I find that I really cannot believe them. Indeed, I am wondering if how many of them are the same people as those who were the crypto hype-grift artists last year...
Part of your skepticism proceeds from your training as an economic historian. That makes us aware that in every speculative bubble there are those who claim that new conditions change everything and old rules no longer apply. In the era of modern economic growth, they are correct, occasionally. But misses outnumber hits by a large ratio. You are exhibiting more than normal human tolerance for the hype surrounding CHAT-GPT but your level of skepticism is entirely justified.
Did Brad DeLong write a book called Slouching Towards Utopia?
Yes, Brad DeLong wrote a book called Slouching Towards Utopia: An Economic History of the Twentieth Century. It was published in 2022 by Basic Books. The book tells the story of how the world's economy changed dramatically in the 20th century, and how those changes have affected our lives today. DeLong argues that the 20th century was a time of great progress, but that it also left us with some serious challenges. He concludes by arguing that we need to continue to work towards a more just and equitable world.
Here are some reviews of the book:
"A sweeping and ambitious history of the twentieth century that is both intellectually stimulating and deeply moving." - The New York Times Book Review
"A masterful work of scholarship that is also a compelling and engaging read." - The Washington Post
"A must-read for anyone who wants to understand the world we live in today." - The Economist
profile picture
What is the hexapodia podcast?
The Hexapodia podcast is a weekly podcast hosted by Noah Smith and Brad DeLong, two economists who write for the Substack newsletter "Grasping Reality with Both Hands." The podcast covers a wide range of topics related to economics, finance, and political economy. Smith and DeLong are both known for their clear and accessible writing, and their podcast is a great way to stay up-to-date on the latest economic news and ideas.
The name "Hexapodia" comes from a reference to a fictional creature with six limbs. Smith and DeLong use the name to represent their belief that there are many different ways to think about economics, and that no one approach has all the answers. They want to create a space where people can come together to discuss different ideas and perspectives.
The Hexapodia podcast is available on a variety of platforms, including Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and Stitcher. You can also listen to the podcast on the Grasping Reality website.
profile picture
Who is Noah Smith?
Noah Smith is a blogger, journalist, and commentator on economics and current events. He is the author of the Substack newsletter "Noahpinion" and the co-host of the Hexapodia podcast. Smith has a PhD in economics from the University of Michigan and previously taught at Stony Brook University. He is a frequent contributor to The New York Times, The Washington Post, and other publications.
Smith is known for his clear and accessible writing, and his work has been praised by economists and journalists alike. He is a frequent critic of economic orthodoxy, and he is always looking for new ways to think about the economy. Smith is a passionate advocate for economic progress, and he believes that economics can be used to make the world a better place.
profile picture
What has the rate of technological progress been since the start of the long twentieth century in 1870?
The rate of technological progress has accelerated significantly since the start of the long twentieth century in 1870. This is due to a number of factors, including:
The rise of science and engineering as professional disciplines.
The increasing availability of funding for research and development.
The growth of the global economy, which has created a larger market for new technologies.
The development of new technologies that have made it easier to create and distribute new ideas.
As a result of these factors, the rate of technological progress has been much faster in the long twentieth century than in any previous period in human history. This has led to a number of important changes, including:
Improved standards of living for people around the world.
Longer life expectancies.
Increased access to education and healthcare.
The development of new industries and jobs.
The rise of new forms of communication and transportation.
The acceleration of technological progress has had a profound impact on the world, and it is likely to continue to do so in the years to come. It is important to understand the factors that have contributed to this acceleration, as well as the potential benefits and risks that it poses.
profile picture
When does Brad DeLong believe that the world was in the Late-Antiquity Pause?
Brad DeLong believes that the world was in the Late-Antiquity Pause from the 2nd century AD to the 18th century AD. This period was characterized by a lack of technological progress and economic growth. DeLong argues that there are a number of factors that contributed to the Late-Antiquity Pause, including:
The collapse of the Roman Empire
The rise of Islam
The Black Death
The Little Ice Age
DeLong believes that the Late-Antiquity Pause ended in the 18th century AD with the Industrial Revolution. The Industrial Revolution was a period of rapid technological progress and economic growth that led to the modern world.
DeLong's argument about the Late-Antiquity Pause is controversial. Some historians argue that there was still technological progress during this period, but that it was not as rapid as it was in the 18th century AD. Others argue that the Late-Antiquity Pause was not a global phenomenon, and that there were still some areas of the world that experienced technological progress and economic growth.
Despite the controversy, DeLong's argument about the Late-Antiquity Pause has been influential in the field of economic history. It has helped to explain why the world experienced such a long period of stagnation after the fall of the Roman Empire. It has also helped to explain why the Industrial Revolution was such a dramatic break from the past.
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What are the principal characteristics of a Malthusian economy?
View other drafts
A Malthusian economy is an economy in which population growth is limited by the available food supply. This means that as the population grows, the amount of food available per person decreases. This can lead to a number of problems, including:
Hunger and malnutrition
Poverty
Disease
War
The Malthusian theory of population was developed by Thomas Malthus in the late 18th century. Malthus argued that the human population has a natural tendency to grow exponentially, while the food supply can only grow arithmetically. This means that the population will eventually outstrip the food supply, leading to widespread poverty and starvation.
