Reading Gershberg & Illing: Þe Paradox of Democracy: Free Speech, Open Media, & Perilous Persuasion
Reading Gershberg & Illing: Þe Paradox of Democracy: Free Speech, Open Media, & Perilous Persuasion
Not yet a book review—I am still digesting it...
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FIRST: Reading Gershberg and Illing: The Paradox of Democracy: Free Speech, Open Media, & Perilous Persuasion
I have not yet digested Zac Gershberg & Sean Illing (2022): The Paradox of Democracy: Free Speech, Open Media, & Perilous Persuasion <https://www.amazon.com/dp/022668170X>. I do know that when I have digested it, I will feel very positively about it, and recommend it highly.
At the moment, however, I just want to register two passages from Sean’s appearance on The Ezra Klein Show:
Ezra Klein: Trump’s persuasive effect…. He didn’t code it in the way that appeals to the policy wonks…. He persuaded a lot of people in part through the fights he picked, in part through who he went after that he was going to represent them, right? That they didn’t like immigration and nor did he. That they didn’t like how this country was changing and nor did he. That they didn’t like Democrats and nor did he. But also they didn’t like George W. Bush and nor did he…. You persuade people that you’re on their side… [if] you come to share their enemies…. You have to convince people first and foremost that you’re on their side before they’re going to listen to almost anything else you tell them. And people judge whether you’re on their side not by the white papers you put out but by more fundamental positioning and temperament and choosing of enemies and picking of fights. It’s why I’ve always said that the relevant question isn’t what’s popular that you’re willing to say, but what is unpopular that you’re willing to say…
And
Sean Illing: Media technology today… is actually very different from the past… [and] evolves so much faster now. For most of human history, the world you died in looked a lot like the world you were born into. And that kind of stability puts culture on a solid footing. Now, I don’t even understand what my 13-year-old niece is doing on TikTok. The pace of change is too fast for our institutions, too fast for our culture, and probably too fast for our minds to adjust…. We had roughly 200 years after the printing press without any major revolutions in media technology. And we needed all of that time to develop the institutions of modernity. But I’m not sure we have another 200 years to adjust to this revolution. And things are going to keep changing at breakneck speed. So I don’t know where that leads us, Ezra, but I do think it means we should expect a bumpy ride…
LINK: <https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/26/opinion/ezra-klein-podcast-sean-illing.html?showTranscript=1>
About the first: Ezra Klein is positively Schmittian here—Karl Schmittian, that politics is war, and that the most important thing is to choose your enemies, and that will then tell you who your friends are. That tends to lead in the direction of populist-authoritarianism: fascism (your enemies are the rootless cosmopolites, and mongrels, and others who do not feel the identity of the true people in their bones) or of really-existing socialism (your enemies are the bourgeoisie and their supporters). That tends to lead away from discussion-based pickup coalition-building: liberal democracy (we have a very good thing going, we here together, but we need to improve it) and away from conservative constitutionalism (we have a very good thing going, we here together, but we need to restore it). To the extent that politics in the age of social media is a politics of clickbait, outrage, friends, and enemies (rather than a politics of fixing leaks in the roof or constructing an addition to our common home) that augers very badly for the future of America.
Now do not get me wrong: in America, the politics of friends and enemies did not emerge with Trump’s use of social media or even Gingrich’s use of talk radio. It was always there. Consider Herbert Hoover in the late 1950s, in his dotage, still inveighing against THAT COMMUNIST ROOSEVELT. Consider Democratic Missouri Thomas Eagleton in 1972—about to be chosen as Vice Presidential running mate by Democratic Presidential nominee George McGovern—telling right-wing sleaze artist Robert Novak off the record that McGovern was the candidate of “acid, amnesty, and abortion”. Consider my friend Stuart Kirkpatrick’s Jeanne Kirkpatrick at the 1984 Republican National Convention, fed by Pat Buchanan the line; “They always blame America first, those San Francisco Democrats”—i.e., not just commies, but gay as well.
