I found this podcast rather strange. On the one hand there was mention that acquiring more land and resources was apparently obsolete in the face of industrialization, yet failing to see that European powers were interested in keeping their colonial acquisitions. Even Britain hung on to India until 1948, and attempted to solidify some vestige of the empire through "The Commonwealth". The US has not formally annexed countries, just stuck 800 military bases around the world and tried to ensure US dominance through a range of means, both military and cultural.
Mentioning "The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers" without actually stating Paul Kennedy's thesis seems rather wrong, IMO. It certainly seems relevant to what is happening with China vs the USA.
Lastly, hasn't the experience of asymmetric wars, cyber attacks, social engineering with propaganda, indicated that that wars are no longer won with sheer industrial and military might. That Gulf War I and II were "won" sort of with massive use of airpower should be proof that this does not work. Afghanistan even more so. Power is no longer met4ed out by the modern equivalent of "sending gunboats up the river".
IOW, Kennedy's thesis about imperial overstretch is probably correct. The US (also UK) has expended vast military resources to little effect. The Falklands War hinted that projection of force by ships was coming to an end as Exocet missiles sunk or crippled UK destroyers. I suspect at some point, we will see the "unthinkable", that US nuclear carrier will be sunk by a swarm of low-tech attack craft, and we will have seen the final nail in the coffin of this type of force projection. Even more subtle will be malware infecting the weapons, despite the best efforts of the military to prevent this.
One point that was missed is teh existential threat of the climate crisis. The discussion tacitly assumed that we will solve our climate problems and economic growth will continue as before, albeit with some [minor] changes. This is unlikely to be the case. The global response to the crisis has been anemic, more talk and little walk. We've seen how disruptive the current migrations to the northern states of the US and Europe have been, and this is but a foretaste of the likely migrations in the future as conditions worsen, governments fail, and starvation rears its head across much of the planet. Will Europe be forced to become a fortress? Will the slowing and possible collapse of the Gulf Stream tip Western Europe, Britain, and possibly the NE USA states into chaos? Will water wars in California deprive much of the US of cheap fruit and vegetables? Will political pressures on nuclear states finally unleash the use of nuclear arms? While I don't expect a Mad Max (or similar dystopic world), I do expect that the apparently blithe assumptions of Great Power trajectories will be radically upset as chaos from the climate crisis worsens, and nations inevitably[?] retreat into internal actions to maintain the stability of the social status quo.
Noah Smith must be a "Post Apollo" baby. IN my experience, that generation seems very ignorant of cultural history. Not even heard of "The Thin Man"? Columbo? I think you both should have a discussion about culture in the 20th century and its influence on geopolitics. Maybe this will invite Noah to do some reading.
Regarding the question of movies that represent a multicultural US society. What about Powell's "My Man Godfrey", a very political movie but has a range of characters from the top to the bottom of society that Powell treats equally? What about "Guess who's Coming to Dinner?" that exposes the very opposite and why the US was not a multicultural society by the mid-1960s or "Gentleman's Agreement" about covert Anti-Semitism 20 years earlier, and apparently still there, by the racist Trump himself. I have just read about the late Richard Trumka's admonition to a woman who would not vote for Obama. When pressed, her excuses eventually fell back to "because he's black". Britain was overtly racist in the 1950s, and like the US, progress seems to have been mainly on the surface for a not-so-small minority of the population. Racism (and Anti-Semitism) have come roaring back, not helped by the prior writings of the current PM. I cringe at the casual racism of British tv shows that I grew up with. We no more saw it than fish see the water they swim in.
Someone mentioned Portugal's Salizar so I went a Wikiing. Seems Portugal was in much turmoil and everyone got tired of turmoil and agreed to let him run the show for a long while. I wonder if that is the rethuglican plan. Maybe somewhat like 30's Spain? Germany pre 32? Interesting that Portugal and Spain walked the tight rope and did not join fully Germany and Italy. Then folks got tired of Salizar and Franco and changed the ruling parties. Will India get tired of Modi? Will Hungary get tired of Orban? Will China get tired of the CCP? Will the US get tired of the rethuglicans?