Malthus's theory was controversial in its time, and it is still debated today. However, it is clear that population growth can have a significant impact on the economy. In order to avoid the problems associated with Malthusian economics, it is important to find ways to increase the food supply and to slow down population growth.
Here are some of the principal characteristics of a Malthusian economy:
Population growth is limited by the available food supply.
The amount of food available per person decreases as the population grows.
This can lead to a number of problems, including hunger, malnutrition, poverty, disease, and war.
Malthusian economics is controversial, but it is clear that population growth can have a significant impact on the economy.
It is important to find ways to increase the food supply and to slow down population growth in order to avoid the problems associated with Malthusian economics.
Yes, the developers monitor articles, blogs and social media and insert ad hoc kludges to fix things. It usually takes about a week or two. That's how long it took for ChatGPT to get the sex of the first female president right after Rodney Brooks reported that it had problems doing so. I'm guessing that the developers simply tweak the "superego", the component that filters requests to and responses by the actual LLM rather than tweaking the training set or the LLM itself.
From comments at Ars Technica, I gather that these models have a plug in architecture to add features like a calculator. This lets the system recognize a request for mathematical results and avoid embarrassing things like 2+2=5. In this sense, they are a lot like the existing voice systems with an ability to for humans to program them to recognize certain types of requests and handle them specially. It's also used to catch racist or criminal requests and responses and produce the appropriate boilerplate.
In some ways it's like the early days of online mapping where entire cities would be ignored and the systems would hallucinate roads that never existed. There were mechanisms for reporting these problems - for example, I told Apple Maps that there was a city named Dayton in Washington State though I didn't mention that it is home to the Jolly Green Giant. The big difference is that crowd sourcing the mapping effort was done out in the open and there was a recognizable ground truth. To maintain the AI mystique, developers are trying to keep this process under wraps, and there isn't really a recognizable end point.
The capabilities of chatgpt is not as interesting as how many problems have been solved unexpectedly by scale. Check out figure 2 in this Bowman paper for some examples. We throw scale at text and got someone who can usefully summarize text and explain problem solving steps what happens with 10x more text and 100x more compute? No one knows!
how do we *really* know you wrote Slouching? Maybe it's just a chord progression based on Polanyi and Ed Sheeran and Noah Smith co-wrote it with ChatGPT?
Part of your skepticism proceeds from your training as an economic historian. That makes us aware that in every speculative bubble there are those who claim that new conditions change everything and old rules no longer apply. In the era of modern economic growth, they are correct, occasionally. But misses outnumber hits by a large ratio. You are exhibiting more than normal human tolerance for the hype surrounding CHAT-GPT but your level of skepticism is entirely justified.
Bard's responses:
Did Brad DeLong write a book called Slouching Towards Utopia?
Yes, Brad DeLong wrote a book called Slouching Towards Utopia: An Economic History of the Twentieth Century. It was published in 2022 by Basic Books. The book tells the story of how the world's economy changed dramatically in the 20th century, and how those changes have affected our lives today. DeLong argues that the 20th century was a time of great progress, but that it also left us with some serious challenges. He concludes by arguing that we need to continue to work towards a more just and equitable world.
Here are some reviews of the book:
"A sweeping and ambitious history of the twentieth century that is both intellectually stimulating and deeply moving." - The New York Times Book Review
"A masterful work of scholarship that is also a compelling and engaging read." - The Washington Post
"A must-read for anyone who wants to understand the world we live in today." - The Economist
profile picture
What is the hexapodia podcast?
The Hexapodia podcast is a weekly podcast hosted by Noah Smith and Brad DeLong, two economists who write for the Substack newsletter "Grasping Reality with Both Hands." The podcast covers a wide range of topics related to economics, finance, and political economy. Smith and DeLong are both known for their clear and accessible writing, and their podcast is a great way to stay up-to-date on the latest economic news and ideas.
The name "Hexapodia" comes from a reference to a fictional creature with six limbs. Smith and DeLong use the name to represent their belief that there are many different ways to think about economics, and that no one approach has all the answers. They want to create a space where people can come together to discuss different ideas and perspectives.
The Hexapodia podcast is available on a variety of platforms, including Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and Stitcher. You can also listen to the podcast on the Grasping Reality website.
profile picture
Who is Noah Smith?
Noah Smith is a blogger, journalist, and commentator on economics and current events. He is the author of the Substack newsletter "Noahpinion" and the co-host of the Hexapodia podcast. Smith has a PhD in economics from the University of Michigan and previously taught at Stony Brook University. He is a frequent contributor to The New York Times, The Washington Post, and other publications.
Smith is known for his clear and accessible writing, and his work has been praised by economists and journalists alike. He is a frequent critic of economic orthodoxy, and he is always looking for new ways to think about the economy. Smith is a passionate advocate for economic progress, and he believes that economics can be used to make the world a better place.
profile picture
What has the rate of technological progress been since the start of the long twentieth century in 1870?
