That COVID paper was about viral load. It doesn't account for duration of the infectious period. The vaccine changes the mix of mild and severe cases. I'm out of my wheelhouse here too, but I'm under the impression that people with mild COVID cases are infectious for a shorter period of time than people who get much sicker. If you get over the disease in a few days or a week, you will be spreading it for a shorter time than if you are suffering for weeks or months.
The number we want is the integral over the infectious duration times of the shedding viral load. This is probably a pain in the nose to measure.
Has either of you thought about addressing the economic claims of teh UK conservative party over their claim that the UK is embarked on a high-wage and high-productivity model which explains the current supply shortages?
I can see high wages occurring, but how is higher productivity to be achieved with service jobs like HGV drivers, or farm animal butchers?
It seems to me that Roubini might be right about stagflation if applied to the UK.
For Noah. Add in windpower and Nuclear moves to third place. While cost effectiveness of wind is not improving as quickly as solar, it shows no sign of slowing down. The need for storage can be reduced by robust long distance transmission, and by overbuilding solar and wind so that even in moderately unfavorable weather there is still enough. At anything like today's cost the opportunity cost of investing in Nuclear as opposed to wind/solar/storage/transmission is unacceptably high. It is largely the inability to admit that a system composed of variable sources can be created which assures continuous supply that drives the Nuclear fanboys.
Re: Acharya's paper, the takeaway for me is that in red states full of anti-vaxxers, those not vaccinated will continue to get sick and die at high rates, until they capitulate and get a shot.
That COVID paper was about viral load. It doesn't account for duration of the infectious period. The vaccine changes the mix of mild and severe cases. I'm out of my wheelhouse here too, but I'm under the impression that people with mild COVID cases are infectious for a shorter period of time than people who get much sicker. If you get over the disease in a few days or a week, you will be spreading it for a shorter time than if you are suffering for weeks or months.
The number we want is the integral over the infectious duration times of the shedding viral load. This is probably a pain in the nose to measure.
Brad, Noah,
Has either of you thought about addressing the economic claims of teh UK conservative party over their claim that the UK is embarked on a high-wage and high-productivity model which explains the current supply shortages?
I can see high wages occurring, but how is higher productivity to be achieved with service jobs like HGV drivers, or farm animal butchers?
It seems to me that Roubini might be right about stagflation if applied to the UK.
For Noah. Add in windpower and Nuclear moves to third place. While cost effectiveness of wind is not improving as quickly as solar, it shows no sign of slowing down. The need for storage can be reduced by robust long distance transmission, and by overbuilding solar and wind so that even in moderately unfavorable weather there is still enough. At anything like today's cost the opportunity cost of investing in Nuclear as opposed to wind/solar/storage/transmission is unacceptably high. It is largely the inability to admit that a system composed of variable sources can be created which assures continuous supply that drives the Nuclear fanboys.
Re: Acharya's paper, the takeaway for me is that in red states full of anti-vaxxers, those not vaccinated will continue to get sick and die at high rates, until they capitulate and get a shot.