Things that went whizzing by that I want to remember... First: I find this from Mervyn King for Bloomberg annoying. Yes, the risk of inflation is “real”—as it was not in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, and 2019, in all of which we were assured that it was very real indeed. But the risk that the recovery will be anemic is real as well. If inflation risks turn out to materialize, the Federal Reserve has a straightforward way of handling them. If anemic-recovery risks materialize, there is no path to easily handle them. Given the immense uncertainties, an ability to do the math of option value under asymmetric risks mandates that the sensible thing to do is to prioritize rapid recovery now, and to wait until early 2023 to see where we are with respect to inflation.
With respect to Mervyn King and the concern for inflation, I think you're mistaking the word "inflation" for the technical sense of the term among professional economists. In this context, and I think just about always in a political context, "inflation" means "conditions such that notional wages are increasing". (conditions such that real wages are consistently and generally increasing are generally described as communism, that is, axiomatically intolerable.)
From the viewpoint being presented, the economy exists to increase and perpetuate the relative advantage of the currently rich. If it does anything else, it's not functioning properly and must be corrected. Any notion of general prosperity is something any oligarchy is against.
Re: Mervyn King. Isn't this another case of "not marking one's beliefs to market"? The Wikipedia entry on King suggests to me that the housing bubble and financial collapse has become an idée fixe and subsequent austerity measures are his attempt at redemption to prevent a repeat of bubble formation. IMO, this seems to be the reason for his inflation fears after the injection of so much money to support the economy during the pandemic.
Re: Origin of sars-cov-2. I am of the cynical opinion the whole lab leak theory is just another Republican attempt to support Trump and discredit anyone who disagreed with him. Trump says it was a leak, so it was a leak. Experts said otherwise, contradicted Dear Leader's suggestions for control and treatment, so they must be punished. If it was a leak and hidden by China, then the problems of the 2020 economy could be deflected as "enemy action" by China.
IMO, the issue of how the outbreak started is far less important than our [continuing] response to it. Both the US and UK exhibited appalling responses, and the resulting death rates affirm this. That the wealthy nations have failed to sufficiently help the poorer nations is another response failure that may yet come back to bite us. In my more cynical moments, I wonder if this lack of effective response is really an attempt to prove that doing nothing would have been as effective a strategy as taking steps, supporting those who thought the vulnerable should die for the sake of "preserving the economy". Many decades ago, I visited a rural general practitioner in the UK who stated that a good flu season would help remove the burden of the elderly clogging up his medical practice.
The US had a peace time army in 1941. We haven't had one since. For a good movie on the dysfunctions of a peace time army, check out From Here To Eternity.
Re: CO2 andf temperature rise: "It is quite a linear relationship, with a 2.7°C increase for a doubling of CO₂ concentration. This includes non-CO₂ effects, which approximately cancel… "
I hope he is right, but this may only apply to the changes we have measured. There may be severe tipping points if temperature rises invoke other +ve feedbacks like methane releases in the sub-Arctic and reduced albedo from the loss of sea ice and large ice sheets. These feedbacks may not cancel out at some point. The precautionary principle should be used rather than hoping some technological advances will save us from catastrophe.
Re: Rebuilding Journalism. Newspaper journalism has always had a problem with bias, and in extremis, deliberately misleading readers. Press barons use their newspapers to shape public opinion and to control those in power. It is going to take a lot of effort to ensure that any new approach avoids this. Even in Neal Stephenson's "Anathem", the idea of how trusted information sources could be possible was hand-waved away, a problem social media is grappling with today. I don't believe it is even possible, as ideas and politics are not like science where experiments can reliably pare away the falsehoods and expose an ever refined approximation to "truth". OTOH, I use Wikipedia a lot and routinely send them money, I hope his project has some legs.