But, in my view at least, before Gingrich there was always a very strong sense that the political center-of-gravity was still liberal and conservative—working together to fix roof leaks or finish the addition, with disagreements as to how to do it best. The Karl Schmittians were, by and large, kept in cages from which they were let out for get-out-the-base vote drives.
It was a different time. As never-Trump right-winger Tom Nichols put it:
In the Before Times, we still argued over politics instead of whether communist Muslims had taken over our Venezuelan voting machines with help from the Italian space program. I felt like it was safe to throw elbows and do some partisan high-sticking; I believed that we were all in a giant bouncy house called the Constitution, a place where we might bump skulls or sprain an ankle now and then but where there were no sharp edges and there were only soft landings. I don’t believe that anymore…
Nichols sees the change as coming with Trump. I see it as coming two decades earlier, with Gingrich. And I see it as well-cemented by the early 2000s, when Andrew Sullivan could make a career out of how-great-it-is-to-lie-to-own-the-libs! things like:
The Krugmans and the Chaits will shortly have a cow, if not a whole herd of them. The Times will weigh in again with yet another barrage of articles, editorials, and op-eds opposing any tax relief…. Controlling government spending is simply impossible without deficits…. Some commentators… get steamed because Bush has obscured this figure or claimed his tax cut will cost less than it actually will…. These arguments have merit—but they miss the deeper point. The fact that Bush has to obfuscate his real goals of reducing spending with the smoke screen of “compassionate conservatism” shows how uphill the struggle is…. A certain amount of B.S. is necessary for any vaguely successful retrenchment of government power in an insatiable entitlement state…
LINK: <https://yglesias.typepad.com/matthew/2005/05/the_lies_the_li.html>
And:
The middle part of the country—the great red zone that voted for Bush—is clearly ready for war. The decadent Left in its enclaves on the coasts is not dead—and may well mount what amounts to a fifth column…
But now is not the time to argue about this. The thing to note now is that we must discern whether Ezra Klein is right in his speculations that politics in the age of social media has a very strong drive toward Schmittianism—and thus toward populist authoritarianism.
About the second: this “all that is solid melts into air”—that we have to remake sociological and political institutions to fit radically changed economic and technological foundations, and we need to do this in decades or years rather than centuries—is, of course, music to my ears, as it is one of the major points about what has been different about history in the 20th century that I make in Slouching <bit.ly/3pP3Krk>. It may be slowing down—there are signs that the pace of technological change is not what it was over 1870-2010, where information technology gave us the global telegraph, the linotype, the telephone, the radio, the television, and now the internet. But how we gain information and how we speak to each other is going to continue to shift, seismically, every generation. And that means that the sociological forces and political procedures requires to support stable democracy or functioning constitutionalism are going to shift, seismically, every generation as well.
The big problem I see is that Postan and McLuhan simply identified the problem. And Gershberg and Illing do no better: at the end of their book, they take an existentialist turn.
But if we knew how to rejigger our sociology and our politics to keep 40% of our country from become zombie-eyed captives of an orange-haired grifting baboon, and could keep them from succumbing to clickbait that glues their eyes to screens so they can be sold fake diabetes cures and crypto assets, we would already have done it, wouldn’t we?
CONDITION: How Does One Sell Books Here in the 21st Century?
