¨Which is the right analogy for what is going to happen now? First Fallujah, Second Fallujah, or something else?:¨
Some folks are looking for Fallujah, but Hamas is looking for Mosul 2016, I think.
¨For years long-time Israeli Prime Minister pursued a strategy of funding and boosting Hamas, with the idea that a stronger Hamas meant a weaker Fatah, and thus made resisting calls for a Palestinian state more possible.¨
Apparently everyone thought Hamas was better than Fatah and Hezbollah. I was apparently stuck back there at ´Hamas is a terrorist group, and worse than Hezbollah and much worse than Fatah.´
¨Was the Hamas plan to cross the border, attack some military bases, seize some hostages, and hightail it back? Or was the plan to kill as many civilians as possible in order to make it impossible for the IDF to not pursue into the urban soon-to-become-a-hellscape that is Gaza?¨
Yes. Everybody tried Al-Queda tactics for awhile because of 9/11, but they moved on to ISIS tactics - which didn´t succeed either, but were much more bloodily successful than AQ. ISIS took territory. In this situation Hamas can´t really figure on taking territory, but they can get the IDF into a positive of having to chase, so they are presumably hoping to max out IDF casualties and Palestinian casualties. Also, they have hostages. They´re set to play whatever game Bibi wants to play. End goal is that they would be hoping for big countries to come in on their side, but whatever. They are maxxing out damage to the Israelis.
On the Not-Hamas side is the War with Iran crowd, that is likely looking to cover for Bibi and his cabinet (currently trying to stay home and do some whistling past the graveyard) and get that war they´ve been wanting since ever. (Additional bonus point: Putin has to play nice with the Iranians because they´re his weapon supplier, so it looks like a good opportunity & a necessity for our right-wing friends to try and knife Ukraine and help their boy in the Kremlin out. Maybe toss Chairman Xi a backhander while they´re at it.)
Basically Hamas and Not-Hamas agree: a wholesale Middle Eastern conflagration would be great for business.
¨What is going to be the ratio of Hamas leader and foot-soldier deaths to Palestinian civilian deaths? What is going to be the ratio of Hamas leader and foot-soldier deaths to IDF soldier deaths?¨
¨Which is the right analogy for what is going to happen now? First Fallujah, Second Fallujah, or something else?:¨
Some folks are looking for Fallujah, but Hamas is looking for Mosul 2016, I think.
¨For years long-time Israeli Prime Minister pursued a strategy of funding and boosting Hamas, with the idea that a stronger Hamas meant a weaker Fatah, and thus made resisting calls for a Palestinian state more possible.¨
Apparently everyone thought Hamas was better than Fatah and Hezbollah. I was apparently stuck back there at ´Hamas is a terrorist group, and worse than Hezbollah and much worse than Fatah.´
¨Was the Hamas plan to cross the border, attack some military bases, seize some hostages, and hightail it back? Or was the plan to kill as many civilians as possible in order to make it impossible for the IDF to not pursue into the urban soon-to-become-a-hellscape that is Gaza?¨
Yes. Everybody tried Al-Queda tactics for awhile because of 9/11, but they moved on to ISIS tactics - which didn´t succeed either, but were much more bloodily successful than AQ. ISIS took territory. In this situation Hamas can´t really figure on taking territory, but they can get the IDF into a positive of having to chase, so they are presumably hoping to max out IDF casualties and Palestinian casualties. Also, they have hostages. They´re set to play whatever game Bibi wants to play. End goal is that they would be hoping for big countries to come in on their side, but whatever. They are maxxing out damage to the Israelis.
On the Not-Hamas side is the War with Iran crowd, that is likely looking to cover for Bibi and his cabinet (currently trying to stay home and do some whistling past the graveyard) and get that war they´ve been wanting since ever. (Additional bonus point: Putin has to play nice with the Iranians because they´re his weapon supplier, so it looks like a good opportunity & a necessity for our right-wing friends to try and knife Ukraine and help their boy in the Kremlin out. Maybe toss Chairman Xi a backhander while they´re at it.)
Basically Hamas and Not-Hamas agree: a wholesale Middle Eastern conflagration would be great for business.
¨What is going to be the ratio of Hamas leader and foot-soldier deaths to Palestinian civilian deaths? What is going to be the ratio of Hamas leader and foot-soldier deaths to IDF soldier deaths?¨
I´ll get back to you.
elm
gotta do the math