War-Is-Interested-in-You Watch... This is way out of my lane, and way above my pay grad. However, I do feel I should say something. But maybe I should just shut up...
You have a duty to speak up Brad, and I am glad that you have. I miss the liberal global consensus achieved after WWII, at least in the West, that gave us the Universal Declaration of Human Rights. There are things of great importance that we can and should agree on. There are some acts so shocking that a clear statement of condemnation must be made.
I had high hopes for the world in 1989. I believed that we were on a path to finally escape the brutality, enmity, and divisions that you outlined, in your own way, in your book. There is so much room for consensus there.
Instead, we have exchanged Bellamy for Hobbes. The narcissism of minor differences ends where it always must, with the slaughter of innocents. Who among us could have imagined 24 years ago a land war in Europe, with industrial slaughter that is too inhuman to differentiate between combatants and civilians?
I do not need to be in lockstep with your analysis. That is the Freudian trap of focusing on minor differences. We have consensus on the really important part. Thank you for speaking up.
My feeling about Israel/Palestine are that the extremists on both sides have a symbiotic relationship. Each achieves their policy preferences by outraging the other side. I had not known about Netanyahu's implicit subsidy to Hamas. How idiotic is supporting an eliminationist organization for short run political advantage?
Palestine? I believe in the power of Math. Where at my best, I wasn't more than B-student <back then>... Justice seems to be a casualty in the greater middle east <especially Palestine> there revenge seems to equate with honor. With the real on the ground circumstances likely worse than I can imagine
IMHO, here in the land of the free and home of the brave - our Justice system<not the 5-shot peacemaker kind> is under assult. Even so, POTUS, State Department and DOD are signaling we stand with Isreal. It my prayer, they can prevail for Justice, refraining from vengefulness
From what I have read, Israel has been both supporting Hamas (to offset Fatah as you say) and ignoring requests to negotiate the conditions of life in Gaza: which are miserable. From this perspective, it was proposed, Hamas wanted to "hurt" Israel, knowing full well that its troops would all be lost and the Israel would rain destruction on civilians in Gaza. The Hamas calculation is that this will weaken Israel's support from other Arab countries. Hamas will survive and begin planning the next surprise.
I understand the Fallujah analogy but I doubt it holds here. I think the purpose of the ultimatum directed at Palestinian civilians is to get some (all would be really good given what’s coming) out of the way before the IDF moves in on the ground. Israel probably intends to make much heavier use of the fires they have available than the US did in Fallujah. Realistically this will destroy Gaza City completely.
The IDF will move forward but primarily to fix Hamas fighters in place until artillery or bombs can demolish their positions. If civilians aren’t out of the way casualties will be catastrophic. I think the Israeli government is aware that fighting in any other way will lead to more IDF casualties than they’re willing to bear.
I believe that a better analogy will be the Battle of Berlin, if one imagines a Soviet army that is far more casualty averse but also has far better access to large bombs and accurate artillery that can quickly destroy any strong point they encounter.
This method of fighting will require less planning than Fallujah required, in way. All they have to do is make sure the ordnance is ready to go. I think it is a different kind of urban warfare than we have seen recently, (Grozny maybe?) and whatever we think will happen now it will probably be worse.
In the best of all possible worlds Israel would conquer Gaza just as the Allies conquered Germany in WWII. The Israelis would root out Hamas and hang war criminals just as the Allies did in Germany. Israel and the UN would then work to build back Gaza as a free, independent, and prosperous Arab state. In the real world that's not got to happen. To use Donald Trump's racist but accurate term, Gaza is a shithole. Half the population is under 18. (Arabs clearly don’t believe in birth control.) I suspect 90% of the population is poor by western standards. There is no way to turn Gaza into a state like the UAE, or a Singapore on the Mediterranean. Nor does Egypt have any interest in annexing Gaza and administering it. (Egypt won't even admit Gazan refugees fleeing the war.) The two million people in Gaza are just pawns: a fact on the ground that the Arabs can use to blame Israel for the "occupation," poverty, backwardness, etc. As in the past Israel will win the battle, but unfortunately this is just another “forever” war.
Brad, could you share a link where I could learn more about this? “having spent decades strengthening Hamas as a counterweight to Fatah, Netanyahu and his coalition believe that they must do something or their political careers are over. “
Revenge is a political strategy, not a military one. And Netanyhu will sacrifice everyone and everything for his political survival. Israel is rich country, but a small country; there isn't nearly as much ruin to draw on as for the US. I fear their decision to let Netanyhu stay until after the war will be an expensive mistake.
All excellent points and all completely irrelevant. If foreign policy is as much about domestic politics if not more than it is about implementing wise & effective policy, no Israeli govt could sit passively for long after last Saturday. As for how well prepared the IDF is for attacking a city, we'll soon find out. To be sure, it's always avoided doing so, stopping short of Cairo, Damascus, & Beirut. Then again, it's always been unexpectedly successful, beginning in 1948.
