Kamala Harris does not go high; layoffs at a low; young Steve Jobs; Harris is a prosecutor, not a perpetrator; the wannabe-Sullas of American suburbia; very briefly noted; my SubStack notes; & the...
Don't we have a problem with inflation that is intellectually worse than Germany's in the 20's? 1) unlike Germany in the '20's our inflation is _mistakenly_ attributed to fiscal policy. 2) Unlike Germany, some part of our 2021-22 inflation was real income-enhancing. 3) Unlike Germany, our central bank is too inclined to pander to popular opinion by engineering less than real income maximizing inflation.
"Also, I would say, an unwillingness to repeat the three key mistakes of the Obama administration—1) fear that the bankers had us by the plums, 2) belief that the market rapidly restores full-employment equilibrium, and 3) an all-costs desire to be Neoliberal Democrats by striking a Grand Bargain with Republicans:"
If any of these are the case, what policy error did 1) or 2) occasion? Why was 3) an error at all?
A suggested alternate wording: Kamala Harris sticks to the reality based ground game.
2nd) " Why did the U.S. miss the battery revolution?"
Because in spite of our research strength, the Fossilistas were fighting against anything other than drill, baby, drill. That is why China has the market on solar panels, electric cars, and battery production. It was de facto US policy.
C) "If conservatives' disadvantaged position in academia is not mostly the result of direct discrimination, what explains their scarcity among college faculty?…"
Genetic predisposed allergic reactions to reality.
IV) Keep up the good work, Dr. Professor DeLong. I read you every fucking day.
According to Long Hard Road, the intercalation battery was invented by Ford in the early 1960s. Ford even developed a prototype electric car using it. The battery operated at about 450F, the temperature of a hot oven. It was full of hot sulphur. You can imagine what Ralph Nader or perhaps Christian evangelicals would have made of that if it had been widely adopted.
The main developments in battery technology since then until recently have been better NiCad batteries - I remember how amazing they were to me in the late 1960s - NiMH batteries, and alkaline batteries. Lithium ion batteries didn't get developed until someone had a problem and needed a smaller, more powerful battery, and that was the Japanese who needed them for handheld camcorders. It resembles the way electric motors were reinvented after people started putting them in desktop computer disk drives.
It was a niche application that pushed development for the same reason that NASA was alone developing solar power for satellites or integrated circuits for lunar landing platforms in the 1960s. Lead acid batteries were more than adequate for stationary power backup. If you visited a telephone exchange, you'd see rack after rack of conventional car batteries. Compare a circa 1990 handheld video camcorder with a circa 2000 handheld video camcorder. A VHS tape cartridge fit comfortably in the former, but a much smaller recording format was needed for the latter.
I think people underestimate the attraction of good enough technology. It's hard to sell a better mousetrap when the existing ones have kept mice well under control. You can find countless examples of technological stasis and then stasis ended by a new application.
The time lag from changes in interest rates until changes in employment and inflation is approximately 18 months. Therefore, if the Fed waits for proof of sustained normalization of employment and inflation to unwind prior rate decisions, then the Fed is always late. They need to have a target interest rate which they revert towards outside of crises, or else they whiplash markets in booms and busts.
The cyclical, categorical nature of Fed decisions results in securities markets that spend more time second guessing the Fed than forecasting operating cash flows. Perversely, this focus on the Fed makes central bankers feel more important, and thus almost as concerned about their signals to financial markets as they are about the underlying economy. They are terrified that they might have to change the direction of rate changes in the absence of a crisis, which reinforces that their tendency to reduce policy action to prolonged cutting cycles and hiking cycles.
Why did the US miss the battery revolution? Because they ceded consumer electronics to east Asia, and lithium batteries were developed for handheld devices, not autos. Which is to say, you not only learn by doing - your chance of getting lucky by doing increases too.
That TrashFuture podcast with Wyman was very good. Junkers again!
If you want a different perspective on American oligarchy, check out Timothy Snyder's "new paganism": https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Nr2Q2zGNC8. He gives the whole talk from the perspective of Norse paganism, then at the end says he could have given the same talk using Greek paganism.
