Noah Smith & Brad DeLong Record the Podcast We, at Least, Would Like to Listen to!; Aspirationally Bi-Weekly (Meaning Every Other Week); Aspirationally an hour...
"Not well at all, for anyone who defines “THE LEFT” to consist of former Bernie staffers who regard Elizabeth Warren as a neoliberal sellout."
This seems to be a pretty standard move from neoliberals. THE LEFT is defined to be so small and extreme as to be not worth considering - I've even seen it defined by obscure Italian Marxists like Negri. Suppose instead that you consider Elizabeth Warren to be representative of the median leftist, in a range from (say) Lina Khan to the Squad. On that basis, the left looks to be doing pretty well, even if THE LEFT is not.
Well, I can certainly agree with the criticism of "the Left" and I sort of agree with your definition of that. Though on policy I'd fall into your "Left", on politics I very much don't.
But I think you're far too optimistic about the "20 Republicans" who might vote with us. It's cherry-picking I know, but .... J. D. Vance? Really? The guy desperately making fascist noises to win Trump's approval? Nah, he's not an ally, not now, likely not ever.* When push comes to shove, we're probably looking at *maybe* 2-3 R votes.
*The "likely" is in that clause only because Vance is so utterly self-seeking that a major change in US politics might see a (cynical) turn in his voting.
2. So is most of the left: the Pramila Jayapals of the world. They're New Dealers at heart. There are no Bernie bros holding federal elective office--including Bernie or AOC.
3. Mark Field is correct. The "20 Republicans" are allies the same way that Stalin was an ally in WWII. We might have a shared enemy (China), and can cooperate on that. But we have no shared interests, and few shared values. (We share some values with MItt Romney, but he's a Mammonist with no interest in industrial policy. Maybe we share some interests and values with Lisa Murkowski and Don Bacon. Maybe?)
Next Hexapodia suggestion: Smack down of Noah for being a tool of neoliberalism, and much worse, a tool of neofascism. It is the fashion for economists to parse, sort, identify and amplify the cataclysm of incipient, current, and continuing inflation. And not just among the grey beards who experienced the 1970's. It is cool to do, and supported by the billionaires who grew up on Monetarism. Why, the March inflation rate on video discs was 78%, for photography film it was 60%, and for eggs it was 71%. Children's eggs. My God, Mandrake!
And yet, the current round of inflation is much like the 1970's. Which is to say that it is a global experience, and so not determined by US monetary or fiscal policy. The supply side dominates. If we have a relapse, as in the 70's, it will be due to geopolitical driven shortages.
Yes, I wish that the third Covid stimulus package had emphasized supply rather than demand. And yes, I wish that somebody in Congress tried to keep the fiscal deficit under 2% when there's full employment. But harping on inflation or employment at this point qualifies one to be a useful idiot for the grand coalition of the proto-fascists, the neo-fascists, and paleo-fascists. And Noah is far, far too smart to be a useful idiot, or an unwilling one. I hope.
I wondering if this was triggered in part by Biden's FTC and Justice Dept announcing actions intended to start the process of reversing the Chicago School's demolition of antitrust regulation and law and restarting TR-style trust busting in favor of citizens (sometimes deflectively termed "consumers") rather than joint stock corporations and their billionaire owner class as has been the case since the 1980s (even, and particularly, during the Clinton and Obama Administrations).
We can discuss what "The Left" means. But WTAF is inflation? 2.5% or 4% isn't trivial.
I think annualized Core PCE inflation for the past 4 quarters is Q2: 3.7%; Q3: 2.0%, Q4: 2.0%; Q1-2024: 3.7%.
And then there are dubious imputations, notably for owners rent equivalent (also lags a lot) and financial costs driven by the Fed's own interest rate hikes. Excluding imputations, the market based Core PCE for the past 4 quarters is: Q2: 3.7%; Q3: 1.9%, Q4: 2.3%, Q1-2024: 3.1%.
But Furman uses a median inflation rate, the Fed looks at core services, etc. There are many ways to measure inflation, but without something closer to consensus, the result is that the higher numbers are easy pickings for the Fox New apocalypse and NYT's "Bad for Biden" (BfB) stories.
"The principal business of “Leftist” activists over the past five years really has been and continues to be to try to grease the skids for the return of neofascism"
I am curious as to how you parse out their intent. Do you believe they are wittingly compromised 'controlled opposition,' or rather, trying to enable the rise of neofascism so that then, the people will see it in its full version and cause the (theoretically inevitable, per Marxism) overthrow of the system, much sooner?
The old 'enhance the contradictions' (of capitalism) so it collapses from within and (insert magic step here) a utopian society rises from the ashes? I have the impression that Nader's plan was the latter.
