Is there a right historical analogy for Gaza 2023; the spreadsheet job apocalype; how is the human brain special?; very briefly noted; lots of people on Claudia Goldin, Dan Wang on China's scale &...
¨Which is the right analogy for what is going to happen now? First Fallujah, Second Fallujah, or something else?:¨
Some folks are looking for Fallujah, but Hamas is looking for Mosul 2016, I think.
¨For years long-time Israeli Prime Minister pursued a strategy of funding and boosting Hamas, with the idea that a stronger Hamas meant a weaker Fatah, and thus made resisting calls for a Palestinian state more possible.¨
Apparently everyone thought Hamas was better than Fatah and Hezbollah. I was apparently stuck back there at ´Hamas is a terrorist group, and worse than Hezbollah and much worse than Fatah.´
¨Was the Hamas plan to cross the border, attack some military bases, seize some hostages, and hightail it back? Or was the plan to kill as many civilians as possible in order to make it impossible for the IDF to not pursue into the urban soon-to-become-a-hellscape that is Gaza?¨
Yes. Everybody tried Al-Queda tactics for awhile because of 9/11, but they moved on to ISIS tactics - which didn´t succeed either, but were much more bloodily successful than AQ. ISIS took territory. In this situation Hamas can´t really figure on taking territory, but they can get the IDF into a positive of having to chase, so they are presumably hoping to max out IDF casualties and Palestinian casualties. Also, they have hostages. They´re set to play whatever game Bibi wants to play. End goal is that they would be hoping for big countries to come in on their side, but whatever. They are maxxing out damage to the Israelis.
On the Not-Hamas side is the War with Iran crowd, that is likely looking to cover for Bibi and his cabinet (currently trying to stay home and do some whistling past the graveyard) and get that war they´ve been wanting since ever. (Additional bonus point: Putin has to play nice with the Iranians because they´re his weapon supplier, so it looks like a good opportunity & a necessity for our right-wing friends to try and knife Ukraine and help their boy in the Kremlin out. Maybe toss Chairman Xi a backhander while they´re at it.)
Basically Hamas and Not-Hamas agree: a wholesale Middle Eastern conflagration would be great for business.
¨What is going to be the ratio of Hamas leader and foot-soldier deaths to Palestinian civilian deaths? What is going to be the ratio of Hamas leader and foot-soldier deaths to IDF soldier deaths?¨
Is the human brain special?: What a fantastic explanation in the end of this podcast for why discount rates are intelligence in a very specific way, why they matter, why they are not exogenous, why social behaviors we bequeath as a society to future generations matter, and, as Jim Heckman would give you empirical evidence, much of it starts at a very early age. We aren't special because our brains are not special. Thank you for this!
Her explanations might be a good way to introduce/discuss a discount rate in undergrad teaching. Definitely worth mentioning in grad econ: in multi-period models we use a discount rate not just because the functional wouldn't converge mathematically without it.
Also wanted to say: Just like cooking food is a way we have "cheated," to use her word, I would say that public health infrastructure is another way we have "cheated." Brad, well functioning arterial sewage and water supply systems are a very modern thing. They can be traced back only to the late nineteenth century. In the material I keep promising to send you, but haven't so far, this comes across as one of the important ways the masses were able to taste the "economic pie" that has enlarged so much since then. On that issue, even some of the lowest rungs on the economic ladder today seem to be better off than royalty a century or two ago.
Oops, I thought you had responded to my poetry comment today. But yeah, the moment she spoke about intelligence, after defining it carefully, light bulbs came on right away.
Claudia Goldin's Nobel Prize: Loved it! I've been telling my family about her work (and yes they were interested). I spoke to her briefly once and it was an illuminating exchange. Can't imagine all the good stuff her students, who have spent more time with her, have received over the years. But I may be partial toward people who have researched/linked economic history with current issues. Regardless, this prize was a reason to celebrate, her work and our discipline.
Historical precedent for this? Even the Kishinev pogroms (1903-05) killed far fewer. It's the Nazi military and SS killing Jews in Eastern Europe in the immediate wake of the blitzkrieg.
¨Which is the right analogy for what is going to happen now? First Fallujah, Second Fallujah, or something else?:¨
Some folks are looking for Fallujah, but Hamas is looking for Mosul 2016, I think.