I have zip all knowledge of military affairs, so take this observation for what little it is worth. The bombing of Pearl was a creative masterstroke in attempting to cripple the US's ability to project force across the Pacific. I am not aware of any obvious prior examples of this type of action, except possibly the attempt to cripple the RAF by the Luftwaffe in 1940. Lack of US anticipation could be an example of a lack of imagination and the old adage that nations fight using the strategies and tactics of the previous war.
With respect to Mervyn King and the concern for inflation, I think you're mistaking the word "inflation" for the technical sense of the term among professional economists. In this context, and I think just about always in a political context, "inflation" means "conditions such that notional wages are increasing". (conditions such that real wages are consistently and generally increasing are generally described as communism, that is, axiomatically intolerable.)
From the viewpoint being presented, the economy exists to increase and perpetuate the relative advantage of the currently rich. If it does anything else, it's not functioning properly and must be corrected. Any notion of general prosperity is something any oligarchy is against.
Re: Mervyn King. Isn't this another case of "not marking one's beliefs to market"? The Wikipedia entry on King suggests to me that the housing bubble and financial collapse has become an idée fixe and subsequent austerity measures are his attempt at redemption to prevent a repeat of bubble formation. IMO, this seems to be the reason for his inflation fears after the injection of so much money to support the economy during the pandemic.
Re: Origin of sars-cov-2. I am of the cynical opinion the whole lab leak theory is just another Republican attempt to support Trump and discredit anyone who disagreed with him. Trump says it was a leak, so it was a leak. Experts said otherwise, contradicted Dear Leader's suggestions for control and treatment, so they must be punished. If it was a leak and hidden by China, then the problems of the 2020 economy could be deflected as "enemy action" by China.
IMO, the issue of how the outbreak started is far less important than our [continuing] response to it. Both the US and UK exhibited appalling responses, and the resulting death rates affirm this. That the wealthy nations have failed to sufficiently help the poorer nations is another response failure that may yet come back to bite us. In my more cynical moments, I wonder if this lack of effective response is really an attempt to prove that doing nothing would have been as effective a strategy as taking steps, supporting those who thought the vulnerable should die for the sake of "preserving the economy". Many decades ago, I visited a rural general practitioner in the UK who stated that a good flu season would help remove the burden of the elderly clogging up his medical practice.
The US had a peace time army in 1941. We haven't had one since. For a good movie on the dysfunctions of a peace time army, check out From Here To Eternity.
Re: CO2 andf temperature rise: "It is quite a linear relationship, with a 2.7°C increase for a doubling of CO₂ concentration. This includes non-CO₂ effects, which approximately cancel… "
I hope he is right, but this may only apply to the changes we have measured. There may be severe tipping points if temperature rises invoke other +ve feedbacks like methane releases in the sub-Arctic and reduced albedo from the loss of sea ice and large ice sheets. These feedbacks may not cancel out at some point. The precautionary principle should be used rather than hoping some technological advances will save us from catastrophe.
Re: Rebuilding Journalism. Newspaper journalism has always had a problem with bias, and in extremis, deliberately misleading readers. Press barons use their newspapers to shape public opinion and to control those in power. It is going to take a lot of effort to ensure that any new approach avoids this. Even in Neal Stephenson's "Anathem", the idea of how trusted information sources could be possible was hand-waved away, a problem social media is grappling with today. I don't believe it is even possible, as ideas and politics are not like science where experiments can reliably pare away the falsehoods and expose an ever refined approximation to "truth". OTOH, I use Wikipedia a lot and routinely send them money, I hope his project has some legs.
Re: Japanese bombing of Pearl Harbor.
I have zip all knowledge of military affairs, so take this observation for what little it is worth. The bombing of Pearl was a creative masterstroke in attempting to cripple the US's ability to project force across the Pacific. I am not aware of any obvious prior examples of this type of action, except possibly the attempt to cripple the RAF by the Luftwaffe in 1940. Lack of US anticipation could be an example of a lack of imagination and the old adage that nations fight using the strategies and tactics of the previous war.