The word from the publisher is that the most constructive thing I can do now—a month and a half out from the September 6 launch of Slouching Towards Utopia <bit.ly/3pP3Krk>—is if I can somehow “generate more organic buzz” around the book. This is a puzzle…
One Video:
Edward James Olmos: ‘So Say We All’ <https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mkiZxtzy55k>:
One Image:
Very Briefly Noted:
Stephen S. Roach: Deglobalization’s China Wild Card: ‘China’s gains from the globalization of trade have been extraordinary. In the decade prior to China’s 2001 accession to the World Trade Organization, Chinese exports averaged just 2% of total world exports…. By 2021, Chinese exports had surged to 12.7% of world exports, well above the pre–2008 peak… <https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/china-hit-hard-by-slowing-world-trade-by-stephen-s-roach-2022-07>
The Economist: What to Read to Understand How Countries Escape the Worst Poverty <https://www.economist.com/the-economist-reads/2022/07/21/what-to-read-to-understand-how-countries-escape-the-worst-poverty>
Sahil Bloom: The Most Powerful Decision Making Razors <https://www.sahilbloom.com/newsletter/the-most-powerful-decision-making-razors>
James Buchanan: Has Economics Lost Its Way?: ’IV. The Keynesian Aberration… <https://delong.typepad.com/buch_econlostway.pdf>
Brad DeLong: Comments—Unsatisfactory Musings on the Rise of the Neoliberal Order: “FDR’s relentless messaging from the 1932 campaign…. The Post-[World W]ar [II} order was not sustainable because it was not sustained…”—Very good line!… <https://braddelong.substack.com/p/unsatisfactory-musings-on-the-rise/comment/7928551>
Twitter & ‘Stack:
Daniel Larison: [Walter Russell] Mead Shrugged: ‘If you don’t know who was right over the last seven years, you are not likely to have the first clue what to do next or who can be relied on for sound policy advice…. Mead has been in sympathy with the [Iran] deal-wreckers for years, so his feigned neutrality can’t be taken seriously. He is like a pyromaniac excitedly watching an arsonist’s handiwork and then pretending not to know who is responsible for the fire…
Dan Diamond: ‘“Here’s the bottom line,” Biden says…. “The difference is vaccinations” plus tools like Paxlovid…
Benn Eifert: Dr. Eifert’s Inception-to-Date Collection of interview questions. Please please read the footnotes below one of them before trying to snark. “Enjoy” (maniacal laughter)… <
Leah Boustan: Interview by Noah Smith: ‘Immigrants take steps to ‘fit in’ just as much today as they did in the past…
Policy Tensor: The Yield Curve Is Predicting Much Worse than a Recession
Damon Linker: Thinking About Fascism—Part 2
Timothy Snyder: The State of the Russo-Ukrainian War
I greatly enjoy and am, in fact, driven to write Grasping Reality—but its long-term viability and quality do depend on voluntary subscriptions from paying supporters. I am incredibly grateful that the great bulk of it goes out for free to what is now well over ten-thousand subscribers around the world. If you are enjoying the newsletter enough to wish to join the group receiving it regularly, please press the button below to sign up for a free subscription and get (the bulk of) it in your email inbox. And if you are enjoying the newsletter enough to wish to join the group of supporters, please press the button below and sign up for a paid subscription:
Director’s Cut PAID SUBSCRIBER ONLY Content Below:
Immigrants settle in places where there is opportunity, immigrants move to places where there is opportunity, immigrant parents’ incomes, and occupations may well not reflect their high non-English human capital that they infuse into their children, and immigrants are more willing to move not just place but occupation as well. Painting, with a very broad brush, that is why immigrants’ children are upwardly mobile in America. And that is why third-generation Americans see America as, overwhelmingly, working for them and their families:
Leah Boustan: Interview by Noah Smith: ‘Immigrants take steps to ‘fit in’ just as much today as they did in the past…. Mexican immigrants and their children achieve a substantial amount of integration, both economically and culturally… are actually the group that experiences the fastest assimilation… are certainly trying to become American to the same degree (if not more!) than other groups…. The reasons for this immigrant advantage… the single most important factor is geography. Immigrants tended to settle in dynamic cities…. We suspect that educational differences between groups matter today…
LINK:
