12 Comments
Sep 18, 2023·edited Sep 18, 2023

The one slide in here that I find perhaps less useful than an alternative measure: For housing, you specifically have chosen "new single family homes sold". It seems clear that in fact we _should not_ be building (and then selling) so many SFHs as we used to, because there is very little undeveloped land for new SFHs in the places where we ought to be building homes (e.g. the city of San Francisco and the inner-ring suburbs of same). So you really should be measuring total production of new housing square footage, or "units", or bedrooms, or _something_ like that. (I always find "unit count" kind of annoying because it doesn't distinguish between a studio and a 3BR family apartment.)

My understanding is that production of units is up, although not by nearly enough yet.

Expand full comment

When will there be transcripts/the papers that were delivered. It's not fair that I can only take pot shots at Brad for what HE puts up. He's not even a good target, hardly wrong enough to bother.

Expand full comment

Surprise inflation" It took the Fed by surprise, too. The policy issue is when should the Fed have started raising interest rates? At least in hindsight it seems that September 2021 when TIPS finally reached and began to exceed the target looks right to me.

Expand full comment

Rubber on the road. If this means. is the outcome of the Powell Fed 2021022 better than the Bernanke Fed 2009-10 (you only get to chose one!), yes of course. But that is an incredibly low bar. It's better to accelerate to highway speed w/o leaving ANY rubber on the road.

Expand full comment

Saw it online. Useful discussion. Learnt some new things. Thanks to the panel. Justin's analogy for wage bargaining/conflict theory was funny.

Expand full comment

A crash without casualties will look almost indistinguishable from a soft landing.

A "soft landing" is only confirmed when the economy takes off again.

If we did indeed land softly, it's not in the softness of data but in the health and robustness of the data in the next economic boom.

Expand full comment

Darn! I wish you had advertised this earlier; I would've driven. Will see online.

Expand full comment