I have to confess, I do not see where the upward swing in long Treasury yields is coming from. But then I did not see where it was coming from early last fall either. I get that a lot of rich...
I see Apple doing a large stock buyback, IMO a combo optional cap-gains-rate dividend or reverse stock split, investors’ choice, in terms of Apple’s balance sheet
Plus raising the ordinary dividend to 25¢/qtr, something like 0.55% yield (🤯)
(Meanwhile Krugman notes a rising rate of investment in TT, tho I fret over FRED showing an even faster rate of investments in IP, which smells more like rent)
These buybacks and dividends surely go to wealthy people who can recycle the cash by letting VCs fund private equity—new investment!
Or they’ll happily lend their cash to govt at high rates to forestall a funding squeeze that’d encourage rising high-bracket tax rates, an explicitly political choice, one I criticize on equity rather than macro grounds
So high rates don’t seem to be squeezing out investment capital. The crime seems not that corps are not investing, but that the Fed and the govt continue to tilt the playing field to the wealthiest
Especially good — clear, well reasoned, well supported with data. Now if only more people would pay attention...
I see Apple doing a large stock buyback, IMO a combo optional cap-gains-rate dividend or reverse stock split, investors’ choice, in terms of Apple’s balance sheet
Plus raising the ordinary dividend to 25¢/qtr, something like 0.55% yield (🤯)
(Meanwhile Krugman notes a rising rate of investment in TT, tho I fret over FRED showing an even faster rate of investments in IP, which smells more like rent)
These buybacks and dividends surely go to wealthy people who can recycle the cash by letting VCs fund private equity—new investment!
Or they’ll happily lend their cash to govt at high rates to forestall a funding squeeze that’d encourage rising high-bracket tax rates, an explicitly political choice, one I criticize on equity rather than macro grounds
So high rates don’t seem to be squeezing out investment capital. The crime seems not that corps are not investing, but that the Fed and the govt continue to tilt the playing field to the wealthiest
Random thoughts:
PCE/CPY gap ~ .35% not .5
Reiterate complaint about only unit value comparisons, not proper wage indices.
Approval for downplaying the importance of goods/wage relative prices cf goods/goods
Note TIPS 5 = TIPS 10 = PCE target +.35 on 2024 05 03
Reiterate complaint about lack of short tenor TIPS.
https://thomaslhutcheson.substack.com/p/improvements-in-macroeconomic-data