If anybody really wants a 500MB 608-slide deck on the history of economic growth; the review deck is only 12MB and only 29 slides: societies of domination, from stagnation to acceleration, & then...
Dear Brad: I've been following your posts for some time and enjoy. You have clearly assembled a ton of crucial evidence on past economic growth, a phenomenon that interests me greatly. Thanks for sharing! However, from reviewing the summary deck, I feel that your analysis post- 1870 is untethered to the most important input, which has been the unparalleled increase of available energy per capita, which has in turn enabled growth in the consumption of all of the material substances -- iron, copper, sand, coal/oil, etc. -- that comprose the products that constitute a high standard of living. This omission is important when extrapolating forward in time, as you try to do. Shiny new technologies will be useless if the materials needed to transform them into concrete objects cannot be assembled at affordable prices. If you are interested, I recommend Report #42 by Simon Michaux of the Geological Survey of Finland, which lays out a detailed analysis of why conversion of the global economy AT ITS PRESENT SCALE to wind and solar energy is impossible for sheer lack of materials. I furthermore think that material scarcity is the answer the the Fermi paradox -- the crust of a terrestrial planet like Earth does not contain enough accessible energy to permit intelligent beings to construct starfleets, escape the pull of gravity, and colonize the Galaxy. Yes, there is a filter in our future, and it is the end of cheap energy in the form of fossil fuels. If you would like to talk more about these topics, I'd enjoy a conversation with you. faber@ucolick.org
I really don't believe that we've already passed the Great Filter. Perhaps there are very intelligent societies on other planets who have learned to live sustainably within the ecosystem of their planet and have no need to seek out other planets. Have you read "Embracing Sub-Optimal Relationships? https://www.localfutures.org/embracing-sub-optimal-relationships/ I think we need to slow down "the acceleration" quite a bit.
Think you may enjoy William Morris' A Dream of John Ball (1886-7). Morris as (pre) second international socialist (fell out with Engels) discussing changing structures of domination with words in the mouth of John Ball, leader of 1381 peasants revolt. Chap X particularly.
I think you have a dupe here:
2024 12 07 Final Deck Econ 135 F 2024 3
80.8MB ∙ PDF file
When I do "Save Link As:" on this it suggests the name "2024_12_07_Final_Deck_Econ_135_F_2024_4_Part_3"
Which is the same name suggested for the one below.
2024 12 07 Final Deck Econ 135 F 2024 4 Part 3
80.8MB ∙ PDF file
Also, both save to my drive as:
80.7 MB (84,723,582 bytes)
which seems unlikely.
Been fixed now, thanks!
Dear Brad: I've been following your posts for some time and enjoy. You have clearly assembled a ton of crucial evidence on past economic growth, a phenomenon that interests me greatly. Thanks for sharing! However, from reviewing the summary deck, I feel that your analysis post- 1870 is untethered to the most important input, which has been the unparalleled increase of available energy per capita, which has in turn enabled growth in the consumption of all of the material substances -- iron, copper, sand, coal/oil, etc. -- that comprose the products that constitute a high standard of living. This omission is important when extrapolating forward in time, as you try to do. Shiny new technologies will be useless if the materials needed to transform them into concrete objects cannot be assembled at affordable prices. If you are interested, I recommend Report #42 by Simon Michaux of the Geological Survey of Finland, which lays out a detailed analysis of why conversion of the global economy AT ITS PRESENT SCALE to wind and solar energy is impossible for sheer lack of materials. I furthermore think that material scarcity is the answer the the Fermi paradox -- the crust of a terrestrial planet like Earth does not contain enough accessible energy to permit intelligent beings to construct starfleets, escape the pull of gravity, and colonize the Galaxy. Yes, there is a filter in our future, and it is the end of cheap energy in the form of fossil fuels. If you would like to talk more about these topics, I'd enjoy a conversation with you. faber@ucolick.org
I really don't believe that we've already passed the Great Filter. Perhaps there are very intelligent societies on other planets who have learned to live sustainably within the ecosystem of their planet and have no need to seek out other planets. Have you read "Embracing Sub-Optimal Relationships? https://www.localfutures.org/embracing-sub-optimal-relationships/ I think we need to slow down "the acceleration" quite a bit.
Think you may enjoy William Morris' A Dream of John Ball (1886-7). Morris as (pre) second international socialist (fell out with Engels) discussing changing structures of domination with words in the mouth of John Ball, leader of 1381 peasants revolt. Chap X particularly.