Oh boy. This is not good news, not good news at all. The amount by which the bond market now expects the Fed to overshoot tightening and be frantically trying to fight recession next year. It's some thing I find truly disturbing. It is not just that the bond market disagrees with the Fed as both fallibly attempt to peer through the veils of time and ignorance. It is also that the bond market's expectations can quickly turn into self-fulfilling prophecy:
Policy Tensor: The Yield Curve Is Predicting Much Worse than a Recession.: ‘the 6mo–3mo spread shows that the market expects the Fed to already start cutting rates in 2022Q4…. This is astonishing. The disagreement with the Fed’s dot plot diplomacy could not be more obvious. The market has essentially rejected the fed’s model of the world. The Fed is wrong, it is saying, after driving the economy into recession, you’ll be cutting in a few months…. The yield curve is now saying rates will be close to the zero lower-bound in 2023…. The yield curve is pricing a prolonged period of poor expected returns on duration risk assets…. Long-term return expectations on risk assets are now so poor that you can get negative rates on bonds…. Note that the 5y10y did not invert when the short end was pricing recession in 2019. Clearly, the market now reckons that long-term prospects have deteriorated in a way it did not in 2019…. We’re seeing a “double inversion,” with both 5y10y and 2y5y inverted…
LINK:
Very good ways to hack your brain to become a much smarter person:
Sahil Bloom: The Most Powerful Decision Making Razors: ‘The Feynman Razor: Complexity and jargon are used to mask a lack of deep understanding…. The Luck Razor: When choosing between two paths, choose the path that has a larger luck surface area. Much of what we call “luck” is actually the macro result of 1,000s of micro actions…. The Arena Razor: When faced with two paths, choose the path that puts you in the arena…. The Optimist Razor: When choosing who to spend time with, prioritize spending more time with optimists…. Taleb’s “Look the Part” Test…. The one who doesn’t look the part, conditional of having made a (sort of) successful career in his profession, had to have much to overcome in terms of perception…. The Gratitude Razor: When in doubt, choose to show MORE gratitude…. The Invested vs. Spent Test…. Invested time—actions that compound…. When choosing what to do, prioritize investing time, not spending it. The Rooms Razor…. Choose the room where you’re more likely to be the dumbest one in the room…. The New Project Razor…. Is this a “hell yes!” opportunity? If not, say no. If yes, proceed to Step 2. Imagine that this is going to take 2x as long and be 1/2 as profitable as you expect. Do you still want to do it? If no, say no. If yes, take on the project…. The Uphill Decision Razor: When faced with two options, choose the one that’s more difficult in the short-term…. Occam’s Razor…. The simplest explanation is often the best one…. Listen Mode: If you encounter someone with opinions or perspectives very different from your own, listen twice as much as you speak…. The Lion Razor: If you have the choice, always choose to sprint and then rest…. The Smart Friends Razor: If your smartest friends are all interested in something, it’s worth paying attention to. If that something seems crazy, it’s worth paying a lot of attention to…. The Young & Old Test: Make decisions that your 80-year old self and 10-year-old self would be proud of…. The Duck Test: If it looks like a duck, swims like a duck, and quacks like a duck, it’s probably a duck…. Hanlon’s Razor: Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity…. Hitchens’ Razor & Newton’s Flaming Laser Sword: Anything asserted without evidence can be dismissed without evidence…. The Opinion Razor: “I never allow myself to have an opinion on anything that I don’t know the other side’s argument better than they do.”—Charlie Munger. Opinions are earned—not owed…. The Writing Knife Block: If you’re struggling to understand something, try writing it out…. The Braggers Razor: Truly successful people rarely feel the need to brag…. The Reading Razor: When deciding what to read, just read whatever grabs you. When it stops grabbing you, put it down…. The Stress-Reward Test…. If something is going to be stressful, consider whether the reward is sufficiently outsized to justify the stress…
LINK: <https://www.sahilbloom.com/newsletter/the-most-powerful-decision-making-razors>