I can't recommend his thesis in a straightforward way; I thought and still think that it was a bit stretched. But individual components certainly resonated.
Don't we have a problem with inflation that is intellectually worse than Germany's in the 20's? 1) unlike Germany in the '20's our inflation is _mistakenly_ attributed to fiscal policy. 2) Unlike Germany, some part of our 2021-22 inflation was real income-enhancing. 3) Unlike Germany, our central bank is too inclined to pander to popular opinion by engineering less than real income maximizing inflation.
"Also, I would say, an unwillingness to repeat the three key mistakes of the Obama administration—1) fear that the bankers had us by the plums, 2) belief that the market rapidly restores full-employment equilibrium, and 3) an all-costs desire to be Neoliberal Democrats by striking a Grand Bargain with Republicans:"
If any of these are the case, what policy error did 1) or 2) occasion? Why was 3) an error at all?
1) "Kamala Harris does not go high"
A suggested alternate wording: Kamala Harris sticks to the reality based ground game.
2nd) " Why did the U.S. miss the battery revolution?"
Because in spite of our research strength, the Fossilistas were fighting against anything other than drill, baby, drill. That is why China has the market on solar panels, electric cars, and battery production. It was de facto US policy.
C) "If conservatives' disadvantaged position in academia is not mostly the result of direct discrimination, what explains their scarcity among college faculty?…"
Genetic predisposed allergic reactions to reality.
IV) Keep up the good work, Dr. Professor DeLong. I read you every fucking day.
According to Long Hard Road, the intercalation battery was invented by Ford in the early 1960s. Ford even developed a prototype electric car using it. The battery operated at about 450F, the temperature of a hot oven. It was full of hot sulphur. You can imagine what Ralph Nader or perhaps Christian evangelicals would have made of that if it had been widely adopted.
The main developments in battery technology since then until recently have been better NiCad batteries - I remember how amazing they were to me in the late 1960s - NiMH batteries, and alkaline batteries. Lithium ion batteries didn't get developed until someone had a problem and needed a smaller, more powerful battery, and that was the Japanese who needed them for handheld camcorders. It resembles the way electric motors were reinvented after people started putting them in desktop computer disk drives.
It was a niche application that pushed development for the same reason that NASA was alone developing solar power for satellites or integrated circuits for lunar landing platforms in the 1960s. Lead acid batteries were more than adequate for stationary power backup. If you visited a telephone exchange, you'd see rack after rack of conventional car batteries. Compare a circa 1990 handheld video camcorder with a circa 2000 handheld video camcorder. A VHS tape cartridge fit comfortably in the former, but a much smaller recording format was needed for the latter.
I think people underestimate the attraction of good enough technology. It's hard to sell a better mousetrap when the existing ones have kept mice well under control. You can find countless examples of technological stasis and then stasis ended by a new application.
The time lag from changes in interest rates until changes in employment and inflation is approximately 18 months. Therefore, if the Fed waits for proof of sustained normalization of employment and inflation to unwind prior rate decisions, then the Fed is always late. They need to have a target interest rate which they revert towards outside of crises, or else they whiplash markets in booms and busts.
The cyclical, categorical nature of Fed decisions results in securities markets that spend more time second guessing the Fed than forecasting operating cash flows. Perversely, this focus on the Fed makes central bankers feel more important, and thus almost as concerned about their signals to financial markets as they are about the underlying economy. They are terrified that they might have to change the direction of rate changes in the absence of a crisis, which reinforces that their tendency to reduce policy action to prolonged cutting cycles and hiking cycles.
Why did the US miss the battery revolution? Because they ceded consumer electronics to east Asia, and lithium batteries were developed for handheld devices, not autos. Which is to say, you not only learn by doing - your chance of getting lucky by doing increases too.
That TrashFuture podcast with Wyman was very good. Junkers again!
If you want a different perspective on American oligarchy, check out Timothy Snyder's "new paganism": https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Nr2Q2zGNC8. He gives the whole talk from the perspective of Norse paganism, then at the end says he could have given the same talk using Greek paganism.
I can't recommend his thesis in a straightforward way; I thought and still think that it was a bit stretched. But individual components certainly resonated.