A preview of my weekly read-around for the Washington Center for Equitable Growth... Burning rubber and leaving skidmarks as you rejoin traffic at speed is not the same thing as boiling over and melting your engine—as my sister did one memorable day to her Saab on the BQE..
No doubt India's surge is a serious risk for the world, as well as a humanitarian disaster. So how should we respond. They want vaccines, and we seem surprisingly reluctant to send our growing surplus. But even if we did, it would only cover a few percentage points of the population. I fear that at this point many of those receiving the jabs, would have already had it, as I suspect that perhaps half the population may have gotten it by the time the shots are ready -and the delay between the shot and effective immunity is long. Of course it has been demonstrated that at least for the mRNA vaccines, that the resulting immunity is better than that acquired by natural infection. So even if the jab's arrive too late to have much effect on the current wave, they are still badly needed.
Another frightening outbreak is occurring in the nearby Seychelles. Notable because they have the highest nominal vaccination rate in the world. But they have used SinoPharm, and unless the Chinese are lying -or they have a real breakthrough strain, it should have been 75% effective.
Brad, I have been surprised by the following disconnect. State revenues should be off, and spending due to the pandemic was way up. So why is California reporting a record surplus? I'm guessing capital gains are the answer, but a $75B surplus when last summer we were expecting a deficit of similar magnitude -driven largely by the states portion of enhanced unemployment seems pretty extraordinary.
re: "explore the genetic space it can occupy in a way to make it more virulent (although there does not seem to be selection pressure to make it more deadly):"
If the coronavirus can continue to be symptom-free for a week or two before killing the host, then there may be ample genotypic space for its phenotype to become much more virulent. I don't expect it, but it is possible. It is clear, as you suggest, that India is a vast experimental petri-dish that the world is not taking seriously enough. We could be making one of our biggest short-termism mistakes to help as much as possible, rather than seeing to our own and hoping India can cope with minimal help.
No doubt India's surge is a serious risk for the world, as well as a humanitarian disaster. So how should we respond. They want vaccines, and we seem surprisingly reluctant to send our growing surplus. But even if we did, it would only cover a few percentage points of the population. I fear that at this point many of those receiving the jabs, would have already had it, as I suspect that perhaps half the population may have gotten it by the time the shots are ready -and the delay between the shot and effective immunity is long. Of course it has been demonstrated that at least for the mRNA vaccines, that the resulting immunity is better than that acquired by natural infection. So even if the jab's arrive too late to have much effect on the current wave, they are still badly needed.
Another frightening outbreak is occurring in the nearby Seychelles. Notable because they have the highest nominal vaccination rate in the world. But they have used SinoPharm, and unless the Chinese are lying -or they have a real breakthrough strain, it should have been 75% effective.
Brad, I have been surprised by the following disconnect. State revenues should be off, and spending due to the pandemic was way up. So why is California reporting a record surplus? I'm guessing capital gains are the answer, but a $75B surplus when last summer we were expecting a deficit of similar magnitude -driven largely by the states portion of enhanced unemployment seems pretty extraordinary.
re: "explore the genetic space it can occupy in a way to make it more virulent (although there does not seem to be selection pressure to make it more deadly):"
If the coronavirus can continue to be symptom-free for a week or two before killing the host, then there may be ample genotypic space for its phenotype to become much more virulent. I don't expect it, but it is possible. It is clear, as you suggest, that India is a vast experimental petri-dish that the world is not taking seriously enough. We could be making one of our biggest short-termism mistakes to help as much as possible, rather than seeing to our own and hoping India can cope with minimal help.