I'm just a retired English professor of very little brain, & I've stayed outside Silver's paywall because I'm not interested in betting on sports. On politics, I've understood him since in one presidential election he was offering 8-1 odds & someone on TV insisted it was a tossup: Silver offered to take those odds for whatever amount the…
I'm just a retired English professor of very little brain, & I've stayed outside Silver's paywall because I'm not interested in betting on sports. On politics, I've understood him since in one presidential election he was offering 8-1 odds & someone on TV insisted it was a tossup: Silver offered to take those odds for whatever amount the fool wanted.
Thinking about probabilities is hard, and it's amazing how poorly we do it. For example, if a medical test is 95% accurate & the incidence of a disease is 5%, what are the odds a positive test is false? Ask you doc & be appalled.
I'm just a retired English professor of very little brain, & I've stayed outside Silver's paywall because I'm not interested in betting on sports. On politics, I've understood him since in one presidential election he was offering 8-1 odds & someone on TV insisted it was a tossup: Silver offered to take those odds for whatever amount the fool wanted.
Thinking about probabilities is hard, and it's amazing how poorly we do it. For example, if a medical test is 95% accurate & the incidence of a disease is 5%, what are the odds a positive test is false? Ask you doc & be appalled.