With respect, your views on Ukraine are ... unsound, and not only because America is not actually a principal in the Russia-Ukraine war (you can tell from the name!)
The attack on Ukraine is an existential threat to America. The problem with guaranteeing Ukraine's security is that you (and Russia, and the UK) have already made that guaran…
With respect, your views on Ukraine are ... unsound, and not only because America is not actually a principal in the Russia-Ukraine war (you can tell from the name!)
The attack on Ukraine is an existential threat to America. The problem with guaranteeing Ukraine's security is that you (and Russia, and the UK) have already made that guarantee but have not made good on it. This undermines the general belief that America has the ability and the will to maintain the global order. We have already seen historic changes of sentiment in Finland, Sweden, and Germany, but that is just the beginning. Once Trump returns to office, how much credibility will NATO retain? Remember, his dream was to run it like a mafioso protection racket.
If America fails to preserve Ukraine, other countries are going to rationally conclude that the only sure security lies in the possession of nuclear weapons and the means to deliver them. The bar for their development is far lower than it was 70 years ago; we have already seen Israel and North Korea succeed with relatively slender resources, and Iran is now almost a foregone conclusion. The NPT will start to unravel once arming looks like a safer option than non-proliferation; slowly at first, fast in the end. It is a positive feedback process, as each new member of the club increases the pressure on others to join, just as the arming of China provoked that of India and the arming of India provoked that of Pakistan.
This is your last, best chance to avoid nuclear catastrophe; don't fuck it up.
Yes it has. But that is no reason not to fight a delaying action. So far the unraveling has been slow, and in the cases of South Africa and Libya, actually reversed. Perhaps, in time, more opportunities will arise; and if not, the time gained is valuable in itself.
With respect, your views on Ukraine are ... unsound, and not only because America is not actually a principal in the Russia-Ukraine war (you can tell from the name!)
The attack on Ukraine is an existential threat to America. The problem with guaranteeing Ukraine's security is that you (and Russia, and the UK) have already made that guarantee but have not made good on it. This undermines the general belief that America has the ability and the will to maintain the global order. We have already seen historic changes of sentiment in Finland, Sweden, and Germany, but that is just the beginning. Once Trump returns to office, how much credibility will NATO retain? Remember, his dream was to run it like a mafioso protection racket.
If America fails to preserve Ukraine, other countries are going to rationally conclude that the only sure security lies in the possession of nuclear weapons and the means to deliver them. The bar for their development is far lower than it was 70 years ago; we have already seen Israel and North Korea succeed with relatively slender resources, and Iran is now almost a foregone conclusion. The NPT will start to unravel once arming looks like a safer option than non-proliferation; slowly at first, fast in the end. It is a positive feedback process, as each new member of the club increases the pressure on others to join, just as the arming of China provoked that of India and the arming of India provoked that of Pakistan.
This is your last, best chance to avoid nuclear catastrophe; don't fuck it up.
So what do you think should be done? The NPT has already unraveled...
Yes it has. But that is no reason not to fight a delaying action. So far the unraveling has been slow, and in the cases of South Africa and Libya, actually reversed. Perhaps, in time, more opportunities will arise; and if not, the time gained is valuable in itself.
Indeed. We must imagine Sisyphus happy...
But what does "must" mean here? It is a word with many shades of meaning...
In this case, I take the imperative to apply to optimism of the will. But I concede that other interpretations would fit.
As opposed to imposed by the logic of the universe...