You have a duty to speak up Brad, and I am glad that you have. I miss the liberal global consensus achieved after WWII, at least in the West, that gave us the Universal Declaration of Human Rights. There are things of great importance that we can and should agree on. There are some acts so shocking that a clear statement of condemnation must be made.
I had high hopes for the world in 1989. I believed that we were on a path to finally escape the brutality, enmity, and divisions that you outlined, in your own way, in your book. There is so much room for consensus there.
Instead, we have exchanged Bellamy for Hobbes. The narcissism of minor differences ends where it always must, with the slaughter of innocents. Who among us could have imagined 24 years ago a land war in Europe, with industrial slaughter that is too inhuman to differentiate between combatants and civilians?
I do not need to be in lockstep with your analysis. That is the Freudian trap of focusing on minor differences. We have consensus on the really important part. Thank you for speaking up.
My feeling about Israel/Palestine are that the extremists on both sides have a symbiotic relationship. Each achieves their policy preferences by outraging the other side. I had not known about Netanyahu's implicit subsidy to Hamas. How idiotic is supporting an eliminationist organization for short run political advantage?
Palestine? I believe in the power of Math. Where at my best, I wasn't more than B-student <back then>... Justice seems to be a casualty in the greater middle east <especially Palestine> there revenge seems to equate with honor. With the real on the ground circumstances likely worse than I can imagine
IMHO, here in the land of the free and home of the brave - our Justice system<not the 5-shot peacemaker kind> is under assult. Even so, POTUS, State Department and DOD are signaling we stand with Isreal. It my prayer, they can prevail for Justice, refraining from vengefulness
From what I have read, Israel has been both supporting Hamas (to offset Fatah as you say) and ignoring requests to negotiate the conditions of life in Gaza: which are miserable. From this perspective, it was proposed, Hamas wanted to "hurt" Israel, knowing full well that its troops would all be lost and the Israel would rain destruction on civilians in Gaza. The Hamas calculation is that this will weaken Israel's support from other Arab countries. Hamas will survive and begin planning the next surprise.
I understand the Fallujah analogy but I doubt it holds here. I think the purpose of the ultimatum directed at Palestinian civilians is to get some (all would be really good given what’s coming) out of the way before the IDF moves in on the ground. Israel probably intends to make much heavier use of the fires they have available than the US did in Fallujah. Realistically this will destroy Gaza City completely.
The IDF will move forward but primarily to fix Hamas fighters in place until artillery or bombs can demolish their positions. If civilians aren’t out of the way casualties will be catastrophic. I think the Israeli government is aware that fighting in any other way will lead to more IDF casualties than they’re willing to bear.
I believe that a better analogy will be the Battle of Berlin, if one imagines a Soviet army that is far more casualty averse but also has far better access to large bombs and accurate artillery that can quickly destroy any strong point they encounter.
This method of fighting will require less planning than Fallujah required, in way. All they have to do is make sure the ordnance is ready to go. I think it is a different kind of urban warfare than we have seen recently, (Grozny maybe?) and whatever we think will happen now it will probably be worse.
The Onion also has a statement on the subject.
https://www.theonion.com/the-onion-stands-with-israel-because-it-seems-like-yo-1850922505
In the best of all possible worlds Israel would conquer Gaza just as the Allies conquered Germany in WWII. The Israelis would root out Hamas and hang war criminals just as the Allies did in Germany. Israel and the UN would then work to build back Gaza as a free, independent, and prosperous Arab state. In the real world that's not got to happen. To use Donald Trump's racist but accurate term, Gaza is a shithole. Half the population is under 18. (Arabs clearly don’t believe in birth control.) I suspect 90% of the population is poor by western standards. There is no way to turn Gaza into a state like the UAE, or a Singapore on the Mediterranean. Nor does Egypt have any interest in annexing Gaza and administering it. (Egypt won't even admit Gazan refugees fleeing the war.) The two million people in Gaza are just pawns: a fact on the ground that the Arabs can use to blame Israel for the "occupation," poverty, backwardness, etc. As in the past Israel will win the battle, but unfortunately this is just another “forever” war.
Brad, could you share a link where I could learn more about this? “having spent decades strengthening Hamas as a counterweight to Fatah, Netanyahu and his coalition believe that they must do something or their political careers are over. “
Revenge is a political strategy, not a military one. And Netanyhu will sacrifice everyone and everything for his political survival. Israel is rich country, but a small country; there isn't nearly as much ruin to draw on as for the US. I fear their decision to let Netanyhu stay until after the war will be an expensive mistake.
All excellent points and all completely irrelevant. If foreign policy is as much about domestic politics if not more than it is about implementing wise & effective policy, no Israeli govt could sit passively for long after last Saturday. As for how well prepared the IDF is for attacking a city, we'll soon find out. To be sure, it's always avoided doing so, stopping short of Cairo, Damascus, & Beirut. Then again, it's always been unexpectedly successful, beginning in 1948.