The Debt Ceiling, &: Alternate Brads, & more; including Damned if I can understand why anyone looks at Hakeem Jeffries and Kevin McCarthy and has any problem figuring out who would be a better Speaker
Brink Lindsey almost had me until "It’s the arrogant and narrow-minded prejudice of scientism to suggest that this know-how is an inferior form of knowledge." Sorry, but it is. It can interpolate, sometimes successfully, but it can't handle novel situations. It can't make useful predictions outside of a narrow well explored space. It can't manage an internal model or maintain consistency.
ChatGPT is a fascinating rhetorical device that lets us appreciate amazing usefulness of the Bayesian reliability of classical logic.
P.S. The ability of ChatGPT to pass the bar exam partially validates the criticisms of standardized testing. It is definitely possible to get good grades and pass tests by Bayesian mimickry. This suggests rethinking the tests, not eliminating them or suggesting that passing the test qualifies ChatGPT.
I like your take on the debt ceiling stand off. The Democrats should stop playing the Republicans game. Why not cut off Social Security payments to people living in congressional districts represented by opponents of Social Security? Suggest people consider moving to more retiree friendly places. Alternatively, just keep cutting checks and see if anyone refuses to cash them. Invoke the 14th amendment if any party does.
I might settle for Strain's compromise. (Depending upon the details, of course.) It's not a horrible time - shrieks of protest around 'austerity' notwithstanding - for some fiscal trimming (unless the Fed actually succeeds in provoking a recession, which it's having trouble doing). As for giving the Republicans issues, it's hard to see how an averted-crisis would really hurt Democrats, but it's actually very difficult to predict where voters' anger around a shutdown would get directed. Meanwhile Biden's making Democrats look like fools for pursuing Trump around classified documents. We may not get to July...
"I am fearful of the quest for one single interface between our eyes, our fingers, and our machines."
Me too. I've been fearing the day when a laptop becomes just another style of phone. Touch screens are one margin, but Apple has pushing on other margins for quite some time. The hard-to-override disappearance of the Menu in fullscreen mode is an example that comes to mind. The tendency in photo-related apps to hide file locations is another.
Every Brad, All At Once.