I though Prof. DeLong's original essay on passing the baton was one of the most honest pieces of writing I have ever seen emitted from the mainstream economics profession. Very few high-level economists will admit that any theory and practice they have advanced for 20+ years is flawed or needs to be replaced. And the number of neoliberals of any prominence who have done so is exactly one (Prof DeLong); the usual neoliberal defense against criticism is to start with denying that US-style neoliberalism exists and counterattack from that base (including of course the obligatory deflection into the history of European Neoliberal theory, which has very little to do with US neoliberalism other than the weak tea filtered through Thatcherism).
With that in mind, I'm confused on how one can argue that the younger generation of progressive and/or liberal and/or Democratic politicians has failed to "take the baton". As far as I can see the gerontocracy that runs the Democratic Party, its money sources, and its resources is still firmly in charge, and reasonably well funded by some Wall Street elements to keep the status reasonably quo (from their point of view). There is no sign that any of the remaining Peters-era neoliberals, Clinton Administration staffers (less one), or Obama Administration senior staffers are willing to concede they have made a single mistake of theory, strategy, or tactics since they were so deeply wounded on Nov 4th 1980 and vowed revenge on "the left", much less that they are willing to pass a baton to much younger critics.
It isn't just the DC-NYC axis though. I track the politics of the City of St. Louis and the surrounding County and for the last 15 years any young politician, typically a POC or other non-traditional background, who achieves any personal prominence and tries to implement any progressive change is smashed down by the alliance of old while men who are coordinated by the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, up to an including ginned up criminal prosecutions for actions that were winked at for 205 years before that. Other cities and regions in the Midwest that I am familiar with see similar actions. The old white slightly-socially-liberal, otherwise conservative men just aren't giving up their grip and deeply believe they are right not to do so.
I think you may be a bit too pessimistic. The mainstream Democratic party has given up on left-neoliberalism: the notion of taxing otherwise-unchecked capitalism, and redistributing the proceeds downward. They now know that unchecked capital will not tolerate being taxed. Hence, the increasing popularity among mainstream-right Democrats of unions, industrial policy, and antitrust.
The household survey has gotten so noisy from month to month that I don't know what it means - maybe a poor response rate? Its total employment count has scarcely grown over the past year, and it has been shrinking relative to the establishment survey for the past 3 years. Weird, weird, and weirder.
Whichever one you believe most, EFFR has been above any reasonable rate compatible e with 2@ PCE inflation that it is time to cut and has been since December.
I though Prof. DeLong's original essay on passing the baton was one of the most honest pieces of writing I have ever seen emitted from the mainstream economics profession. Very few high-level economists will admit that any theory and practice they have advanced for 20+ years is flawed or needs to be replaced. And the number of neoliberals of any prominence who have done so is exactly one (Prof DeLong); the usual neoliberal defense against criticism is to start with denying that US-style neoliberalism exists and counterattack from that base (including of course the obligatory deflection into the history of European Neoliberal theory, which has very little to do with US neoliberalism other than the weak tea filtered through Thatcherism).
With that in mind, I'm confused on how one can argue that the younger generation of progressive and/or liberal and/or Democratic politicians has failed to "take the baton". As far as I can see the gerontocracy that runs the Democratic Party, its money sources, and its resources is still firmly in charge, and reasonably well funded by some Wall Street elements to keep the status reasonably quo (from their point of view). There is no sign that any of the remaining Peters-era neoliberals, Clinton Administration staffers (less one), or Obama Administration senior staffers are willing to concede they have made a single mistake of theory, strategy, or tactics since they were so deeply wounded on Nov 4th 1980 and vowed revenge on "the left", much less that they are willing to pass a baton to much younger critics.
It isn't just the DC-NYC axis though. I track the politics of the City of St. Louis and the surrounding County and for the last 15 years any young politician, typically a POC or other non-traditional background, who achieves any personal prominence and tries to implement any progressive change is smashed down by the alliance of old while men who are coordinated by the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, up to an including ginned up criminal prosecutions for actions that were winked at for 205 years before that. Other cities and regions in the Midwest that I am familiar with see similar actions. The old white slightly-socially-liberal, otherwise conservative men just aren't giving up their grip and deeply believe they are right not to do so.
I think you may be a bit too pessimistic. The mainstream Democratic party has given up on left-neoliberalism: the notion of taxing otherwise-unchecked capitalism, and redistributing the proceeds downward. They now know that unchecked capital will not tolerate being taxed. Hence, the increasing popularity among mainstream-right Democrats of unions, industrial policy, and antitrust.
The household survey has gotten so noisy from month to month that I don't know what it means - maybe a poor response rate? Its total employment count has scarcely grown over the past year, and it has been shrinking relative to the establishment survey for the past 3 years. Weird, weird, and weirder.
Whichever one you believe most, EFFR has been above any reasonable rate compatible e with 2@ PCE inflation that it is time to cut and has been since December.