasn't happened or seems unlikely to happen so far given the recent data on the economy. The diehards now insist that you've got to give 12-18 months, on average, for the inverted yield curve-led recession to appear. They seem to be saying that it is too soon to sit back and relax. But you're right to observe that an entire generation or two of bond traders have surfed the bond bull market since circa 1980-85, though they did see some wrenching episodes (thanks to Europe) on the way. On another related issue: the broader shape of the Conference Board's Composite Leading Economic Indicator is swayed a lot by the inverted yield curve. If you have doubts about the underlying reason for the yield curve's inversion, then you must also maintain a healthy doubt about that Leading Indicator.
Christopher Klein: That's a very implausible end to that tale. TB germs surviving the pyre? (Or am I getting it all wrong?). As kids, we were assigned a collection of short stories in an English course. One of them was The Mark of Vishnu, by Kushwant Singh (Google it). It dealt nicely with superstition and ignorance (and in a more persuasive way).
Sorry, I didn't get it right.
I'll start worrying about China when as many Americans seek Chinese passports as Chinese seek American passports. Heck, I'll even adjust for the population differential and throw in an extra factor of two for good luck.
US Economy: Just how much of these extraordinary profit increases have been due to raising prices born by the consumer?
Has the Gini coef. continued to rise as these profits are acquired by the already very wealthy? Is it a coincidence that demands for unionization at retail establishments is on the rise, notably at Starbucks that continues to stymie union recognition?
Hong Kong. <a href="https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/HKG/hong-kong/gdp-growth-rate">GDP Growth</a>. It has been slipping for decades, but Xi Jinping's authoritarian changes seem to have really worsened the situation. On a personal note, I briefly visited HK in 1998 a year after Britain handed it over to China.. The week that I was there, The South China Post newspaper had zero listed ads for job vacancies - a first I was told.
What would interest me is whether this sort of authoritarian government takeover has historically demonstrated similar effects in other nations?
Heimberger: Thanks for the double negative! Even if one reasonably expects deficits (during non-recessions) ceteris paribus to be a drag on growth, that would hardly lead one to thing that accumulated deficits (debt) would show up as lower growth, too many ceteris non paribus. I guess it’s always worth holding up a cross to the ghost of Ken Rogoff but I hope this is not a distraction from the need to raise taxes to reduce deficits.
Industrial policy: There should be one policy instrument for each objective. Since there are many different objectives for “industrial policy,” one should there to be many different instruments. The use of just one, subsidizing capital investment, should make one suspicious even without taking account of that not being the first best instrument for any of the objectives put forward.
Global warming: The accumulation of CO2 in the atmosphere has many costs; higher temperatures in cities is one of them. What else is new? Is this the only evidence that the emission of CO2 into the atmosphere is a negative externality best addressed with Pigou taxation of the emission?
Drezner: Call yourself a hippopotamus if you like as long as you keep supporting sensible neo-liberal policies. 😊
Hausmann, et al: Sure, but is this an advance over Hayek?
Hausmann et al: Yes, it does look like an advancement over Hayek, especially in measurement. It is always good to know that some prior honcho wasn't making it all up, however persuasive that person's underlying logic or observation. Plus, what Hausmann et al seem to be uncovering/measuring is within-country advances in "complexity" and how markets harness it over time. They also examine cross-country differences that probably yield some new insights. For example, the insight where a country's measure of its current "complexity" relative to its current per capita income could be predictive of future growth was interesting.