This serves as a good index of how much Milton Friedman’s redefinition of “neutral monetary policy” to mean “whatever monetary policy keeps nominal GDP on its trend growth path” led people prone to motivated reasoning in a laissez-faire direction completely and horribly astray. It also serves as an example of an astonishing failure to mark one’s beliefs to market. Never mind that the rough constant of M2 velocity before 1980 had been an obvious example of Goodhart’s Law. Never mind that even before 1980 forecasts of the state of the economy one and two years out based on M2 were inferior to other forecast. By 1997 James Buchanan had just seen a remarkable five-year 30% runup in M2 velocity. and the complete ditching of monetary aggregates not just as targets but even as indicators by Alan Greenspan in favor of a neo-Wicksellian “neutral interest rate” approach that had nothing whatsoever to do with an “effective monetary constitution” of any type. And yet Buchanan clings to his conviction that the market system was failed in the Great Depression because had its “monetary constitution” been sound, it would have been impossible for there to have been anything like the Great Depression:
James Buchanan: Has Economics Lost Its Way?: ’IV. The Keynesian Aberration….. The Keynesian enterprise can be interpreted as an ultimately failed attempt to jury-rig improvements on a structure of institutional constraints that were nonsustainable… an aberration… grounded in rather elementary misunderstanding of… the classical vision…. Who could expect that ‘the market’ could adjust quickly to a dramatic reduction in the politically-influenced and unpredictable supply of money? It must remain forever mysterious as to why Keynes and the Keynesians were willing to neglect prospects for institutional reforms in the effective monetary constitution, while, at the same time, proposing radical changes along other more specific dimensions of policy… politicized controls over particular choice vectors (employment, investment)…
Sarcasm and irony rule. Yes, Trump is a fascist. He has punched all the tickets required by Damon Linker:
Damon Linker: Thinking About Fascism—Part 2 : ‘When it comes to political rhetoric, Trump’s most fasc-ish moment probably came in his “American Carnage” inaugural address… A country in a state of physical, moral, and spiritual collapse because of the ineptitude of its leadership—and then presents himself as the nation’s savior, giving the government back to “the people” so the country can pursue its “glorious destiny.”… What would it take for me to pronounce them outright fascists? Probably something like Trump running for president in 2024 with paramilitaries by his side and violence regularly erupting at his rallies; the candidate openly calling for repression of groups (like undocumented immigrants) and deploying lies about the stolen 2020 election as a “stabbed in the back” myth to demonize the opposing party (and insufficiently loyal members of his own party) as traitors; and the candidate promising, among other things, to gut the federal bureaucracy and replace it with cronies vetted for personal loyalty alone…
LINK:
The Spanish Civil War 1936-9 analogy to Ukraine today gets stronger and stronger:
Timothy Snyder: The State of the Russo-Ukrainian War: ‘This war is… is about self-rule and survival…. On the battlefield, in my view, what is happening is that Russia is losing…. I believe… that it is most likely that Ukraine will win this war, on the basis of seven underlying factors that tend to decide the form of armed conflicts: time, economics, logistics, landscape, mode of combat, ethos, and strategy (the TELLMES)…. The war has shown that the Ukrainian state (or really Ukrainian civil society) is far more resilient and functional than almost anyone would have thought. Ukraine is, in my view at least, in a position to win this war. But given the nature of its disadvantages, especially in economic power, Ukraine is vulnerable to shifts in how we think…. Russia’s shortcut to victory, and perhaps its only route to victory, is in convincing us that Ukraine cannot win (or that the war is somehow Ukraine’s fault, and that it would somehow stop if we turned away)…
LINK:
Generate "organic buzz"by adopting outrageous stances on social media. Get the right wing outage machine to brand you a Communist. Reasonable folks will really to your defence and buy the book. E.g. Slouching Towards Utopia undermines the tax cut mania of the right. Or Slouching makes the case that immigration is vital to America's future economic and physical security. To put it briefly, chumthe waters.
"But, in my view at least, before Gingrich there was always a very strong sense that the political center-of-gravity was still liberal and conservative—working together to fix roof leaks or finish the addition, with disagreements as to how to do it best."
I think Rick Perlstein would push the problem back at least to Nixon and probably to Goldwater.