I found this podcast rather strange. On the one hand there was mention that acquiring more land and resources was apparently obsolete in the face of industrialization, yet failing to see that European powers were interested in keeping their colonial acquisitions. Even Britain hung on to India until 1948, and attempted to solidify some vestige of the empire through "The Commonwealth". The US has not formally annexed countries, just stuck 800 military bases around the world and tried to ensure US dominance through a range of means, both military and cultural.
Mentioning "The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers" without actually stating Paul Kennedy's thesis seems rather wrong, IMO. It certainly seems relevant to what is happening with China vs the USA.
Lastly, hasn't the experience of asymmetric wars, cyber attacks, social engineering with propaganda, indicated that that wars are no longer won with sheer industrial and military might. That Gulf War I and II were "won" sort of with massive use of airpower should be proof that this does not work. Afghanistan even more so. Power is no longer met4ed out by the modern equivalent of "sending gunboats up the river".
IOW, Kennedy's thesis about imperial overstretch is probably correct. The US (also UK) has expended vast military resources to little effect. The Falklands War hinted that projection of force by ships was coming to an end as Exocet missiles sunk or crippled UK destroyers. I suspect at some point, we will see the "unthinkable", that US nuclear carrier will be sunk by a swarm of low-tech attack craft, and we will have seen the final nail in the coffin of this type of force projection. Even more subtle will be malware infecting the weapons, despite the best efforts of the military to prevent this.
Perhaps The Dirty Dozen is a decent example of multi-racial/cultural U.S. war strike team?
One point that was missed is teh existential threat of the climate crisis. The discussion tacitly assumed that we will solve our climate problems and economic growth will continue as before, albeit with some [minor] changes. This is unlikely to be the case. The global response to the crisis has been anemic, more talk and little walk. We've seen how disruptive the current migrations to the northern states of the US and Europe have been, and this is but a foretaste of the likely migrations in the future as conditions worsen, governments fail, and starvation rears its head across much of the planet. Will Europe be forced to become a fortress? Will the slowing and possible collapse of the Gulf Stream tip Western Europe, Britain, and possibly the NE USA states into chaos? Will water wars in California deprive much of the US of cheap fruit and vegetables? Will political pressures on nuclear states finally unleash the use of nuclear arms? While I don't expect a Mad Max (or similar dystopic world), I do expect that the apparently blithe assumptions of Great Power trajectories will be radically upset as chaos from the climate crisis worsens, and nations inevitably[?] retreat into internal actions to maintain the stability of the social status quo.
Noah Smith must be a "Post Apollo" baby. IN my experience, that generation seems very ignorant of cultural history. Not even heard of "The Thin Man"? Columbo? I think you both should have a discussion about culture in the 20th century and its influence on geopolitics. Maybe this will invite Noah to do some reading.
Regarding the question of movies that represent a multicultural US society. What about Powell's "My Man Godfrey", a very political movie but has a range of characters from the top to the bottom of society that Powell treats equally? What about "Guess who's Coming to Dinner?" that exposes the very opposite and why the US was not a multicultural society by the mid-1960s or "Gentleman's Agreement" about covert Anti-Semitism 20 years earlier, and apparently still there, by the racist Trump himself. I have just read about the late Richard Trumka's admonition to a woman who would not vote for Obama. When pressed, her excuses eventually fell back to "because he's black". Britain was overtly racist in the 1950s, and like the US, progress seems to have been mainly on the surface for a not-so-small minority of the population. Racism (and Anti-Semitism) have come roaring back, not helped by the prior writings of the current PM. I cringe at the casual racism of British tv shows that I grew up with. We no more saw it than fish see the water they swim in.
Someone mentioned Portugal's Salizar so I went a Wikiing. Seems Portugal was in much turmoil and everyone got tired of turmoil and agreed to let him run the show for a long while. I wonder if that is the rethuglican plan. Maybe somewhat like 30's Spain? Germany pre 32? Interesting that Portugal and Spain walked the tight rope and did not join fully Germany and Italy. Then folks got tired of Salizar and Franco and changed the ruling parties. Will India get tired of Modi? Will Hungary get tired of Orban? Will China get tired of the CCP? Will the US get tired of the rethuglicans?