Is the best analogy to the chaos-monkey international trade politics Trump has embarked upon the example of BREXIT? And, if so, what does that tell us?...
So far, most of the economic effects appear to have been zilch because nothing has actually happened.
Trump I made tariff threats against Mexico, demanded some token stuff, got the token stuff. Trump II demanded Mexico rush troops to the border to stop fentanyl crossing the border, Mexico said they sent troops to the border (they already had 10k troops there and have had that for awhile), then Trump declared victory. As near as I can tell, no Mexican troops went anywhere, and no tariffs were implemented.
Net trade effect ZILCH. Excepting finance market uncertainty and manufacturer uncertainty over whether Trump was actually going to do the dumb thing. Same drill with Canada.
That leaves China. The broad tariff rate to China was bumped by 15%, and given that the broad tariff rate on China was still at the 25% it had been set at in 2019, I think the current broad tariff rate on China is now 40%. (Biden´s narrow tariffs and blocks are also still active.)
So I am seeing this as ´more trade war with China´ which has been ongoing since 2017. I don´t see it as comparable to Brexit, since Brexit was a de facto trade war against France and Germany (basically), Britain´s closest trade partners, whereas (ironically!), Brexit didn´t involve any trade actions against China.
The ´Shock and Awe´ actually appears to be ´Shock & Awe & Bullshit, mostly Bullshit´. This administration looks even more like a Fox News Fantasy TV Presidency than Trump I, which means we are dealing with a deluge of bullshit, so we actually have to keep track of things that have actually happened or may actually happen.
Things that are actually happening appear to be going to war against transfolk, the shutting down of anything that looks remotely like it might benefit minorities (reminiscent of Wilson´s re-institution of segregation in 1913), some weird attempts at cutting outgoing payments and salaries, and the new tariffs on China.
It seems like the primary economic effects to look for at the moment would be centered around the reduction of government spending, friction introduced from the destruction of functioning government services, and loss of skilled personnel due to discrimination & sackings.
There is also the fun involving DOGE, and that appears to involve crackpipe moron libertarianism.. aka your old nemesis Austrian economics. Elon says that all inflation is caused by government spending 🙄 and that there should be many fewer government employees who should be treated like black South African emerald mine workers living under apartheid. Marc Andreessen appears to believe that Trump basically wasn´t president from 2017-2021, and that GDP growth was much slower between 1948 and now compared to 1865(?) -1932(?). Donald Trump, of course, famously believes that the United States was much richer in 1897 than it is now.
If you are well-versed with right-wing moron economic thought, then that should all seem pretty familiar; the usual stuff.
elm
i believe the famous quote from a guy named larry is relevant here: ´there are idiots. look around.´
So far, most of the economic effects appear to have been zilch because nothing has actually happened.
Trump I made tariff threats against Mexico, demanded some token stuff, got the token stuff. Trump II demanded Mexico rush troops to the border to stop fentanyl crossing the border, Mexico said they sent troops to the border (they already had 10k troops there and have had that for awhile), then Trump declared victory. As near as I can tell, no Mexican troops went anywhere, and no tariffs were implemented.
Net trade effect ZILCH. Excepting finance market uncertainty and manufacturer uncertainty over whether Trump was actually going to do the dumb thing. Same drill with Canada.
That leaves China. The broad tariff rate to China was bumped by 15%, and given that the broad tariff rate on China was still at the 25% it had been set at in 2019, I think the current broad tariff rate on China is now 40%. (Biden´s narrow tariffs and blocks are also still active.)
So I am seeing this as ´more trade war with China´ which has been ongoing since 2017. I don´t see it as comparable to Brexit, since Brexit was a de facto trade war against France and Germany (basically), Britain´s closest trade partners, whereas (ironically!), Brexit didn´t involve any trade actions against China.
The ´Shock and Awe´ actually appears to be ´Shock & Awe & Bullshit, mostly Bullshit´. This administration looks even more like a Fox News Fantasy TV Presidency than Trump I, which means we are dealing with a deluge of bullshit, so we actually have to keep track of things that have actually happened or may actually happen.
Things that are actually happening appear to be going to war against transfolk, the shutting down of anything that looks remotely like it might benefit minorities (reminiscent of Wilson´s re-institution of segregation in 1913), some weird attempts at cutting outgoing payments and salaries, and the new tariffs on China.
It seems like the primary economic effects to look for at the moment would be centered around the reduction of government spending, friction introduced from the destruction of functioning government services, and loss of skilled personnel due to discrimination & sackings.
There is also the fun involving DOGE, and that appears to involve crackpipe moron libertarianism.. aka your old nemesis Austrian economics. Elon says that all inflation is caused by government spending 🙄 and that there should be many fewer government employees who should be treated like black South African emerald mine workers living under apartheid. Marc Andreessen appears to believe that Trump basically wasn´t president from 2017-2021, and that GDP growth was much slower between 1948 and now compared to 1865(?) -1932(?). Donald Trump, of course, famously believes that the United States was much richer in 1897 than it is now.
If you are well-versed with right-wing moron economic thought, then that should all seem pretty familiar; the usual stuff.
elm
i believe the famous quote from a guy named larry is relevant here: ´there are idiots. look around.´
Think that this is a brilliant point. Allen