BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2022-06-22 We: If I were Marc Andreesen, I would say this: "You, Tyler Cowen, are an example of a person doing a podcast. You are comfortable enough, with several sources of income, and do not care much about monetizing your podcast in a serious way. But in that you are anonymous. Most of the people who in a good future would be making podcasts and so adding value, knowledge, and entertainment to the world will not do so unless they can monetize it in some way. At the moment we are split into two intermets. The first is a "Web1" Internet, in which the expectation is for free and so people are strongly resistant to making micro payments and so nobody makes any money. The second is a “Web2” internet, in which big companies have figured out how to do some monetization, and have capitalized on this to create walled gardens—thus greatly disrupting the scope and reach of the network—in which they grab the lion’s share of the money for themselves, thus restricting the number of those who can afford to create: the Facebooks, Googles, Apples, and so forth. Podcasting is, if things continue as they have, headed for a future in which some get sucked into the walled gardens, in which those podcasters who hit the celebrity-reinforcement loop get rich, in which “Web2” companies profit enormously, and in which a very large chunk of those who in a good world would be members of the long tail making a reasonable living have to drop out, and only those truly driven to communicate or with alternate comfortable means have the freedom to be able to afford to podcast. We “Web3” people want a different future for podcasting. And at the heart of that will be a web of identity and network connections and trusted payments that is not the property of any single walled-garden entity that is a wannabee monopolist, but is the common creation of the community as a whole." That is what I would say if I were Marc Andreessen in the video below.What does this vision of “Web3” that I think Marc Andreessen should have laid out in his conversation with Tyler Cowen tell us about the proper value of BitCoin today? It says: the proper value of BitCoin today is zero. Ownership of BitCoin today gives you no property rights over the useful BlockChain databases that will underpin the community-owned web of identity and network connections and trusted payments that is the heart of the good Web3 future. Indeed, to imagine that you will be able to grab huge amounts of money from the l BlockChain databases that will underpin the community-owned web of identity and network connections and trusted payments in the good Web3 future is to make a category mistake: it is Web2 thinking. Nothing will give you property rights over the useful BlockChain databases that will underpin the community-owned web of identity and network connections and trusted payments that is the heart of the good Web3 future. If something would, than it would not be the good Web3 future. Yes, this poses “challenges” for Andreessen-Horwitz’s crypto-Web3 business model. Perhaps that is why he did not say it…
"That social power should be in the hands of those who have the wealth, however acquired; and that those who have the wealth are also of the rightful controllers via their lobbying in their megaphones of our collective efforts to shape the distribution of wealth—that has got to be an even weirder doctrine than the doctrine of the Divine Right of Kings, or the doctrine that the descendants of those who conquered Gaul with Clovis are the natural ruling class:"
This did not seem so crazy in the "Glorious Years." Trickle down is not so bad as long as there is enough being poured in at the top. Democrats made sure there was a trickle and Republicans made sure that enough went in at the top. But then came the realization that if you slowed down the trickle. more styed on top as a reward for pouring. [And then that suffiently regressive, tax cuts -- the "Tax Cuts for the Rich and Deficits Act of 2017" being the epitome, so far -- could make income trickle up!]
BTW the descendants of Rolo, never agreed about that for France, although they were perfectly happy to apply it, mutatis mutandis, in Britain.
Wow, I really liked that. We look for a version of the web which has trusted identities and trusted microtransactions. We can have that version without blockchain, by instead relying on authorities - authorities such as ICANN.
This perhaps looks like silos, but it doesn't have to be. The Fed could offer a "trusted identity" service. So could lots of other "trusted" institutions. Relying on the blockchain is relying on something that is inherently slow and potentially unstable. Blockchains can <em>and have</em> split rather than recognize certain transactions. Blockchains are "democratic" in the sense that there is voting, but that's not a "one-person one-vote" system. That's a "one-computer one-vote" system. This is not a good way to support trusted identity.
We already have certificate authorities for websites. We know how to do this. Microtransactions in existing currencies are also a known technology. Thing is, bigwigs can't make lots of money doing it, so it isn't going to happen quickly.
