“Homeostasis” according to Stafford Beer; Serlet on why MAMLMs work; very briefly noted; resentment of the poor by the rich; expanding the Supreme Court as job #1; & Essential & Key Readings for...
Nicely done video. However, right at the end I think he jumps to a conclusion about "reasoning". There is precious little to show that LLMs reason. They can memorize. They can interpolate concepts. My experience is that they can form a few analogies. But reasoning - i.e. logically connect a chain of concepts, I don't yet see evidence for. Maybe that is as simple as further scaling, or maybe it needs additional models. Simple reasoning, such as achieved by young children seems within its grasp, although without good experiments to ensure it is not parrotting from its data I would hesitate to say YES/NO.
Fred Clark tends to get it right. I first read him when he was debating the Christian principles involved in taking a job with a microcredit charity that charged interest. His article on Missouri denialists - those who do not believe that Missouri actually exists - was perfect. Most of the resentment in the world is people resenting people less well off. It's the old "being poor can't be that bad if you still have a cell phone" or "those 1930s breadlines weren't that bad; all those guys had hats". It explains all those small business tyrants upset that their workers get food stamps, housing vouchers and possibly even medical care. This resentment is something that has always been out in the open, but most observers ignore it the way a Missouri denialist has to avoid counting the 50 stars on the US flag. Clark nails it nicely and puts it, as he often does, in a good Christian framework. If there were more Christians like him, Brand Christian wouldn't be as deprecated today.
Ritholtz: Starting from first principles -- for a central bank I will assume is objective to be maximizing real market value income (over what period at what rate of time preference) and having at its disposal a (fixed?) menu of policy instruments -- can it's decisions be described (best?) as affecting the trajectory of a vector of (which?) prices?
Is there an analogy here with the explanation given by Serlet of LLM?
Is this the question we are asking when we ask which price index the Fed should use in deciding what to do with the EFFR?
Bertrand Serlet: Thoughts on Why AI Works
Nicely done video. However, right at the end I think he jumps to a conclusion about "reasoning". There is precious little to show that LLMs reason. They can memorize. They can interpolate concepts. My experience is that they can form a few analogies. But reasoning - i.e. logically connect a chain of concepts, I don't yet see evidence for. Maybe that is as simple as further scaling, or maybe it needs additional models. Simple reasoning, such as achieved by young children seems within its grasp, although without good experiments to ensure it is not parrotting from its data I would hesitate to say YES/NO.
Fred Clark tends to get it right. I first read him when he was debating the Christian principles involved in taking a job with a microcredit charity that charged interest. His article on Missouri denialists - those who do not believe that Missouri actually exists - was perfect. Most of the resentment in the world is people resenting people less well off. It's the old "being poor can't be that bad if you still have a cell phone" or "those 1930s breadlines weren't that bad; all those guys had hats". It explains all those small business tyrants upset that their workers get food stamps, housing vouchers and possibly even medical care. This resentment is something that has always been out in the open, but most observers ignore it the way a Missouri denialist has to avoid counting the 50 stars on the US flag. Clark nails it nicely and puts it, as he often does, in a good Christian framework. If there were more Christians like him, Brand Christian wouldn't be as deprecated today.
Ritholtz: Starting from first principles -- for a central bank I will assume is objective to be maximizing real market value income (over what period at what rate of time preference) and having at its disposal a (fixed?) menu of policy instruments -- can it's decisions be described (best?) as affecting the trajectory of a vector of (which?) prices?
Is there an analogy here with the explanation given by Serlet of LLM?
Is this the question we are asking when we ask which price index the Fed should use in deciding what to do with the EFFR?