Dan Wang & Derek Thompson on how china’s economic miracle went off the rails; May 2024 Fed rate cut probability at 77%; very briefly noted; Ezra Klein talks to Kevin Roose and Casey Newton about OpenA
Noah Smith: "you should know what’s actually happening."
The "conceit" of the educated that people "ought to know"? Spending any time communicating on social media it is quite clear that most people have no idea of what goes on apart from anecdotal information from friends. No amount of presenting data and statistics is accepted - indeed often derided as a "liberal media lies",
The danger is that the assumption that people should be an educated citizenry can result in the old idea that control of the population should be "by their betters". What should be pushed for is finding ways to to get the average person to be able to access real information rather than such [biased] anecdotal information. Unfortunately, we also have pushback against education ("universities brainwash our kids with communist ideas") possibly promulgated by those wishing to maintain their control of the population. It is a tension that in the current state seems difficult to correct.
On Vibes vs. Data. This is everywhere. Polls of Iowans show perception of the economy as bad. Two weeks ago I was in the mall in Des Moines. It was packed. Importantly, there was a line of people about 50 feet long out the door for ... a soup kitchen? Food bank? Nope. "Build-a-Bear Workshop."
"I believe that freedom is a meta-value, because there are real values in the world ... honesty, generosity, loyalty are real ... maybe not in the same way as a rock is real, but no less real than a rock ... and therefore freedom is not a value like other values, freedom is a value because it's the thing that allows us to make decisions among the other values. So ... loyalty and honesty are good but they don't always go together. For example, as you get older, when people say 'you look great', it takes on a different significance; it's shifting from honesty to loyalty - but it's not both. In a friendship, sometimes you're loyal, and sometimes you're honest, but if you're free, you're thinking about which one and in which combination." [At this point he acknowledges the influence of his teacher Leszek Kolakowski.]
Audience Question [paraphrase] Are *all* the Russians responsible for this war? Those who actively support it, those who passively support it, and those who take part? But everyone knows that Putin is a dictator, and dictatorship means that people have no freedom ... if [Russians] are not free, you can think that they bear no responsibility for the situation ... I do believe they are responsible, but help me [reconcile this contradiction.]
Snyder's answer to that question was very interesting.
Kirshner: It does not do so without the help of another party not dedicated to policies of inclusive growth: taxation to reduce deficits, merit-based immigration, low-cost measures to address climate change, cost benefit vetted regulation, smart globalization.
Thx...
Noah Smith: "you should know what’s actually happening."
The "conceit" of the educated that people "ought to know"? Spending any time communicating on social media it is quite clear that most people have no idea of what goes on apart from anecdotal information from friends. No amount of presenting data and statistics is accepted - indeed often derided as a "liberal media lies",
The danger is that the assumption that people should be an educated citizenry can result in the old idea that control of the population should be "by their betters". What should be pushed for is finding ways to to get the average person to be able to access real information rather than such [biased] anecdotal information. Unfortunately, we also have pushback against education ("universities brainwash our kids with communist ideas") possibly promulgated by those wishing to maintain their control of the population. It is a tension that in the current state seems difficult to correct.
Smith/Burn-Murdoch: it's simple; two reasons.
1. The public disbelieves the elites telling them everything is great.
2. The public believes the elites telling them everything is terrible.
Corollary: Public believes that presidents and congresses determine inflation and unemployment.
On Vibes vs. Data. This is everywhere. Polls of Iowans show perception of the economy as bad. Two weeks ago I was in the mall in Des Moines. It was packed. Importantly, there was a line of people about 50 feet long out the door for ... a soup kitchen? Food bank? Nope. "Build-a-Bear Workshop."
Off topic:
https://cleantechnica.com/2023/11/30/what-drives-this-madness-on-small-modular-nuclear-reactors/
From Timothy Snyder: Freedom as a Value and a Task - a Talk in Kyiv https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_LkXsW14qJQ
"I believe that freedom is a meta-value, because there are real values in the world ... honesty, generosity, loyalty are real ... maybe not in the same way as a rock is real, but no less real than a rock ... and therefore freedom is not a value like other values, freedom is a value because it's the thing that allows us to make decisions among the other values. So ... loyalty and honesty are good but they don't always go together. For example, as you get older, when people say 'you look great', it takes on a different significance; it's shifting from honesty to loyalty - but it's not both. In a friendship, sometimes you're loyal, and sometimes you're honest, but if you're free, you're thinking about which one and in which combination." [At this point he acknowledges the influence of his teacher Leszek Kolakowski.]
Audience Question [paraphrase] Are *all* the Russians responsible for this war? Those who actively support it, those who passively support it, and those who take part? But everyone knows that Putin is a dictator, and dictatorship means that people have no freedom ... if [Russians] are not free, you can think that they bear no responsibility for the situation ... I do believe they are responsible, but help me [reconcile this contradiction.]
Snyder's answer to that question was very interesting.
re: Jonathan Kirshner: Rigged Capitalism and the Rise of Pluto-Populism: On Martin Wolf’s “The Crisis of Democratic Capitalism”
I rather liked this article putting our current situation in some historical perspective.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/19/opinion/rich-billionaires-philanthropy-covid.html
Re: Ezra Klein: Interview with Casey Newton & Kevin Roose
Cory Doctorrow has a more interesting take on this "kerfuffle": The Real AI Fight https://pluralistic.net/2023/11/27/10-types-of-people/
Jürgen Osterhammel & Patrick Camiller: And to obtain benefits smaller than available from free trade. :)
Kirshner: It does not do so without the help of another party not dedicated to policies of inclusive growth: taxation to reduce deficits, merit-based immigration, low-cost measures to address climate change, cost benefit vetted regulation, smart globalization.
Belello: But will it be in time to avoid recession? Or is this an expectation of a reaction TO recession?