Longer-run fundamentals continuing to push r* downward; the late-1800s arrival of militarized social darwinism in the intellectual mix; don’t put too much Marx in the Legal Studies syllabus stew!...
What ks going on by income quintiles across the cohorts is clear. Cohort-Life expectancies come closer to the actual "life years lived" experience than period-life expectancies. A period-life expectancy calculation basically imagines the current period's age distribution of mortality as a life itself to calculate the expectancy (under some very unreasonable assumptions). But people may go on to live longer or shorter than what the current period's age distribution of mortality may imply. The age distribution of mortality could be worse or better in the future.
But that poses a dilemma. If the bulk of the 1960 cohort is still alive, how does one know their cohort life expectancies accurately? You can't (without some assumptions). All you have is truncated information and a truncated life table. A cohort life table won't be complete until the entire cohort has perished. We are then left with the awfully adequate period-life expectancies.
One way to know how period-life expectancies (PLE) could mislead is to study the relationships between period-life expectancies in the past along with cohort-life expectancies (CLE) of the cohorts that have perished. Under what circumstances did PLE in -- say 1900 -- underestimate/overestimated how long a cohort ended up living in future years? Why did that happen? This has been done, though not with life tables, themselves, but with data on deaths/mortality to study aging.
I would say that American "populism" may be tied to Trump right now, but there are plenty of folks on the Right organizing to make a doctrinal version. We won't like it.
"Political satire became obsolete when Henry Kissinger was awarded the Nobel peace prize." In defense of Heny Kissinger, the Nobel peace prize is often awarded prematurely. Kissinger was not omnipotent. It is unfair to blame him for genocide in Cambodia. North Vietnam dragged Cambodia into the war by using that country for supply routes and as a sanctuary for their troops. And Pol Pot was responsible for the genocide. Furthermore Pakistan, not Kissinger, was responsible for the attempted genocide in Bangladesh. And Indonesia, not Kissinger, was responsible for the invasion of East Timor. All of these nation states have agency, and their decisions are not dictated by the U.S.
“Unherd” summed up Kissinger’s political philosophy best:
Disorder is worse than injustice, since injustice merely means the world is imperfect, while disorder tempts anarchy and the Hobbesian nightmare of war and conflict, of all against all.
It follows, then, that order is more important than freedom, since without order there is no freedom for anybody.
The fundamental issue in international and domestic affairs is not the control of wickedness, but the limitation of self-righteousness. For it is self-righteousness that often leads to war and the most extreme forms of repression, both at home and abroad.
The aim of policy is to reconcile what is just with what is possible. Journalists and "activists" have it easy in life since they can concern themselves only with what is just. Policymakers, burdened with bureaucratic responsibility in order to advance a nation’s self-interest, have no such luxury.
Pessimism can often be morally superior to misplaced optimism. Pessimism, therefore, is not necessarily to be disparaged.
In short, a pragmatic philosophy that deals with the world and human nature the way it is, not the way it should be.
One Image: Cohort-Life Expectancy.
What ks going on by income quintiles across the cohorts is clear. Cohort-Life expectancies come closer to the actual "life years lived" experience than period-life expectancies. A period-life expectancy calculation basically imagines the current period's age distribution of mortality as a life itself to calculate the expectancy (under some very unreasonable assumptions). But people may go on to live longer or shorter than what the current period's age distribution of mortality may imply. The age distribution of mortality could be worse or better in the future.
But that poses a dilemma. If the bulk of the 1960 cohort is still alive, how does one know their cohort life expectancies accurately? You can't (without some assumptions). All you have is truncated information and a truncated life table. A cohort life table won't be complete until the entire cohort has perished. We are then left with the awfully adequate period-life expectancies.
One way to know how period-life expectancies (PLE) could mislead is to study the relationships between period-life expectancies in the past along with cohort-life expectancies (CLE) of the cohorts that have perished. Under what circumstances did PLE in -- say 1900 -- underestimate/overestimated how long a cohort ended up living in future years? Why did that happen? This has been done, though not with life tables, themselves, but with data on deaths/mortality to study aging.
"An open-and-shut case finally revealed the criminal behind the legend"
When the legend becomes criminal, print the crime.
I would say that American "populism" may be tied to Trump right now, but there are plenty of folks on the Right organizing to make a doctrinal version. We won't like it.
"Political satire became obsolete when Henry Kissinger was awarded the Nobel peace prize." In defense of Heny Kissinger, the Nobel peace prize is often awarded prematurely. Kissinger was not omnipotent. It is unfair to blame him for genocide in Cambodia. North Vietnam dragged Cambodia into the war by using that country for supply routes and as a sanctuary for their troops. And Pol Pot was responsible for the genocide. Furthermore Pakistan, not Kissinger, was responsible for the attempted genocide in Bangladesh. And Indonesia, not Kissinger, was responsible for the invasion of East Timor. All of these nation states have agency, and their decisions are not dictated by the U.S.
“Unherd” summed up Kissinger’s political philosophy best:
Disorder is worse than injustice, since injustice merely means the world is imperfect, while disorder tempts anarchy and the Hobbesian nightmare of war and conflict, of all against all.
It follows, then, that order is more important than freedom, since without order there is no freedom for anybody.
The fundamental issue in international and domestic affairs is not the control of wickedness, but the limitation of self-righteousness. For it is self-righteousness that often leads to war and the most extreme forms of repression, both at home and abroad.
The aim of policy is to reconcile what is just with what is possible. Journalists and "activists" have it easy in life since they can concern themselves only with what is just. Policymakers, burdened with bureaucratic responsibility in order to advance a nation’s self-interest, have no such luxury.
Pessimism can often be morally superior to misplaced optimism. Pessimism, therefore, is not necessarily to be disparaged.
In short, a pragmatic philosophy that deals with the world and human nature the way it is, not the way it should be.