"Not well at all, for anyone who defines “THE LEFT” to consist of former Bernie staffers who regard Elizabeth Warren as a neoliberal sellout."
This seems to be a pretty standard move from neoliberals. THE LEFT is defined to be so small and extreme as to be not worth considering - I've even seen it defined by obscure Italian Marxists like Negri. Suppose instead that you consider Elizabeth Warren to be representative of the median leftist, in a range from (say) Lina Khan to the Squad. On that basis, the left looks to be doing pretty well, even if THE LEFT is not.
Well, I can certainly agree with the criticism of "the Left" and I sort of agree with your definition of that. Though on policy I'd fall into your "Left", on politics I very much don't.
But I think you're far too optimistic about the "20 Republicans" who might vote with us. It's cherry-picking I know, but .... J. D. Vance? Really? The guy desperately making fascist noises to win Trump's approval? Nah, he's not an ally, not now, likely not ever.* When push comes to shove, we're probably looking at *maybe* 2-3 R votes.
*The "likely" is in that clause only because Vance is so utterly self-seeking that a major change in US politics might see a (cynical) turn in his voting.
1. I'm with Brad on neo-supply side.
2. So is most of the left: the Pramila Jayapals of the world. They're New Dealers at heart. There are no Bernie bros holding federal elective office--including Bernie or AOC.
3. Mark Field is correct. The "20 Republicans" are allies the same way that Stalin was an ally in WWII. We might have a shared enemy (China), and can cooperate on that. But we have no shared interests, and few shared values. (We share some values with MItt Romney, but he's a Mammonist with no interest in industrial policy. Maybe we share some interests and values with Lisa Murkowski and Don Bacon. Maybe?)
Next Hexapodia suggestion: Smack down of Noah for being a tool of neoliberalism, and much worse, a tool of neofascism. It is the fashion for economists to parse, sort, identify and amplify the cataclysm of incipient, current, and continuing inflation. And not just among the grey beards who experienced the 1970's. It is cool to do, and supported by the billionaires who grew up on Monetarism. Why, the March inflation rate on video discs was 78%, for photography film it was 60%, and for eggs it was 71%. Children's eggs. My God, Mandrake!
And yet, the current round of inflation is much like the 1970's. Which is to say that it is a global experience, and so not determined by US monetary or fiscal policy. The supply side dominates. If we have a relapse, as in the 70's, it will be due to geopolitical driven shortages.
Yes, I wish that the third Covid stimulus package had emphasized supply rather than demand. And yes, I wish that somebody in Congress tried to keep the fiscal deficit under 2% when there's full employment. But harping on inflation or employment at this point qualifies one to be a useful idiot for the grand coalition of the proto-fascists, the neo-fascists, and paleo-fascists. And Noah is far, far too smart to be a useful idiot, or an unwilling one. I hope.
I wondering if this was triggered in part by Biden's FTC and Justice Dept announcing actions intended to start the process of reversing the Chicago School's demolition of antitrust regulation and law and restarting TR-style trust busting in favor of citizens (sometimes deflectively termed "consumers") rather than joint stock corporations and their billionaire owner class as has been the case since the 1980s (even, and particularly, during the Clinton and Obama Administrations).
We can discuss what "The Left" means. But WTAF is inflation? 2.5% or 4% isn't trivial.
I think annualized Core PCE inflation for the past 4 quarters is Q2: 3.7%; Q3: 2.0%, Q4: 2.0%; Q1-2024: 3.7%.
And then there are dubious imputations, notably for owners rent equivalent (also lags a lot) and financial costs driven by the Fed's own interest rate hikes. Excluding imputations, the market based Core PCE for the past 4 quarters is: Q2: 3.7%; Q3: 1.9%, Q4: 2.3%, Q1-2024: 3.1%.
But Furman uses a median inflation rate, the Fed looks at core services, etc. There are many ways to measure inflation, but without something closer to consensus, the result is that the higher numbers are easy pickings for the Fox New apocalypse and NYT's "Bad for Biden" (BfB) stories.
"The principal business of “Leftist” activists over the past five years really has been and continues to be to try to grease the skids for the return of neofascism"
I am curious as to how you parse out their intent. Do you believe they are wittingly compromised 'controlled opposition,' or rather, trying to enable the rise of neofascism so that then, the people will see it in its full version and cause the (theoretically inevitable, per Marxism) overthrow of the system, much sooner?
The old 'enhance the contradictions' (of capitalism) so it collapses from within and (insert magic step here) a utopian society rises from the ashes? I have the impression that Nader's plan was the latter.