1. The industrial and agricultural depressions and revolutions of 1848
Presumably easily avoided by smart central bankers running fiat currency systems, but alas, neither existed at the time.
2. The crash of 1873
Ditto.
3. World War I
Largely due to the mistaken idea that empires were cost effective.
4. The post-WWI German hyperinflation
Well, they had the fiat currency system, but this was a situation that even smart central bankers lacked tools to offset the shocks imposed by the politicians.
5. The Great Depression of the 1930s
Not clear whether smarter central bankers could have prevented it notwithstanding being shackled by the gold standard. The persistence even after going off gold imlies some lack of smarts
6. The Great Inflation of the 1970s
Pure unadulterated monetary policy mistakes, principally in believing in a "Phillips Curve" as a structral parameter of the economy.
6. The global financial crisis and Great Recession that started in 2008
Given the failures of prudential regulation, this one is unexplainable. We had a fiat system. Bernanke was plenty smart. So, what stood in the way of doing "whatever it took" to re-establish expectation of target inflation?
7. The COVID plague.
Given unnecessary delays in developing and rolling out vaccines and cost ineffective NPI's, This was handed exceptionally well. One suspects, but cannot prove, that the EFFR could have been increased some months earlier and inflation brough back to target sooner, but the quick recovery in inflation expectations to near target and avoidance of recession, should go into the textbooks on how a central bank should manage even very large negative shocks.
Score:
Ignorance 2
Politicians 2
Bad central banking 2
Bad public healting but good central banking 1
The second edition of the book should be better informed about the potential for good and evil of monetary policy.
This reminds me. There’s a terrific section on the highly uneven emancipation of European Jewry in Christopher Clark’s new book on 1848. As I recall it, progress is not a straight line, but a meandering path that led often enough to disasters like the catastrophe of 19 33-45.
Your penultimate sentence has it that "Just as James makes much of the financial-economic history of the mid-1800s human and accessible by presenting it through the lens of the intellectual biography of Marx, he successfully does the same for much of the financial-economic history of the mid-1800s by presenting it through the lens of the intellectual biography of Keynes." This would seem to make more sense if the second "mid-1800s" were changed to "mid-1900s."
1. The industrial and agricultural depressions and revolutions of 1848
Presumably easily avoided by smart central bankers running fiat currency systems, but alas, neither existed at the time.
2. The crash of 1873
Ditto.
3. World War I
Largely due to the mistaken idea that empires were cost effective.
4. The post-WWI German hyperinflation
Well, they had the fiat currency system, but this was a situation that even smart central bankers lacked tools to offset the shocks imposed by the politicians.
5. The Great Depression of the 1930s
Not clear whether smarter central bankers could have prevented it notwithstanding being shackled by the gold standard. The persistence even after going off gold imlies some lack of smarts
6. The Great Inflation of the 1970s
Pure unadulterated monetary policy mistakes, principally in believing in a "Phillips Curve" as a structral parameter of the economy.
6. The global financial crisis and Great Recession that started in 2008
Given the failures of prudential regulation, this one is unexplainable. We had a fiat system. Bernanke was plenty smart. So, what stood in the way of doing "whatever it took" to re-establish expectation of target inflation?
7. The COVID plague.
Given unnecessary delays in developing and rolling out vaccines and cost ineffective NPI's, This was handed exceptionally well. One suspects, but cannot prove, that the EFFR could have been increased some months earlier and inflation brough back to target sooner, but the quick recovery in inflation expectations to near target and avoidance of recession, should go into the textbooks on how a central bank should manage even very large negative shocks.
Score:
Ignorance 2
Politicians 2
Bad central banking 2
Bad public healting but good central banking 1
The second edition of the book should be better informed about the potential for good and evil of monetary policy.
Thank you for the Harold James book and for the review. On days like these the subscription to Grasping feels like a gift that keeps giving.
This reminds me. There’s a terrific section on the highly uneven emancipation of European Jewry in Christopher Clark’s new book on 1848. As I recall it, progress is not a straight line, but a meandering path that led often enough to disasters like the catastrophe of 19 33-45.
Your penultimate sentence has it that "Just as James makes much of the financial-economic history of the mid-1800s human and accessible by presenting it through the lens of the intellectual biography of Marx, he successfully does the same for much of the financial-economic history of the mid-1800s by presenting it through the lens of the intellectual biography of Keynes." This would seem to make more sense if the second "mid-1800s" were changed to "mid-1900s."
touché...
NB. Too many "not"s in the Thucydides quotation, as given here.