The rate of technological progress has accelerated significantly since the start of the long twentieth century in 1870. This is due to a number of factors, including:
The rise of science and engineering as professional disciplines.
The increasing availability of funding for research and development.
The growth of the global economy, which has created a larger market for new technologies.
The development of new technologies that have made it easier to create and distribute new ideas.
As a result of these factors, the rate of technological progress has been much faster in the long twentieth century than in any previous period in human history. This has led to a number of important changes, including:
Improved standards of living for people around the world.
Longer life expectancies.
Increased access to education and healthcare.
The development of new industries and jobs.
The rise of new forms of communication and transportation.
The acceleration of technological progress has had a profound impact on the world, and it is likely to continue to do so in the years to come. It is important to understand the factors that have contributed to this acceleration, as well as the potential benefits and risks that it poses.
profile picture
When does Brad DeLong believe that the world was in the Late-Antiquity Pause?
Brad DeLong believes that the world was in the Late-Antiquity Pause from the 2nd century AD to the 18th century AD. This period was characterized by a lack of technological progress and economic growth. DeLong argues that there are a number of factors that contributed to the Late-Antiquity Pause, including:
The collapse of the Roman Empire
The rise of Islam
The Black Death
The Little Ice Age
DeLong believes that the Late-Antiquity Pause ended in the 18th century AD with the Industrial Revolution. The Industrial Revolution was a period of rapid technological progress and economic growth that led to the modern world.
DeLong's argument about the Late-Antiquity Pause is controversial. Some historians argue that there was still technological progress during this period, but that it was not as rapid as it was in the 18th century AD. Others argue that the Late-Antiquity Pause was not a global phenomenon, and that there were still some areas of the world that experienced technological progress and economic growth.
Despite the controversy, DeLong's argument about the Late-Antiquity Pause has been influential in the field of economic history. It has helped to explain why the world experienced such a long period of stagnation after the fall of the Roman Empire. It has also helped to explain why the Industrial Revolution was such a dramatic break from the past.
profile picture
What are the principal characteristics of a Malthusian economy?
View other drafts
A Malthusian economy is an economy in which population growth is limited by the available food supply. This means that as the population grows, the amount of food available per person decreases. This can lead to a number of problems, including:
Hunger and malnutrition
Poverty
Disease
War
The Malthusian theory of population was developed by Thomas Malthus in the late 18th century. Malthus argued that the human population has a natural tendency to grow exponentially, while the food supply can only grow arithmetically. This means that the population will eventually outstrip the food supply, leading to widespread poverty and starvation.
Malthus's theory was controversial in its time, and it is still debated today. However, it is clear that population growth can have a significant impact on the economy. In order to avoid the problems associated with Malthusian economics, it is important to find ways to increase the food supply and to slow down population growth.
Here are some of the principal characteristics of a Malthusian economy:
Population growth is limited by the available food supply.
The amount of food available per person decreases as the population grows.
This can lead to a number of problems, including hunger, malnutrition, poverty, disease, and war.
Malthusian economics is controversial, but it is clear that population growth can have a significant impact on the economy.
It is important to find ways to increase the food supply and to slow down population growth in order to avoid the problems associated with Malthusian economics.
Yes, the developers monitor articles, blogs and social media and insert ad hoc kludges to fix things. It usually takes about a week or two. That's how long it took for ChatGPT to get the sex of the first female president right after Rodney Brooks reported that it had problems doing so. I'm guessing that the developers simply tweak the "superego", the component that filters requests to and responses by the actual LLM rather than tweaking the training set or the LLM itself.
From comments at Ars Technica, I gather that these models have a plug in architecture to add features like a calculator. This lets the system recognize a request for mathematical results and avoid embarrassing things like 2+2=5. In this sense, they are a lot like the existing voice systems with an ability to for humans to program them to recognize certain types of requests and handle them specially. It's also used to catch racist or criminal requests and responses and produce the appropriate boilerplate.
In some ways it's like the early days of online mapping where entire cities would be ignored and the systems would hallucinate roads that never existed. There were mechanisms for reporting these problems - for example, I told Apple Maps that there was a city named Dayton in Washington State though I didn't mention that it is home to the Jolly Green Giant. The big difference is that crowd sourcing the mapping effort was done out in the open and there was a recognizable ground truth. To maintain the AI mystique, developers are trying to keep this process under wraps, and there isn't really a recognizable end point.
The capabilities of chatgpt is not as interesting as how many problems have been solved unexpectedly by scale. Check out figure 2 in this Bowman paper for some examples. We throw scale at text and got someone who can usefully summarize text and explain problem solving steps what happens with 10x more text and 100x more compute? No one knows!
https://arxiv.org/pdf/2304.00612.pdf
Common People https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yuTMWgOduFM
how do we *really* know you wrote Slouching? Maybe it's just a chord progression based on Polanyi and Ed Sheeran and Noah Smith co-wrote it with ChatGPT?