¨For years long-time Israeli Prime Minister pursued a strategy of funding and boosting Hamas, with the idea that a stronger Hamas meant a weaker Fatah, and thus made resisting calls for a Palestinian state more possible.¨
Apparently everyone thought Hamas was better than Fatah and Hezbollah. I was apparently stuck back there at ´Hamas is a terrorist group, and worse than Hezbollah and much worse than Fatah.´
¨Was the Hamas plan to cross the border, attack some military bases, seize some hostages, and hightail it back? Or was the plan to kill as many civilians as possible in order to make it impossible for the IDF to not pursue into the urban soon-to-become-a-hellscape that is Gaza?¨
Yes. Everybody tried Al-Queda tactics for awhile because of 9/11, but they moved on to ISIS tactics - which didn´t succeed either, but were much more bloodily successful than AQ. ISIS took territory. In this situation Hamas can´t really figure on taking territory, but they can get the IDF into a positive of having to chase, so they are presumably hoping to max out IDF casualties and Palestinian casualties. Also, they have hostages. They´re set to play whatever game Bibi wants to play. End goal is that they would be hoping for big countries to come in on their side, but whatever. They are maxxing out damage to the Israelis.
On the Not-Hamas side is the War with Iran crowd, that is likely looking to cover for Bibi and his cabinet (currently trying to stay home and do some whistling past the graveyard) and get that war they´ve been wanting since ever. (Additional bonus point: Putin has to play nice with the Iranians because they´re his weapon supplier, so it looks like a good opportunity & a necessity for our right-wing friends to try and knife Ukraine and help their boy in the Kremlin out. Maybe toss Chairman Xi a backhander while they´re at it.)
Basically Hamas and Not-Hamas agree: a wholesale Middle Eastern conflagration would be great for business.
¨What is going to be the ratio of Hamas leader and foot-soldier deaths to Palestinian civilian deaths? What is going to be the ratio of Hamas leader and foot-soldier deaths to IDF soldier deaths?¨
I´ll get back to you.
elm
gotta do the math
Is the human brain special?: What a fantastic explanation in the end of this podcast for why discount rates are intelligence in a very specific way, why they matter, why they are not exogenous, why social behaviors we bequeath as a society to future generations matter, and, as Jim Heckman would give you empirical evidence, much of it starts at a very early age. We aren't special because our brains are not special. Thank you for this!
Yes!
Her explanations might be a good way to introduce/discuss a discount rate in undergrad teaching. Definitely worth mentioning in grad econ: in multi-period models we use a discount rate not just because the functional wouldn't converge mathematically without it.
Also wanted to say: Just like cooking food is a way we have "cheated," to use her word, I would say that public health infrastructure is another way we have "cheated." Brad, well functioning arterial sewage and water supply systems are a very modern thing. They can be traced back only to the late nineteenth century. In the material I keep promising to send you, but haven't so far, this comes across as one of the important ways the masses were able to taste the "economic pie" that has enlarged so much since then. On that issue, even some of the lowest rungs on the economic ladder today seem to be better off than royalty a century or two ago.
Oops, I thought you had responded to my poetry comment today. But yeah, the moment she spoke about intelligence, after defining it carefully, light bulbs came on right away.
And that's a translation
One of the justifications for Israel's embargo of Gaza was to prevent Hamas from rearming. Mission not accomplished!
Bunker: Good news is good news only if the Fed decides it's not very good news. Those dot plots are worrying.
Wage Price Spirals: Do we KNOW about wages, real or otherwise? What can we conclude from unit value indexes?
Claudia Goldin's Nobel Prize: Loved it! I've been telling my family about her work (and yes they were interested). I spoke to her briefly once and it was an illuminating exchange. Can't imagine all the good stuff her students, who have spent more time with her, have received over the years. But I may be partial toward people who have researched/linked economic history with current issues. Regardless, this prize was a reason to celebrate, her work and our discipline.
Historical precedent for this? Even the Kishinev pogroms (1903-05) killed far fewer. It's the Nazi military and SS killing Jews in Eastern Europe in the immediate wake of the blitzkrieg.