The Cown/Andreessen podcast was pretty much unlistenable for me once Andreessen started going off and speaking too fast for we ordinary mortals to comprehend. I did read the transcript that Tyler Cowen later posted and find the argument unconvincing. I'm pretty much retired other than a couple of volunteer jobs and an occasional consulting gig. I regularly listen to podcasts when I am out walking, cooking, and driving on various errands. Maybe I 10-15 hours a week listening to various podcast; I do not know whether this is a typical listening amount. Google tells me there are 2M podcasters putting out content. I listen to about 15 podcasts which as you can see is a very small number out of the podcast universe. Some of these are monetized by paying through Substack while others unlock features from a Patreon donation. NPR stuff is free.
Andreessen says that Web3 will unlock all this creative energy that is currently either pent up or cannot be monetized. I disagree. I'm not about to increase my podcast listening as I would not be able to read Professor DeLong's forthcoming book (already pre-ordered). I also enjoy six other Substacks in addition to this one and of course those are already monetized.
Now Andreessen is a smart guy but even smart guys are brought down by their own hubris. I know that his firm has made a lot of crypto investments but again this is at present just a speculative toy that is causing a lot of suffering for those who can't recognize the next coming of tulip mania.
If Web3 were the potential next big thing don't you think Amazon, Google, or Microsoft would be capturing this?
Pretty sure you meant Andreessen to tell Tyler Cowen he's "anomalous" (true) rather than "anonymous" (not if he can help it)
"That social power should be in the hands of those who have the wealth, however acquired; and that those who have the wealth are also of the rightful controllers via their lobbying in their megaphones of our collective efforts to shape the distribution of wealth—that has got to be an even weirder doctrine than the doctrine of the Divine Right of Kings, or the doctrine that the descendants of those who conquered Gaul with Clovis are the natural ruling class:"
This did not seem so crazy in the "Glorious Years." Trickle down is not so bad as long as there is enough being poured in at the top. Democrats made sure there was a trickle and Republicans made sure that enough went in at the top. But then came the realization that if you slowed down the trickle. more styed on top as a reward for pouring. [And then that suffiently regressive, tax cuts -- the "Tax Cuts for the Rich and Deficits Act of 2017" being the epitome, so far -- could make income trickle up!]
BTW the descendants of Rolo, never agreed about that for France, although they were perfectly happy to apply it, mutatis mutandis, in Britain.
Wow, I really liked that. We look for a version of the web which has trusted identities and trusted microtransactions. We can have that version without blockchain, by instead relying on authorities - authorities such as ICANN.
This perhaps looks like silos, but it doesn't have to be. The Fed could offer a "trusted identity" service. So could lots of other "trusted" institutions. Relying on the blockchain is relying on something that is inherently slow and potentially unstable. Blockchains can <em>and have</em> split rather than recognize certain transactions. Blockchains are "democratic" in the sense that there is voting, but that's not a "one-person one-vote" system. That's a "one-computer one-vote" system. This is not a good way to support trusted identity.
We already have certificate authorities for websites. We know how to do this. Microtransactions in existing currencies are also a known technology. Thing is, bigwigs can't make lots of money doing it, so it isn't going to happen quickly.
Was contemplating Web3 and the late lamented Gift Economy.
Web3. The only thing worth doing is something done for money.
Jesus said the only thing worth doing was to do what would get you a ticket to heaven.
The Cown/Andreessen podcast was pretty much unlistenable for me once Andreessen started going off and speaking too fast for we ordinary mortals to comprehend. I did read the transcript that Tyler Cowen later posted and find the argument unconvincing. I'm pretty much retired other than a couple of volunteer jobs and an occasional consulting gig. I regularly listen to podcasts when I am out walking, cooking, and driving on various errands. Maybe I 10-15 hours a week listening to various podcast; I do not know whether this is a typical listening amount. Google tells me there are 2M podcasters putting out content. I listen to about 15 podcasts which as you can see is a very small number out of the podcast universe. Some of these are monetized by paying through Substack while others unlock features from a Patreon donation. NPR stuff is free.
Andreessen says that Web3 will unlock all this creative energy that is currently either pent up or cannot be monetized. I disagree. I'm not about to increase my podcast listening as I would not be able to read Professor DeLong's forthcoming book (already pre-ordered). I also enjoy six other Substacks in addition to this one and of course those are already monetized.
Now Andreessen is a smart guy but even smart guys are brought down by their own hubris. I know that his firm has made a lot of crypto investments but again this is at present just a speculative toy that is causing a lot of suffering for those who can't recognize the next coming of tulip mania.
If Web3 were the potential next big thing don't you think Amazon, Google, or Microsoft would be capturing this?