The reality of Bayesian-distribution tails; Britain’s George Osborne imagines that not friendship but money is magic; Team Transitory!; you should read Matt Yglesias especially if you find him...
Whether or not you think distributions are real, it is never right to treat a moment that diverges as if it were a number. There is no world in which SBF makes infinity dollars.
If I could surface one Peters paper, it would be The Microfoundations of Discounting https://arxiv.org/abs/1910.02137. Requires no stochastic calculus and explains lucidly under what circumstances it might be rational to discount hyperbolically or indeed not at all.
Matt’s blog is great. And “Slow Boring” is obviously a clever name for a Substack. But it’s worth noting that what makes "Politics as a Vocation" so great is not the just the prose of the core message, which is that those who truly should go into politics are those who are willing to do the hard work of driving incremental change and who are willing to make the necessary compromises to do so, the “slow boring” that Matt’s references.
What makes "Politics as a a Vocation" so wonderful is also the poetry that Weber adds in one of the final paragraphs, a passage that I think is perhaps the most profound and moving in all of the social sciences.
Weber is contrasting an "ethic of ultimate ends" where politicians "do the right thing" no matter the consequences and an "ethic of responsibility" where the consequences is all that matters and politicians do what it takes to move the ball forward for their constituents, even if it involves grubby compromises where no one is truly happy. Fundamentally, "Politics as a Vocation" is Weber's argument that politics is a vocation for those who are prepared to embrace an ethic of responsibility.
But then, near the conclusion, Weber suddenly squares the circle when he writes the following:
"Surely, politics is made with the head, but it is certainly not made with the head alone. In this the proponents of an ethic of ultimate ends are right. One cannot prescribe to anyone whether he should follow an ethic of absolute ends or an ethic of responsibility, or when the one and when the other. One can say only this much: If in these times, which, in your opinion, are not times of 'sterile' excitation is not, after all, genuine passion, if now suddenly the Weltanschauungs politicians crop up en masse and pass the watchword, 'The world is stupid and base, not I,' 'The responsibility for the consequences does not fall upon me but upon the others whom I serve and whose stupidity or baseness I shall eradicate,' then I declare frankly that I would first inquire into the degree of inner
poise backing this ethic of ultimate ends. I am under the impression that in nine out of ten cases I deal with windbags who do not fully realize what they take upon themselves but who intoxicate themselves with romantic sensations. From a human point of view this is not very interesting to me, nor does it move me profoundly. However, it is immensely moving when a mature man, no matter whether old or young in years, is aware of a responsibility for the consequences of his conduct and really feels such responsibility with heart and soul. He then acts by following an ethic of responsibility and somewhere he reaches the point where he says: 'Here I stand; I can do no other.' That is something genuinely human and moving. And every one of us who is not spiritually dead must realize the possibility of finding himself at some time in that position. In so far as this is true, an ethic of ultimate ends and an ethic of responsibility are not absolute contrasts but rather supplements, which only in unison constitute a genuine man, a man who can have the 'calling for politics.'"
Neoliberal Nincompoop: I was analyzing why you received that unexpected response by looking at the words you used in your exchange with Davies. My bet is on "summon" and "spirits." It couldn't be "George," "Osborne" and "nincompoop."
Rapture of the Nerds followed by not one, but two visions of the Apocalypse. Are you telling us that the nerds, and all of us, have something else very real to fear in the near future?
I would hardly say that the Hasmonean Dynasty that followed the writing of the last part of the Book of Daniel was the eternal rule of one like unto the Son of Man; nor were any among St. Paul’s congregation in Thessaly ever caught up in the air still alive to meet the LORD in the clouds…
The purpose of apocalyptic writing is to give encouragement to believers in dark days. The cavalry WILL ride over the ridge, Malakand Will be relieved.
Whether or not you think distributions are real, it is never right to treat a moment that diverges as if it were a number. There is no world in which SBF makes infinity dollars.
If I could surface one Peters paper, it would be The Microfoundations of Discounting https://arxiv.org/abs/1910.02137. Requires no stochastic calculus and explains lucidly under what circumstances it might be rational to discount hyperbolically or indeed not at all.
As I was reading the abstract of https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.26.20220111v2.full I was reminded of a joke I made up about bad use of data: "If you look at the rate of falls by age, it is obvious that as you age, the force of gravity increases."
Looking at the Republican induced morbidity, my immediate thought was "Seems like not just intellectual zombies."
Matt’s blog is great. And “Slow Boring” is obviously a clever name for a Substack. But it’s worth noting that what makes "Politics as a Vocation" so great is not the just the prose of the core message, which is that those who truly should go into politics are those who are willing to do the hard work of driving incremental change and who are willing to make the necessary compromises to do so, the “slow boring” that Matt’s references.
What makes "Politics as a a Vocation" so wonderful is also the poetry that Weber adds in one of the final paragraphs, a passage that I think is perhaps the most profound and moving in all of the social sciences.
Weber is contrasting an "ethic of ultimate ends" where politicians "do the right thing" no matter the consequences and an "ethic of responsibility" where the consequences is all that matters and politicians do what it takes to move the ball forward for their constituents, even if it involves grubby compromises where no one is truly happy. Fundamentally, "Politics as a Vocation" is Weber's argument that politics is a vocation for those who are prepared to embrace an ethic of responsibility.
But then, near the conclusion, Weber suddenly squares the circle when he writes the following:
"Surely, politics is made with the head, but it is certainly not made with the head alone. In this the proponents of an ethic of ultimate ends are right. One cannot prescribe to anyone whether he should follow an ethic of absolute ends or an ethic of responsibility, or when the one and when the other. One can say only this much: If in these times, which, in your opinion, are not times of 'sterile' excitation is not, after all, genuine passion, if now suddenly the Weltanschauungs politicians crop up en masse and pass the watchword, 'The world is stupid and base, not I,' 'The responsibility for the consequences does not fall upon me but upon the others whom I serve and whose stupidity or baseness I shall eradicate,' then I declare frankly that I would first inquire into the degree of inner
poise backing this ethic of ultimate ends. I am under the impression that in nine out of ten cases I deal with windbags who do not fully realize what they take upon themselves but who intoxicate themselves with romantic sensations. From a human point of view this is not very interesting to me, nor does it move me profoundly. However, it is immensely moving when a mature man, no matter whether old or young in years, is aware of a responsibility for the consequences of his conduct and really feels such responsibility with heart and soul. He then acts by following an ethic of responsibility and somewhere he reaches the point where he says: 'Here I stand; I can do no other.' That is something genuinely human and moving. And every one of us who is not spiritually dead must realize the possibility of finding himself at some time in that position. In so far as this is true, an ethic of ultimate ends and an ethic of responsibility are not absolute contrasts but rather supplements, which only in unison constitute a genuine man, a man who can have the 'calling for politics.'"
Neoliberal Nincompoop: I was analyzing why you received that unexpected response by looking at the words you used in your exchange with Davies. My bet is on "summon" and "spirits." It couldn't be "George," "Osborne" and "nincompoop."
Rapture of the Nerds followed by not one, but two visions of the Apocalypse. Are you telling us that the nerds, and all of us, have something else very real to fear in the near future?
I would hardly say that the Hasmonean Dynasty that followed the writing of the last part of the Book of Daniel was the eternal rule of one like unto the Son of Man; nor were any among St. Paul’s congregation in Thessaly ever caught up in the air still alive to meet the LORD in the clouds…
The purpose of apocalyptic writing is to give encouragement to believers in dark days. The cavalry WILL ride over the ridge, Malakand Will be relieved.